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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 23, 2026
4 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Alphabet Inc.

GOOG NASDAQ Categories PDF
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Mountain View, CA 94043, United States IPO 2004 abc.xyz Updated Jun 23, 3:02am
Price
$348.78
Market Cap
$4.2T
Employees
185,719
Beta
1.24
Avg Volume
20,743,494
CEO
Sundar Pichai
Business Description

Alphabet Inc. operates globally, providing a wide array of products and digital platforms to customers across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, Canada, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three primary segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services division delivers a broad spectrum of consumer-facing offerings, which include its advertising products, the Android operating system, Chrome browser, various hardware devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search functionality, and YouTube. This segment also generates revenue through the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via Google Play and YouTube, alongside device sales and consumer subscriptions for YouTube services. Conversely, the Google Cloud segment furnishes enterprise-grade solutions such as infrastructure, cybersecurity, database management, analytics, artificial intelligence, and other professional services. This encompasses the Google Workspace suite, a collection of cloud-native communication and collaboration tools for businesses, including Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other offerings tailored for corporate clients. The Other Bets segment is dedicated to developing nascent ventures, particularly those focused on healthcare-related and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)
$348.78
-18.68 (-5.08%)
Day Range
$340.94 – $358.20
52-Week Range
$166.91 – $404.47
50-Day MA
$365.27
200-Day MA
$311.21
Volume
31,811,068.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $345.00
Consensus $400.72
High $450.00
(118 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 12,094,870,293.00
Float 10,822,738,160.00
Free Float 89.5%
High free float — 89.5% of shares trade freely, ~10.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
26.41
Stock Price: $348.78
EPS (Diluted): 10.91
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.13
Stock Price: $348.78
Total Equity: $415.27B
Shares: 12,230,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
19.57
Market Cap: $4,218.45B
Total Debt: $46.55B
Cash: $30.71B
EBITDA: $179.96B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$3.8T
Market Cap: $4,218.45B
Total Debt: $46.55B
Cash: $30.71B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
59.7%
Gross Profit: $240.43B
Revenue: $402.96B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
32.1%
Operating Income: $129.17B
Revenue: $402.96B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
32.8%
Net Income: $132.17B
Revenue: $402.96B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
39.0%
Net Income: $132.17B
Total Equity: $415.27B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
19.2%
Operating Income: $129.17B
Tax Rate: 16.8%
Equity: $415.27B
Total Debt: $46.55B
Cash: $30.71B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.01
Current Assets: $206.04B
Current Liabilities: $102.75B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.11
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $46.55B
Total Debt: $46.55B
Total Equity: $415.27B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$32.95
Revenue: $402.96B
Shares: 12,230,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$33.95
Total Equity: $415.27B
Shares: 12,230,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.99
Operating CF: $164.71B
CapEx: -$91.45B
Shares: 12,230,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $348.78
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $132.17B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:02am
Compares GOOG against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-23 03:11:49
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - hold core, scale in lower 7/10
Fortress-grade business at a fair-not-cheap price into a fresh AI-narrative headwind - keep the core, wait to add lower.
The cruxWhether the current AI-talent/antitrust narrative crack pulls the multiple back toward the low-$300s, which is where Quality 100 meets a real margin of safety.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from GOOG's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Fortress
edge √Σ 180 · risk √Σ 46 · conf 9/10

The business is operating at peak form. Revenue scaled from 257.6B in 2021 to 403.0B in 2025 (about 12% CAGR even at this size), with gross margin expanding from 56.9% to 59.7% and operating margin from 30.6% to 32.1%. Net income nearly doubled from 76.0B to 132.2B over four years, while FCF rose from 67.0B to 73.3B - the FCF/NI gap reflects the heavy AI/datacenter capex cycle, not earnings quality issues (OCF/NI 1.32x, accruals -6.2% of assets, Beneish -2.63 all clean). Balance sheet is a fortress: 126.8B liquid, 80.3B net cash, Altman Z 16.4. Capital return discipline is exemplary - diluted share count shrank from 13.55B to 12.23B (-2.5% CAGR) with buybacks running 2.66x SBC, so the 6.2% SBC/revenue is more than absorbed and per-share value is concentrating. Insider tape is routine: awards plus small Hennessy disposals (under 100K), no directional signal. The only real watch-items are the capex intensity required to sustain AI leadership and regulatory/antitrust overhang, neither of which shows up yet as quality deterioration.

