Business Description
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.67
Total Equity: $18.58B
Shares: 240,370,000
Total Debt: $5.06B
Cash: $696.00M
EBITDA: $5.03B
Total Debt: $5.06B
Cash: $696.00M
Revenue: $11.65B
Revenue: $11.65B
Revenue: $11.65B
Total Equity: $18.58B
Tax Rate: 20.3%
Equity: $18.58B
Total Debt: $5.06B
Cash: $696.00M
Current Liabilities: $2.90B
Long-Term Debt: $5.01B
Total Debt: $5.06B
Total Equity: $18.58B
Shares: 240,370,000
Shares: 240,370,000
CapEx: -$2.74B
Shares: 240,370,000
Stock Price: $92.07
Net Income: $1.82B
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $11.4B | $7.8B | $4.2B | $11.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.9B | $3.3B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $6.2B |
| Gross Profit | $2.4B | $8.2B | $5.0B | $1.1B | $5.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $95.0M | $4.4B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $3.4B |
| Operating Income | $2.3B | $3.8B | $3.1B | -$803.0M | $2.0B |
| Net Income | $6.3B | $4.9B | $2.4B | -$714.0M | $1.8B |
| EBITDA | $7.3B | $5.6B | $4.8B | $1.0B | $5.0B |
| EPS | $53.66 | $38.71 | $18.21 | $-4.55 | $7.67 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $905.0M | $130.0M | $1.1B | $317.0M | $696.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.1B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.0B | $2.9B |
| Total Assets | $11.0B | $15.5B | $14.4B | $27.9B | $28.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.4B | $2.7B | $1.3B | $3.1B | $2.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $2.3B | $3.1B | $2.0B | $5.3B | $5.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $5.3B | $6.3B | $3.6B | $10.3B | $9.7B |
| Total Equity | $5.7B | $9.1B | $10.7B | $17.6B | $18.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $825.0M | $3.4B | $5.0B | $3.9B | $4.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.8B | $4.1B | $2.4B | $1.6B | $4.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$735.0M | -$1.8B | -$1.8B | -$1.6B | -$2.7B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $2.3B | $551.0M | $8.0M | $1.8B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$181.0M | -$2.0B | $2.5B | -$459.0M | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$1.1B | -$355.0M | $0 | -$100.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $635.0M | -$722.0M | $961.0M | -$758.0M | $301.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$14.3B $13.6B – $15.0B
|
$14.7B $13.9B – $15.4B
|
$15.0B $14.2B – $15.7B
|
$15.5B $14.7B – $16.3B
|
| EBITDA |
$7.9B $7.5B – $8.3B
|
$8.1B $7.7B – $8.5B
|
$8.3B $7.9B – $8.7B
|
$8.6B $8.1B – $9.0B
|
| Net Income |
$2.3B $1.7B – $2.5B
|
$2.4B $1.6B – $4.1B
|
$2.8B $2.6B – $2.9B
|
$2.9B $2.7B – $3.1B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +56.7% | -32.1% | -45.7% | +176.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +237.0% | -38.2% | -77.4% | +374.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +62.6% | -16.9% | -125.6% | +353.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -22.0% | -51.0% | -129.5% | +354.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | -23.8% | -14.5% | -78.6% | +393.8% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Wichterich Michael | P-Purchase | 1,000.00 | $88.90 | $88,900 |
| 2026-06-04 | Steck Brian | A-Award | 2,746.00 | $96.53 | $265,071 |
| 2026-06-04 | Konar Shameek | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Kehr Catherine A | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | JOHNSON S P IV | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Gallagher Matthew | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Emerson Sarah A. | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Duster Benjamin | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Duncan Timothy S. | A-Award | 2,331.00 | $96.53 | $225,011 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wichterich Michael | P-Purchase | 1,000.00 | $93.36 | $93,360 |
| 2026-06-04 | Teunissen Marcel | P-Purchase | 2,000.00 | $92.88 | $185,760 |
| 2026-05-07 | Teunissen Marcel | P-Purchase | 2,000.00 | $96.43 | $192,860 |
| 2026-04-06 | Teunissen Marcel | A-Award | 5,144.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Teunissen Marcel | A-Award | 6,001.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Teunissen Marcel | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-15 | Viets Joshua J. | M-Exempt | 1,110.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Viets Joshua J. | M-Exempt | 13,626.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Viets Joshua J. | F-InKind | 3,728.00 | $107.02 | $398,971 |
| 2026-03-15 | Viets Joshua J. | F-InKind | 6,462.00 | $107.02 | $691,563 |
| 2026-03-15 | Viets Joshua J. | A-Award | 10,815.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $0.58 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-14 | 2026-06-04 |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.58 | 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-26 |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.58 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-12-04 |
| 2025-08-14 | $1.47 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-09-04 |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.58 | 2025-04-29 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-06-04 |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.58 | 2024-10-29 | 2024-11-14 | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.58 | 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-05 |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.72 | 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-16 | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-03-06 | $0.58 | 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-26 | |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.58 | 2023-11-16 | 2023-12-06 | |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.58 | 2023-08-17 | 2023-09-06 | |
| 2023-05-17 | $1.18 | 2023-05-02 | 2023-05-18 | 2023-06-06 |
| 2023-03-06 | $1.29 | 2023-02-21 | 2023-03-07 | 2023-03-23 |
| 2022-11-14 | $3.16 | 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-15 | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-08-16 | $2.32 | 2022-08-02 | 2022-08-17 | 2022-09-01 |
| 2022-05-18 | $2.34 | 2022-05-04 | 2022-05-19 | 2022-06-02 |
| 2022-03-04 | $1.77 | 2022-02-23 | 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-22 |
| 2021-11-23 | $0.44 | 2021-11-24 | 2021-12-09 | |
| 2021-08-23 | $0.34 | 2021-08-24 | 2021-09-09 | |
| 2021-05-21 | $0.34 | 2021-05-24 | 2021-06-10 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw numbers tell a cleaner story than the model commentary admits: this is a post-merger gas E&P where the Chesapeake/Southwestern combination distorts every YoY comparison. Q2 2024 revenue of $503M versus Q1 2026 of $4.40B isn't 8x organic growth — it's a deal closing. So the 176% "recent revenue YoY" and 22.4% revenue CAGR are arithmetic artifacts, not signal. What matters: sequential quarterly trajectory shows rev going $2.20B → $3.69B → $2.97B → $3.05B → $4.40B, with margins swinging 26% → 18% → 18% → 26%. That's classic Henry Hub sensitivity — Q1 2026 caught the winter strip when gas printed above $3.50/mcf. The Q1 2026 $1.16B net income annualized ($4.6B) is the cyclical peak, not the run rate.
