GOOG
← full report
Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$332.60
6-month call
Neutral +4.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$348.00
Great value below
$275.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+4.6% to $348.00
Predicted High
$348.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$312.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:43 am
Neutral
GOOG trends range-bound to
$348.00
(+4.6% from $332.60)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisGOOG is caught in an AI-capex-cost rotation out of hyperscalers despite intact fundamentals and elite quality. Near-term sentiment pressure likely pushes the stock lower before a stabilization and gradual recovery as the rotation exhausts and earnings execution reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $290 on accelerating hyperscaler selling, or conversely a decisive move above $355 invalidating the near-term dip thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $332.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $332.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $307.07–$358.13 typical range · internal point $325.00 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Sentiment rotation pressure continues near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $343.00 on Aug 11, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $295.61–$369.59 typical range · internal point $318.00 | — | ±11.1% | 5/10 | AI-cost-shock narrative weighs on hyperscalers |
| What actually happened: closed $342.88 on Aug 28, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -4.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 7.5 pp · accuracy 7/10 · typical range ±11.1%: inside the band · S&P +5.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $312.00 | — | -6.2% | 5/10 | Approaching value zone attracts dip buyers |
| What actually happened: closed $339.16 on Sep 28, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted -6.2%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 8.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +5.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $322.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | Q3 earnings beat likely stabilizes tape |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $335.00 | — | +0.7% | 4/10 | Quality reasserts as rotation exhausts |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $342.00 | — | +2.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors quality mega-caps |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $348.00 | — | +4.6% | 3/10 | Fundamentals reassert over sentiment overhang |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $332.60 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -35 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.4% 3m 38.5% 6m 33.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.77 3m 1.58 5m 1.53 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOG-20260729-000735-8d11 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOG-20260729-002903-1fa7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOG-20260729-002903-1fa7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOG-20260729-002903-1fa7 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOG-20260729-002903-1fa7 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOG-20260729-000735-8d11 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOG-20260729-000735-8d11 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $332.60 | $348.00 | +4.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.