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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Figs Inc. (FIGS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -31 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 20 · Value -72 · Sentiment -72 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $6.29 vs $11.21 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Figs Inc.

FIGS NYSE
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Santa Monica, CA 90404, United States wearfigs.com Updated Aug 3, 12:09pm
Price
$11.08
Market Cap
$1.8B
Employees
330
Beta
1.02
Avg Volume
2,982,122
CEO
Ms. Catherine Eva Spear

Figs Inc. is a specialized apparel company focused on designing and selling stylish, high-performance medical scrubs and apparel. Its primary function is to provide healthcare professionals with comfortable, durable, and functional workwear that integrates innovative fabric technology. Known for its direct-to-consumer business model, Figs Inc. utilizes e-commerce to efficiently distribute its products, making it a notable player in the online retail space. The company emphasizes sustainability, ethical manufacturing practices, and social impact, often engaging in initiatives that support healthcare communities. Operating within the evolving healthcare and retail sectors, Figs Inc. taps into the growing demand for advanced medical apparel solutions. The brand has carved out a significant niche in the market, redefining traditional views of medical uniforms by blending fashion-forward design with utility. Established in Los Angeles, Figs Inc. is positioned as a leader in the niche industry of medical apparel, reflecting both the changing needs of healthcare professionals and the increasing importance of functional fashion in various professional fields.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:23pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$11.15
as of Aug 3, 12:47pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+0.45 (+4.21%)
Day Range
$10.67 – $11.15
52-Week Range
$6.07 – $17.48
50-Day MA
$11.03
200-Day MA
$11.80
Volume
1,055,392.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 166,735,224.00
Float 152,525,835.00
Free Float 91.5%
High free float — 91.5% of shares trade freely, ~8.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:22pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
58.29
Stock Price: $11.08
EPS (Diluted): 0.19
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.54
Stock Price: $11.08
Total Equity: $437.46M
Shares: 179,486,886
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
36.15
Market Cap: $1.79B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $81.99M
EBITDA: $47.18M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.7B
Market Cap: $1.79B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $81.99M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
66.5%
Gross Profit: $419.84M
Revenue: $631.10M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
6.0%
Operating Income: $38.15M
Revenue: $631.10M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.4%
Net Income: $34.25M
Revenue: $631.10M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
7.8%
Net Income: $34.25M
Total Equity: $437.46M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
7.8%
Operating Income: $38.15M
Tax Rate: 27.4%
Equity: $437.46M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $81.99M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.94
Current Assets: $447.29M
Current Liabilities: $90.52M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $437.46M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$3.52
Revenue: $631.10M
Shares: 179,486,886
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$2.44
Total Equity: $437.46M
Shares: 179,486,886
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.30
Operating CF: $61.17M
CapEx: -$8.17M
Shares: 179,486,886
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $11.08
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $34.25M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:22pm
Compares FIGS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $419.6M $505.8M $545.6M $555.6M $631.1M
Cost of Revenue $118.4M $151.4M $168.7M $179.9M $211.3M
Gross Profit $301.2M $354.5M $377.0M $375.6M $419.8M
Operating Expenses $290.2M $316.8M $342.9M $373.4M $381.7M
Operating Income $11.0M $37.7M $34.0M $2.3M $38.1M
Net Income -$9.6M $21.2M $22.6M $2.7M $34.3M
EBITDA $12.4M $39.6M $37.0M $9.0M $47.2M
EPS $-0.06 $0.13 $0.13 $0.02 $0.21
EPS (Diluted) $-0.06 $0.11 $0.12 $0.02 $0.19
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:10pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $195.4M $159.8M $144.2M $85.6M $82.0M
Total Current Assets $293.3M $356.5M $385.7M $382.8M $447.3M
Total Assets $311.8M $395.1M $473.2M $509.8M $580.0M
Current Liabilities $62.4M $71.4M $57.3M $90.1M $90.5M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $66.2M $87.3M $96.4M $132.7M $142.5M
Total Equity $245.6M $307.7M $376.9M $377.1M $437.5M
Retained Earnings $17.9M $39.1M $61.8M $64.5M $98.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $66.4M -$35.3M $100.9M $81.2M $61.2M
Capital Expenditure -$2.7M -$5.3M -$16.3M -$17.0M -$8.2M
Free Cash Flow $63.7M -$40.7M $84.6M $64.1M $53.0M
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$45.5M -$2.7M
Net Change in Cash $139.3M -$37.7M -$15.6M -$58.5M -$3.7M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +20.6% +7.9% +1.8% +13.6%
Gross Profit Growth +17.7% +6.3% -0.4% +11.8%
Operating Income Growth +242.9% -9.6% -93.3% +1,584.2%
Net Income Growth +321.7% +6.8% -88.0% +1,159.2%
EBITDA Growth +219.7% -6.6% -75.8% +426.6%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:51
-0.5 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 30% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 62%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($11.21)
Bull — recovery +24% 10.0% $7.84 -30%
Base — stabilizes +16% 8.7% $5.46 -51%
Bear — keeps slipping +8% 7.4% $3.71 -67%
Stress — last quarter repeats +8% 8.7% $4.29 -62%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 8.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +28.5% · operating income +309.6% · net income +395.5% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +8.2% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FIGS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 12:46:24
Verdict Overvalued but not catastrophically so — fair value $7-9 vs current $11.08, not the synthesis's $5.02; avoid at current levels, revisit on a Q2'26 miss toward $8.

