Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$153.24
6-month call
Bear -11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$135.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.9% to $135.00
Predicted High
$156.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$135.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:04 pm
Bear
FTNT trends lower to
$135.00
(-11.9% from $153.24)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFTNT trades at ~3x composite fair value after a 92% six-month run, but with no earnings catalyst in-window, risk-on tape, and strong quality/platform narrative, momentum likely persists near-term before AI-disruption concerns and value gravity pull it lower into winter.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $170 on volume, or a surprise M&A/AI product catalyst, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $153.24 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $153.24 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $140.79–$165.69 typical range · internal point $155.80 | — | ±8.1% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $156.29 on Sep 4, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $135.21–$171.27 typical range · internal point $156.50 | — | ±11.8% | 5/10 | Platform narrative sustains, no catalyst to break trend |
| What actually happened: closed $178.74 on Sep 23, 2026 = +16.6% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $151.00 | — | -1.5% | 4/10 | Valuation fatigue as rally maturity increases |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $146.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk and AI-disruption rotation pressure |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $142.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking from crowded winners |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $138.00 | — | -9.9% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward deterministic baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $135.00 | — | -11.9% | 3/10 | Converges near baseline as multiple compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $136.44 (-11.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $153.24 |
| Composite fair value | $48.75 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $44.18 |
| DCF fair value | $62.48 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +88 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.1% 3m 40.8% 6m 45.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.93 3m 1.12 5m 0.73 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 91.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | FTNT-20260824-010002-3fb4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTNT-20260824-041518-646d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTNT-20260824-041518-646d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTNT-20260824-041518-646d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTNT-20260824-041518-646d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | FTNT-20260824-010002-3fb4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | FTNT-20260824-010002-3fb4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $153.24 | $135.00 | -11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $162.35 | $144.79 | -10.8% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.