Strengths 5
m90
Margin expansion at scale
Operating margin rose from 26.5% (2022) to 32.1% (2025) while revenue grew from 282.8B to 403.0B; net income jumped from 60.0B to 132.2B. Operating leverage is real and accelerating.
m85
Per-share value concentrating
Diluted shares fell from 13.55B to 12.23B (-2.5% CAGR) with buyback/SBC at 265.9%. SBC of 6.2% of revenue is fully neutralized and then some.
m80
Fortress balance sheet
126.8B liquid cash, 80.3B net cash, Altman Z 16.4. Zero solvency risk; optionality to invest through cycles.
m75
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.32x, accruals -6.2% of assets, Beneish M -2.63. Reported earnings are backed by cash; no manipulation flags.
m70
Durable cash generation
73.3B FCF in 2025 despite heavy AI capex ramp - the franchise self-funds investment, dividends, and buybacks simultaneously.
Concerns 2
m35
FCF growth lagging NI growth
Net income grew 76% from 2022 to 2025 (60.0B to 132.2B) while FCF grew only 22% (60.0B to 73.3B). Capex intensity from AI buildout is consuming a rising share of operating cash - sustainable only if AI monetization follows.
m30
Regulatory and AI-disruption overhang
Not in the numbers yet, but Search antitrust outcomes and generative-AI substitution risk are structural threats to the highest-margin revenue stream. A quality watch-item, not a current defect.
This is as close to an A-plus business as the dataset shows. Margins are expanding at 400B of revenue, the share count is actually shrinking, the balance sheet has 80B of net cash, and earnings quality metrics are pristine. The only honest blemish is that FCF growth has decoupled from net income growth because capex is exploding for AI infrastructure - that is a quality watch-item, not a defect, but if AI capex stays elevated without commensurate Cloud/AI revenue, the FCF compounding story slows. Insider tape is noise. Regulatory risk is real but doesn't show in the financials. Call it Fortress with eyes open on capex intensity.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Capex trajectory and management commentary on AI infra spending peak vs. sustained elevated run-rate
  • Search revenue growth rate isolated from Cloud/YouTube to gauge core franchise health amid AI competition
  • Google Cloud operating margin trajectory and segment profitability mix
  • Status and remedies from DOJ Search antitrust ruling and any ad-tech case outcomes
  • Composition of buyback authorization remaining and pace relative to FCF
Valuation / Mispricing
-26
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 46 · risk √Σ 72 · conf 6/10
Price $349 vs deserved ~$330-340 midpoint - roughly 3-5% rich, well within fair-value noise. attractive below $295.00

At $348.78 and a $4.2T cap, GOOG trades around 27-28x trailing earnings on a business compounding revenue mid-teens with expanding operating margins and ~$80B net cash. Stripping cash, the operating business is closer to 26x - a premium to the market but defensible for a Fortress-grade compounder with shrinking share count. The e2e synthesis flags 'High Conviction Required,' which I read as no obvious gap either way.ns The bull case (AI monetization, Cloud inflection, YouTube share gains) is largely in the tape after a strong run; the bear case (search disruption, antitrust remedy, AI capex eating FCF) is acknowledged but not discounted. To justify $349 you need roughly low-double-digit FCF growth for 5+ years with margins holding despite AI capex - achievable, not heroic, but not a gift either. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut; capex decoupling FCF from NI is the one item that argues for a slightly lower deserved multiple. Net: deserved value sits in the $310-360 zone. Today's price is inside that band - fair, not cheap, not egregious.

Cheap signals 2
m35
$80B net cash plus buyback
Cash-adjusted EV multiple is ~1-2 turns cheaper than headline; shrinking share count adds ~1% annual tailwind to per-share value.
m30
Cloud and YouTube subs underearning
GCP margins still ramping and YouTube subscriptions (Premium, NFL) carry optionality not fully reflected in a blended ad-business multiple.
Rich / priced-in 4
m45
Multiple has re-rated on AI optimism
~27x trailing earnings and ~22x forward is a clear premium to GOOG's own 5-year average (~22x). The AI/Cloud narrative is now priced in, not a free option.
m40
FCF decoupling from earnings via capex
AI infrastructure capex is exploding, so reported NI growth overstates owner earnings growth. Deserved multiple should be a touch lower than headline P/E suggests.
m30
Antitrust tail risk not in price
A forced search-default or Chrome divestiture remedy is a real, asymmetric downside the current multiple does not appear to discount.
m25
Mega-cap law of large numbers
At $4.2T cap with $400B+ revenue, sustained mid-teens growth gets mathematically harder; the price assumes it continues.
I think GOOG is fairly valued here, leaning a hair rich. It is unambiguously a great business, but a 27x multiple on a $4T mega-cap already pays for the AI and Cloud story - I am not getting a free option. I would want it closer to $295 (roughly 22x forward, in line with its own history) before I would call it a layup. At $349 I would hold what I own, but I am not a buyer with conviction - the margin of safety is too thin for the antitrust and capex tail risks I can see.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • 2025-2026 capex guidance and whether FCF margin troughs or keeps compressing
  • Google Cloud operating margin trajectory - is the inflection durable
  • DOJ search remedy ruling scope and timing
  • Search query volume trends vs ChatGPT/Perplexity disclosed in transcript color
  • Buyback pace - is the $70B+ annual repurchase sustained
General Sentiment
-40
Headwind
tail √Σ 70 · head √Σ 110 · conf 7/10

