Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$51.44
6-month call
Bear -9.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$46.80
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.0% to $46.80
Predicted High
$51.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$46.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 7:46 pm
Bear
FAST trends lower to
$46.80
(-9.0% from $51.44)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFAST is a high-quality compounder trading at roughly 2x composite fair value after a 14% rally, so momentum and low beta support near-term stickiness while valuation gravity slowly pulls the price down toward the anchored-PE zone over months.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $54 on strong volume, or a positive pre-announcement, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $51.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $51.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $49.09–$53.79 typical range · internal point $51.90 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price slightly higher |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $48.04–$54.84 typical range · internal point $51.20 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Rally digestion begins as valuation headlines accumulate |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $49.80 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Value-fatigue caps upside, mild drift lower |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $48.60 | — | -5.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation, no catalyst to push higher |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $48.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation out of expensive defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $47.40 | — | -7.9% | 4/10 | January reset, gravity toward anchored-PE zone |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $46.80 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE fair value near 46 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.12 (-8.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $51.44 |
| Composite fair value | $25.32 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $28.18 |
| DCF fair value | $21.16 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $46.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -54 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +84 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.5% 3m 22.9% 6m 25.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.61 3m 0.44 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | FAST-20260819-122707-fcf2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FAST-20260819-172808-b0dc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FAST-20260819-172808-b0dc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FAST-20260819-172808-b0dc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FAST-20260819-172808-b0dc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | FAST-20260819-122707-fcf2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | FAST-20260819-122707-fcf2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $51.44 | $46.80 | -9.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.