The raw numbers tell a more nuanced story than the synthesis $5.02 fair value suggests. Trailing four quarters (Q2'25 through Q1'26) generate $666M revenue and $40.6M net income — a 6.1% net margin, up meaningfully from the 0.5% margin in the four quarters ending Q1'25. That's real operating leverage, not accounting noise. Revenue growth accelerated from ~2% YoY in early 2024 to 13.6% in the most recent quarter, and Q4'25's 9.2% net margin shows what the model can print when SG&A is disciplined. FCF of $53M on a $1.79B market cap is a ~3% FCF yield, and stripping out the $82M net cash the EV/FCF sits around 32x. Not cheap, but not the $5 stock the DCF wants either.

That said, I share the synthesis's directional skepticism — I just think $5.02 is too aggressive. The 58x P/E is on GAAP earnings inflated by a Q4 that included seasonal strength; Q1'26 margin already compressed back to 3.9%. Annualizing recent quarters at a normalized 6% net margin on $700M revenue gets you ~$42M in earnings, or a 43x forward P/E — still rich for a company growing high single digits with 66% gross margins that are structurally down from the 72% peak. The FCF CAGR of -20.8% is the tell: earnings are recovering but cash conversion has deteriorated, which usually signals inventory build or working capital drag masking the "recovery." Market Forces flagging "alarming cash flow quality" contradicts the Secondary Signals' "Strong Cash Flow Quality" tag — I side with Market Forces given the FCF trajectory.

The contrarian case that nobody's making forcefully enough: FIGS has zero debt, $82M cash, a founder-led brand with genuine (if narrow) community affinity, and just demonstrated it can flex margins back toward historical highs. The bear thesis assumes healthcare-worker discretionary spending normalizes downward, but the Q4'25/Q1'26 revenue acceleration happened despite macro headwinds — suggesting either share gains or successful adjacency expansion (loungewear, international). Insider activity is F-InKind (tax withholding on vesting) and A-Awards (grants), not open-market sales — the "Unusual Selling Activity" flag is misreading standard equity compensation mechanics. That's a meaningful error in the Secondary Signals layer and it's echoed in the Market Forces "insider selling signaling limited confidence" language. There is no signal here.

Where I land: the synthesis is directionally right that FIGS trades above fundamental value, but the $5.02 anchor is a normalized-DCF artifact that ignores the visible margin recovery and the zero-debt balance sheet optionality. A fair range is $7-9 — roughly 20-25x normalized EPS of $0.35-0.40 plus the cash cushion — implying 20-35% downside, not 55%. The thesis score of -8 (essentially neutral) feels closer to reality than the synthesis verdict. This isn't a table-pounding short; it's a "priced for a category expansion story that hasn't been proven, but the underlying business is healthier than the DCF admits." Catalyst risk cuts both ways: another Q4-caliber print reaccelerates the narrative and this stock trades to $14+; a Q2'26 miss and it visits $8 fast. I'd want to see two more quarters of double-digit revenue growth with margins holding above 6% before paying 40x+ forward earnings for a specialty apparel brand. Partial agreement with the overvalued verdict, strong dissent on the magnitude.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 12:46:39
Verdict Overvalued at $11.08 — FIGS is a solid debt-free niche brand, but the current price assumes margin durability and category expansion the numbers still do not support; fair value is closer to $7-8.

