Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$38.29
6-month call
Bull +9.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$42.00
Great value below
$32.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.7% to $42.00
Predicted High
$42.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$37.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:09 pm
Bull
GIS trends higher to
$42.00
(+9.7% from $38.29)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisGIS is oversold on packaged-food narrative contagion (Campbell's spillover) despite beating EPS 3/3, negative beta, and DCF suggesting deep value. Near-term sentiment drag persists but value gravity and defensive positioning should reassert over 3-6 months toward the mid-40s composite baseline.
Invalidated ifBreak below $35 on volume or a guide-down at next print would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $38.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $38.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $35.58–$41.00 typical range · internal point $37.60 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag and sector contagion continue near-term |
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $34.36–$42.22 typical range · internal point $37.20 | — | ±10.3% | 5/10 | Packaged-food narrative weight, no catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $38.10 | — | -0.5% | 4/10 | Basing as defensive bid returns in risk-on tape |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $39.40 | — | +2.9% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair-value anchor |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $40.50 | — | +5.8% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, sentiment mean-reverts |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $41.30 | — | +7.9% | 4/10 | DCF gravity and low beta attract defensive rotation |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $42.00 | — | +9.7% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $40.41 (+5.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 3 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
Value is primarily income-based — dividend sustainability is the key risk
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $38.29 |
| Composite fair value | $31.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $28.55 |
| DCF fair value | $56.81 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $32.00 |
| Value net score | -50 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +0 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.8% 3m 35.5% 6m 30.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.27 3m -0.33 5m -0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -13.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | GIS-20260905-040001-9db1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GIS-20260905-041614-0905 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GIS-20260905-041614-0905 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GIS-20260905-041614-0905 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GIS-20260905-041614-0905 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | GIS-20260905-040001-9db1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | GIS-20260905-040001-9db1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $38.29 | $42.00 | +9.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.