Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$10.85
6-month call
Bear -27.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$7.90
Great value below
$6.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-27.2% to $7.90
Predicted High
$10.70
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$7.90
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-27.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:41 am
Bear
FIGS trends lower to
$7.90
(-27.2% from $10.85)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisFIGS trades at a large premium to every valuation anchor with deteriorating sentiment and weak quality, but no imminent catalyst forces immediate repricing. Expect a slow bleed toward fair value with intermittent bounces on risk-on tape, ending materially below current levels though not fully at DCF.
Invalidated ifA sustained move above 12.50 on volume, or a blowout earnings print resetting the growth narrative, would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $10.85 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $10.85 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $9.17–$12.53 typical range · internal point $10.70 | — | ±15.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime cushions near-term drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $14.21 on Aug 19, 2026 = +30.9% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 32.3 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±15.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $8.41–$13.29 typical range · internal point $10.35 | — | ±22.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment cracks pressure premium multiple modestly |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $9.90 | — | -8.8% | 5/10 | Approaching earnings window, normalization fears build |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $9.20 | — | -15.2% | 5/10 | Earnings print risk and forensic concerns weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $8.70 | — | -19.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $8.30 | — | -23.5% | 4/10 | Continued derating as cult narrative fades |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $7.90 | — | -27.2% | 3/10 | Grinds toward DCF anchor, still above bear case |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $9.96 (-8.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $10.85 |
| Composite fair value | $5.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $5.02 |
| DCF fair value | $6.81 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $3.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $6.50 |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +20 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.2% 3m 77.8% 6m 76.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.28 3m -0.24 5m 0.57 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | FIGS-20260803-120807-9adf |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-FIGS-20260803-131414-5948 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-FIGS-20260803-131414-5948 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-FIGS-20260803-131414-5948 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-FIGS-20260803-131414-5948 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | FIGS-20260803-120807-9adf |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | FIGS-20260803-120807-9adf |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $10.85 | $7.90 | -27.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.