FIGS looks like a good business, not a great stock. The core fact pattern is straightforward: revenue has recovered from a soft 2024 to $631.1M in 2025, up 13.6%, while net income rebounded from just $2.7M to $34.3M and free cash flow reached $53.0M. That is real improvement, and the balance sheet is clean with $82.0M of cash and no debt. But the market cap is already $1.79B, which means investors are paying about 3.1x sales, 36x EBITDA, and 58x earnings for a company whose four-year revenue CAGR is only 7.6% and whose annual operating margin is 6.0%. Those are not disaster numbers; they are simply far too ordinary for that valuation.

What stands out most is that FIGS’ vaunted gross margin is indeed excellent at 66.5%, but nearly all of the investment debate hinges on whether that gross margin can ever translate into durable operating leverage. So far, the answer is only partially. Annual gross profit rose from $375.6M in 2024 to $419.8M in 2025, yet operating income only reached $38.1M, barely above the $34.0M posted back in 2023 on lower revenue. Quarterly profitability also remains choppy: net margin swung from -0.1% in 2025-03 to 4.7%, 5.8%, 9.2%, then back down to 3.9% in 2026-03. That pattern does not support a premium multiple reserved for a compounding consumer brand with clean, widening earnings power. It supports a business still fighting for consistent conversion of brand strength into bottom-line scale.

The more subtle issue is that the latest quarter was good optically but less exciting beneath the surface. Revenue at $159.9M in 2026-03 was up sharply from $124.9M a year earlier, but that compares against a near-flat profit quarter last year; net income only reached $6.3M, still just a 3.9% margin. On a trailing four-quarter basis using the disclosed quarters, revenue is roughly $666M and net income about $40.6M, so the stock still trades around 44x trailing earnings even after the rebound. For a niche apparel company with category concentration, that implies confidence in sustained double-digit growth and margin expansion that the history does not yet prove. If FIGS were delivering 15-20% annual sales growth with operating margins pushing into the low teens, I could defend a premium. At 8-14% growth and mid-single-digit net margins, I cannot.

The best case against my view is that the business may be stronger than the income statement currently shows. A debt-free company generating $61.2M of operating cash flow and $53.0M of free cash flow on $631.1M of sales has meaningful financial resilience, and the cash conversion looks healthier than many DTC peers. Gross margins above 66% are rare in apparel and suggest the brand still has pricing power and customer loyalty. The quarterly revenue trajectory has also undeniably improved: from $140.2M and $144.2M in mid-2024 to $151.8M, $124.9M seasonally softer, then $152.6M, $151.7M, $201.9M, and $159.9M. If this is the early stage of a cleaner growth reacceleration, the stock may deserve more than a commodity-apparel multiple. I weigh that less heavily because FIGS has already had multiple years to demonstrate sustained operating leverage, yet earnings remain too volatile and too low relative to the valuation.

What would change my mind is not another quarter of decent top-line growth alone. I would need to see evidence that FIGS can hold revenue growth above 12-15% while converting that into at least 8-10% net margins or low-teens operating margins for several quarters, not just one holiday quarter spike. Concretely, if annual revenue can move toward $700M+ with net income power above $60M and free cash flow staying above $50M without margin backsliding, then today’s price starts to look more reasonable. Absent that, the market is still paying a premium for an aspirational brand narrative when the numbers describe a good niche retailer with inconsistent profitability. At $11.08, I think fair value is closer to $7-8.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 12:47:25
Verdict Overvalued at $11.08 — business is healing (13-28% growth, 66% GM, $53M FCF) but 58x PE / 36x EBITDA prices unproven lifestyle expansion; fairer anchor ~$7-8

The numbers tell a turnaround story that is real but already more than fully priced. FIGS grew revenue from $556M in 2024 to $631M in 2025 (+13.6%), ending a near-stall year, and Q1 2026 printed $160M versus $125M the prior-year quarter—roughly 28% growth and clear sequential reacceleration. More importantly, operating income leapt from $2.3M to $38.1M and net income from $2.7M to $34.3M in a single year, with gross margin holding at an apparel-defying 66.5%. Free cash flow of $53M on minimal capex ($8.2M) and a debt-free balance sheet with $82M cash and a 4.9 current ratio confirm the P&L improvement is converting to cash. This is not a broken business; it is a high-gross-margin DTC franchise that finally showed operating leverage after two flat years.