On valuation, EV/EBITDA of 3.5x and P/E of 6.8x look optically cheap, but the TTM denominator is loaded with the Q1 2026 spike and two strong middle quarters. Normalize: 2025 full-year NI was $1.82B on $11.65B revenue (15.6% margin), giving a more honest P/E around 12x at the $22B cap — exactly what the synthesis verdict admits. FCF of $1.84B against $2.74B capex means the $4.58B operating cash flow is being half-consumed by drilling — a 6.2% FCF yield at current price, not the headline-cheap number the multiples suggest. The fcf_cagr of 82.7% is meaningless given 2024 was a trough year ($4.22B rev, operating loss of $803M); you can't compound off a bottom. Cash of $696M with undisclosed debt is a real gap — Expand carries roughly $5B of net debt post-merger, which the tile is hiding.
I largely agree with the synthesis "Reasonable Premium" call but think the prior models are too sanguine about cyclicality and too forgiving of the data gaps. The pre-flight is right that this is commodity-cyclical, not mature_earner — the rule-based classification at 0.7 confidence is wrong; margins from -45% to +26% within seven quarters disqualify the "mature earner" label entirely. The contrarian argument writes itself: Q1 2026 is the high-water mark, gas curves are in contango but production growth from Permian associated gas plus Haynesville completions is structurally bearish for 2027 strip pricing, and LNG export capacity additions (Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Rio Grande) are already in consensus models — they don't surprise to the upside from here. If gas reverts to $2.75-3.00/mcf for two quarters, EXE prints sub-15% margins again and the "6.8x P/E" becomes 14-16x on trough earnings. The insider buying in May-June 2026 is encouraging but the share counts are tiny (1,000-2,000 shares) — these are token buys, not conviction signals; treat the "Significant Insider Buying" tag with skepticism.
What I'd actually pay: at a normalized $2B FCF, 8% required yield for a commodity producer with real but cyclical assets, fair value sits around $25B EV or roughly $85-95 equity per share after debt. That brackets the current $92.07 print — meaning the stock is fairly valued, not cheap. The synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium" is directionally right but the framing is off: this isn't a premium worth paying for quality, it's a fair price for cyclical exposure where your entry timing matters more than the multiple. The 2.92% dividend yield plus modest buyback gives you a ~5-6% capital return while you wait, but you're underwriting Henry Hub above $3.25/mcf to make the math work. The market thesis is correctly priced; there's no edge here unless you have a differentiated view on 2026-2027 gas. I'd dissent mildly from the implicit "buy" tone of the synthesis — fairly valued is not a recommendation.
GPT Critique
In my independent analysis of Expand Energy Corporation, the standout feature is the remarkable revenue and net income growth observed over recent quarters. The revenue surged from $503 million in Q2 2024 to $4.40 billion in Q1 2026, a growth that seems driven significantly by the merger with Chesapeake, as opposed to organic growth. This merger has seemingly inflated the YoY growth rates, leading to a 176% recent revenue YoY increase and a 22.4% revenue CAGR, which I agree are arithmetic artifacts rather than indicative of sustainable growth. The company's margins have fluctuated considerably from -45.1% to 26.4% over the last two years, highlighting its sensitivity to the volatile gas market. The net income turnaround, from significant losses in 2024 to $1.16 billion in Q1 2026, points to a cyclical peak rather than a stable performance trend.
Claude Opus accurately notes that the P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios appear cheap at first glance but are distorted by recent earnings spikes. I agree with his assessment that a more normalized view, based on 2025 full-year figures, suggests a P/E of around 12x, which aligns with typical valuations for a mature commodity producer. The company's free cash flow yield, when viewed against its capex, reveals a less optimistic picture than the headline numbers suggest, supporting my view that the company is consuming a significant portion of its operating cash flow in sustaining its operations.
Where I diverge from Opus is in the treatment of insider transactions. While Opus minimizes the significance of recent insider purchases, I believe that even token purchases can signal management's confidence in the company's future prospects, albeit not as strongly as larger acquisitions would. Furthermore, I find the lack of disclosed total debt concerning, especially given the significant post-merger net debt Opus mentions. This omission limits a comprehensive risk assessment of the company's financial leverage.
A careful skeptic might argue that both analyses underestimate the potential structural headwinds from expanding LNG export capacities and renewable energy's impact on natural gas demand. They could also point out that the cyclical nature of the energy sector means that current financial health could quickly deteriorate with adverse commodity price shifts, challenging both our conclusions about the company's valuation stability.