Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$11.36
6-month call
Neutral -3.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$10.95
Great value below
$8.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.6% to $10.95
Predicted High
$11.70
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$10.80
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:00 am
Neutral
FRSH trends range-bound to
$10.95
(-3.6% from $11.36)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFRSH sits above composite fair value but below DCF, with a fresh Gartner Leader nod and new CPTO providing positive narrative in a neutral tape. Expect modest sentiment-driven drift up near-term, then gravity toward the mid-$10s as value anchors reassert with no earnings catalyst in the window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $9.50 on volume, or sustained move above $13 signaling re-rating toward DCF
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $11.36 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $11.36 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $10.17–$12.55 typical range · internal point $11.55 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Gartner and CPTO news carry short-term positive sentiment |
| What actually happened: closed $12.66 on Aug 14, 2026 = +11.4% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $9.64–$13.08 typical range · internal point $11.70 | — | ±15.1% | 5/10 | Momentum continues, low beta cushions neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $13.46 on Sep 1, 2026 = +18.5% vs the call (predicted +3.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 15.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±15.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $11.45 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | News fades, no catalyst, drift toward baseline |
| What actually happened: closed $12.79 on Sep 30, 2026 = +12.6% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $11.15 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $10.90 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, quality score modest at 30 |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $10.80 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Value lens negative, drift continues lower |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $10.95 | — | -3.6% | 4/10 | Stabilizes near deterministic baseline, awaiting next print |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $11.25 (-0.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $11.36 |
| Composite fair value | $5.99 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $7.60 |
| DCF fair value | $14.26 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $8.00 |
| Value net score | -49 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +30 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.2% 3m 52.4% 6m 58.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.13 3m -0.30 5m -0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 6.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | FRSH-20260730-182637-51fe |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-FRSH-20260730-184630-de22 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-FRSH-20260730-184630-de22 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-FRSH-20260730-184630-de22 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-FRSH-20260730-184630-de22 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | FRSH-20260730-182637-51fe |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | FRSH-20260730-182637-51fe |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $11.36 | $10.95 | -3.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.