FCNCA
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First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$2,179.12
6-month call
Bear -6.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$2,030.00
Great value below
$1,500.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.8% to $2,030.00
Predicted High
$2,165.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$2,030.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:10 pm
Bear
FCNCA trends lower to
$2,030.00
(-6.8% from $2,179.12)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisFCNCA trades far above composite fair value near $1,300 with negative sentiment and rolling momentum, but the low beta and consistent earnings beats blunt any fast repricing. Expect a slow grind lower as value gravity works over months, roughly tracking the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $2,300 on strong volume, or a surprise beat-and-raise that reignites momentum, would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $2,179.12 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $2,179.12 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $2,063.69–$2,294.55 typical range · internal point $2,165.00 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Soft sentiment and risk-off drift, low beta cushions |
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $2,011.85–$2,346.39 typical range · internal point $2,145.00 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Momentum rollover continues, no catalyst to defend |
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $2,115.00 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Value gap pressure builds as tape stays neutral |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $2,085.00 | — | -4.3% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended quality names |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $2,075.00 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | January reset, possible earnings beat stabilizes |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $2,050.00 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | Post-print fade resumes toward fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $2,030.00 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward deterministic endpoint zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $2,037.70 (-6.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $2,179.12 |
| Composite fair value | $1,292.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $1,326.26 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,292.65 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $1,500.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +23 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.2% 3m 26.6% 6m 25.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.76 3m -0.08 5m 0.15 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | FCNCA-20260902-050001-eda4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-FCNCA-20260902-060332-422a |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-FCNCA-20260902-060332-422a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-FCNCA-20260902-060332-422a |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-FCNCA-20260902-060332-422a |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | FCNCA-20260902-050001-eda4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $2,179.12 | $2,030.00 | -6.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.