What the models undervalue is the durability of that margin structure and the early evidence that demand is not dead. A 66% gross margin in apparel is Lululemon-adjacent and gives enormous room to reinvest or expand EBIT if revenue compounds even at low-double-digits. The 2025 earnings explosion (earnings CAGR 23%, recent earnings YoY over 1,000% off a depressed base) and accelerating quarterly revenue trend argue against the pure “category ceiling has been hit” bear case. Zero debt and strong FCF quality further reduce downside fragility. The $5 composite fair value spit out by the valuation engine therefore looks mechanically harsh—it appears to embed permanent mid-single-digit growth and margin mean-reversion that the latest four quarters simply do not support.

Still, at $11.08 and a $1.79B enterprise, the stock is pricing a far more ambitious outcome than the data yet justify. Trailing PE of 58x, EV/EBITDA of 36x, and roughly 34x FCF are growth-stock multiples for a company whose five-year revenue CAGR is only 7.6% and whose lifestyle/adjacencies expansion remains a narrative, not a disclosed revenue mix. The market is paying for FIGS to become a smaller LULU—sustained 15-20% growth, stable mid-60s gross margins, and successful category escape velocity—while the financials still read as a premium scrub brand that just rediscovered mid-teens growth. Insider prints are mostly awards and withholdings rather than open-market conviction buys, and FCF CAGR of –20.8% over the longer window is a reminder that cash generation has been lumpy. A smart opponent would correctly note that 28% Q1 growth and a 1,200 bp operating-margin swing are exactly the setup that can re-rate a cult brand higher, and that shorting clean-balance-sheet 66%-gross-margin compounders has been a graveyard trade; those points have merit, but they require the growth reacceleration to persist for several more quarters before 35x+ EBITDA is earned rather than hoped.

I am therefore in the overvalued camp, though less extremely than the $5 model output. Something closer to $7–8 (roughly 20–22x a normalized mid-cycle FCF run-rate with mid-teens growth) feels like a more defensible anchor; $11 still embeds too much unproven TAM expansion. The verdict flips if the next two quarters sustain ≥20% revenue growth with gross margin ≥65% and operating margin pushing toward high-single-digits, or if management breaks out non-scrub mix showing material lifestyle traction. Conversely, a return to sub-10% growth or gross-margin compression below 63% would confirm the ceiling and open material downside.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:24:44
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at $11.21 - watchlist for a sub-$7 flush 8/10
Solid little business (+20 quality) at a story-stock price (-72 value) with a visibly fading narrative (-72 sentiment) - pass here, revisit in the $6s.
The cruxWhether gross margin stops bleeding and operating margin re-anchors above the mid-single digits; without that, the composite $5-7 fair value pulls the tape lower.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from FIGS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+20
Solid
edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 99 · conf 6/10

FIGS is a self-funding apparel business: $82M cash, no debt, Altman Z of 9.81, and OCF/NI of 5.49x with strongly negative accruals (-9.3% of assets) - the mechanical earnings-quality checks are clean and Beneish M at -2.84 shows no manipulation flags. Revenue has grown from $419.6M (2021) to $631.1M (2025), a ~10.7% CAGR, and FCF has been positive in four of five years ($53M in 2025). The balance sheet and cash conversion are genuinely strong for a mid-cap apparel name. However, the operating story is choppier than the top line suggests. Gross margin has compressed every single year from 71.8% (2021) to 66.5% (2025) - a 530bp erosion - and operating margin has bounced around violently (2.6, 7.4, 6.2, 0.4, 6.0), including a near-zero 0.4% print in 2024. That volatility in a category once framed as a premium brand is a durability question. Net income of $34.3M on $631M revenue implies ~5.4% net margin, modest for a supposed brand business. Capital discipline is the other soft spot: SBC runs 4.3% of revenue, diluted shares have compounded 3.1% annually, and buybacks recover only 20.6% of SBC - so repurchases are mopping up dilution rather than returning capital. Insider tape is one-directional: four sales totaling ~$1.86M in the last 12 months, zero open-market buys, alongside routine awards and tax-withholding. Not alarming in size, but no conviction signal from those closest to the business.

Strengths 4
m70
Fortress-lite balance sheet
$82M cash, no debt, Altman Z 9.81 - zero survival risk and no reliance on external capital.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 5.49x, accruals -9.3% of assets, Beneish M -2.84 - reported numbers are backed by cash, not accruals.
m55
Consistent FCF generation
Positive FCF in 4 of 5 years ($63.7M, -$40.7M, $84.6M, $64.1M, $53.0M) on a growing revenue base.
m45
Revenue growth intact
Revenue $419.6M to $631.1M over five years (~10.7% CAGR) with a reacceleration to +13.6% in 2025.
Concerns 4
m60
Gross margin bleed
GM has fallen every year from 71.8% to 66.5% - 530bp of compression suggests fading pricing power or rising input/logistics cost absorption.
m55
Operating margin instability
OpM swung 2.6 -> 7.4 -> 6.2 -> 0.4 -> 6.0%; the 2024 near-zero print in an ostensibly premium brand is a durability flag.
m50
Dilution treadmill
Diluted shares up 3.1% CAGR, SBC 4.3% of revenue, buybacks recover only 20.6% of SBC - per-share value is being quietly leaked.
m25
One-way insider tape
4 open-market sales (~$1.86M) and 0 buys over 12 months; small in dollar terms but no conviction signal from founders/officers.
This is a genuinely solid mid-cap - clean books, real cash generation, no debt - but it is not the brand fortress the initial IPO narrative implied. The steady gross-margin bleed over five years and the 2024 operating margin near zero tell me the moat is thinner than the category-leader positioning suggests, and the SBC-driven dilution that buybacks barely offset is a persistent tax on per-share economics. Nothing here is broken and survival is not remotely in question, but I would not confuse durable cash generation with a widening competitive advantage. A 55-ish business: healthy, self-funding, with real questions about brand power and capital discipline that keep it well short of high-quality.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Driver of GM compression from 71.8% to 66.5% - promo intensity, freight, mix shift into international/teams?
  • What caused the 2024 collapse to 0.4% OpM (inventory writedowns, marketing spend, one-timers)?
  • Customer/channel concentration - reliance on DTC vs. teams/international and any single-customer risk
  • Inventory position and days-on-hand given 2022 negative FCF (-$40.7M) was inventory-driven
  • SBC vesting schedule and whether the founder shares still voting-dominate the board
  • 10b5-1 plans behind the Spear/Hasson/Oughtred sales - programmatic vs. discretionary
Valuation / Mispricing
-72
Overvalued
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 111 · conf 7/10
Price $11.21 vs deserved ~$5-7; stock trades ~60-120% above fair value depending on method - no margin of safety, meaningful downside. attractive below $6.50

The e2e synthesis lands at a composite fair value of $5.15 and signal-adjusted $5.02, implying about -55% downside from $11.21. The methods triangulate in a tight, unflattering range: DCF at $6.81 is the most generous, anchored PE at $3.67 reflects the near-zero 2024 operating margin, and EPV floor at $1.24 shows what the current earnings power alone supports. Even giving full credit to the DCF as the 'business keeps compounding' case, the price is still ~65% above it. That is not a rounding error, it is a gap that requires the bull narrative (category expansion, international, pricing power) to largely come true.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Clean balance sheet, real FCF
Debt-free, cash-generative business deserves a premium to the EPV floor - the DCF at $6.81 is probably the fairer anchor than the $1.24 EPV, but even that leaves the stock rich.
Rich / priced-in 4
m72
Price roughly 2x composite fair value
Composite FV $5.15 vs price $11.21 implies -55% downside. All three methods (DCF $6.81, anchored PE $3.67, EPV $1.24) sit well below the tape.
m60
Anchored PE says earnings do not support the price
Anchored PE of $3.67 reflects the 2024 operating margin collapse toward zero - the market is paying for a recovery that has not shown up in the P&L.
m45
SBC dilution is a persistent per-share tax
Quality lens flags SBC-driven dilution that buybacks barely offset, which structurally lowers deserved per-share value even as the enterprise generates cash.
m40
Narrative-driven multiple on a normalizing category
Bear case (post-pandemic scrub demand normalization, thin DTC unit economics) aligns with the observed gross margin bleed - the cult-brand premium in the multiple looks unearned.
I do not care how solid the business is - at $11.21 I am paying up for a story the numbers do not yet support. Every method the synthesis runs lands below $7, and the operating margin near zero in 2024 makes the anchored PE of $3.67 hard to dismiss. This is a fine little company at a bad price. I would need to see it in the mid-$6s before the risk-reward starts to look symmetric, and closer to $5 before I would call it interesting on valuation alone. Fairly-valued is not the honest read here; rich is.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Gross margin trajectory in next 2 quarters - stabilization vs further bleed materially changes DCF
  • International and non-scrubs revenue mix and contribution margin
  • SBC as % of revenue and net share count trend
  • Any guidance on operating margin recovery path
  • Inventory levels and markdown risk
General Sentiment
-72
Headwind
tail √Σ 32 · head √Σ 122 · conf 7/10

FIGS sits in the worst spot for a sentiment lens: a cult-favorite archetype with strong intensity but fragile durability, meaning the story is doing all the heavy lifting on the price and any nick to it lands hard. The May 8 tape tell was decisive - a 28% revenue beat and 125% earnings beat still produced a 24% collapse, which is the market telling you the narrative is already exhausted at these levels and good news no longer buys upside. Since January the stock has drifted flat around $10-11 while the S&P added 7%, and sell-side pieces are now openly framing it as a sell - classic signs of a fading cult where believers are quietly bleeding out. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (regime +22, VIX 16) and with beta near 1 there's no cushion; higher rates specifically punish DTC consumer-cyclical names whose bull case rests on lifestyle TAM expansion and future CAC leverage. Sector (apparel) is out of favor, the healthcare-worker spending wave narrative is normalizing, and there is no fresh catalyst or analyst upgrade cycle to reignite the cult. Net: the non-fundamental pressure leans clearly negative - the story is losing believers faster than the tape is helping.

Tailwinds 2
m25
Neutral-to-mildly-constructive market regime
Regime score +22 with VIX 16 and S&P only 1.6% off highs means there is no risk-off panic amplifying the headwind. With beta 1.02 the tape itself is a mild positive - it just isn't enough to offset a broken narrative.
m20
Recent momentum modestly improving
Recent 13.6% vs 7.6% long-term CAGR suggests the worst of the sentiment purge may have passed and the stock is holding a range near $11. A base is forming even if the story is faded.
Headwinds 4
m75
Fragile cult narrative losing intensity
Cult-favorite archetype with fragile durability is the highest-risk sentiment setup - when the story cracks, there is no fundamental floor because price already embeds Nike-level brand stickiness. The May earnings reaction (great print, -24%) shows believers are exiting.
m65
Good-news-doesnt-work tape signal
A 125% EPS beat producing a 24% drawdown is the textbook signature of narrative exhaustion. The market has stopped rewarding beats, meaning sentiment flow is one-directional until either valuation resets or a new story emerges.
m55
Analyst and media tone turning openly bearish
Fresh 'reasons to sell FIGS' pieces circulating while the stock lags the S&P by ~8 points YTD indicates sell-side and financial media have shifted from patient-bull to actively negative - a slow drip of negative framing that compounds on a story stock.
m45
Rates and DTC-cohort de-rating
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 create a hostile backdrop for unprofitable-narrative DTC consumer names whose bull case is future CAC leverage. FIGS trades in the same cohort the market has been steadily de-rating for two years.
I read this as a clear headwind. The cult story is fragile and visibly fading - when a 125% earnings beat gets sold 24%, the market is telling you it no longer believes the lifestyle-brand-of-healthcare thesis at this price, and there is no macro or analyst tailwind coming to rescue it. Beta near 1 in a neutral tape means no amplification either way, so the pressure is nearly all narrative-driven and it points down. Not a Strong Headwind because the tape is calm and a base is forming near $11, but I would not lean into this name until either the story reboots or price does the work.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether Q2/Q3 prints again produce sell-the-news reactions - a positive reaction would signal the sentiment cycle has bottomed
  • Any credible international or category-expansion news that could reignite the lifestyle-brand narrative
  • Short interest trend and any signs of forced-seller exhaustion around the $10 level
  • Sell-side rating changes - a capitulation downgrade often marks the sentiment low
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -27.2% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, FIGS was $10.85. We expect it to be $7.90 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $6.50. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.

Price when predicted$10.85
Our estimate for Feb 2027$7.90-27.2%
Great value below$6.50
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06