The non-fundamental pressure on GOOG has flipped negative in the last 72 hours. Multiple news wires cite 'high-profile AI talent departures from Alphabet' as the proximate cause of a communication-services and software complex selloff, with Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia all logging heavy losses on the Nasdaq. That is a narrative crack, not a fundamentals crack, and it lands directly on the AI-platform-leader story that has been holding GOOG's premium above its $300-330 fundamental anchor. With beta 1.24 and the tape now neutral-to-soft (VIX 16.8, S&P off highs, 10y at 4.51%), this name absorbs more downside than defensives.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Sell-side tone firmly constructive
Consensus Buy (3 SB / 66 B vs 9 H / 1 S), target $400 vs spot $349, with 3 revisions this month averaging $460. Analyst flow is a real bid under the name even as the tape sells.
m35
Durable platform-monopoly narrative, low cult risk
Story archetype is moderate-intensity but durable with low cult coefficient - it does not unwind on a single bad headline the way a meme name would.
m25
Steady positive headline drumbeat
Bilateral Energy Dome storage deal and ongoing infra announcements keep GOOG in the 'building the AI stack' frame, partially offsetting the talent-loss optics.
Headwinds 5
m70
AI talent departures hit the core narrative
Multiple outlets pin Monday's comm-services/software selloff on high-profile AI talent leaving Alphabet. This strikes precisely at the 'AI platform leader' premium that lifts GOOG above its cash-cow fair value.
m55
Megacap tech selloff with beta 1.24
Nasdaq futures down, Amazon/Alphabet/Nvidia logging heavy losses. With beta 1.24 and a neutral-leaning tape, GOOG eats more of the drawdown than lower-beta peers.
m45
Regulatory overhang re-cited
News explicitly pairs the talent story with a 'regulatory overhang' dragging the complex. Antitrust/search-breakup risk is back in the live narrative, not just the bear deck.
m35
Cramer-style skepticism on NVIDIA-chip claims
Public questioning of how many times Alphabet has announced NVIDIA competitors signals narrative fatigue on the TPU/AI-infra story - a small but corrosive credibility tax.
m30
Rates still restrictive for long-duration AI capex
10y at 4.51% with a flat-ish curve keeps the discount rate against $200B+ AI capex stories elevated; hyperscaler optionality gets marked down at the margin.
Net read is a clear headwind, not a strong one. The live tape is doing exactly what hurts GOOG most: cracking the AI-platform credibility leg of the story while the regulatory overhang gets re-cited, and a beta-1.24 name in a softening megacap-tech tape cannot hide. The durable monopoly narrative and a still-bullish sell-side desk keep this from being a Strong Headwind, but analyst tone is backward-looking and the news flow is fresh - I lean to patience and scaling in rather than chasing here.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Names and destinations of the departing AI staff - is it a trickle or a coordinated exit to a rival lab
  • Whether the Comm-Services/software selloff extends past 1-2 sessions or reverses
  • Any DOJ/antitrust headline escalation on search remedies
  • Whether sell-side targets get cut to reflect the talent news, closing the tone-vs-narrative gap
  • VIX behavior and 10y yield direction into the next CPI/Fed print
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:06:53 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $257.6B $282.8B $307.4B $350.0B $403.0B
Cost of Revenue $110.9B $126.2B $133.3B $146.3B $162.5B
Gross Profit $146.7B $156.6B $174.1B $203.7B $240.4B
Operating Expenses $68.0B $81.8B $89.8B $91.3B $111.3B
Operating Income $78.7B $74.8B $84.3B $112.4B $129.2B
Net Income $76.0B $60.0B $73.8B $100.1B $132.2B
EBITDA $103.5B $85.2B $98.0B $135.4B $180.0B
EPS $5.69 $4.59 $5.84 $8.13 $10.91
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $20.9B $21.9B $24.0B $23.5B $30.7B
Total Current Assets $188.1B $164.8B $171.5B $163.7B $206.0B
Total Assets $359.3B $365.3B $402.4B $450.3B $595.3B
Current Liabilities $64.3B $69.3B $81.8B $89.1B $102.7B
Long-Term Debt $12.8B $12.9B $11.9B $10.9B $46.5B
Total Liabilities $107.6B $109.1B $119.0B $125.2B $180.0B
Total Equity $251.6B $256.1B $283.4B $325.1B $415.3B
Retained Earnings $191.5B $195.6B $211.2B $245.1B $324.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $91.7B $91.5B $101.7B $125.3B $164.7B
Capital Expenditure -$24.6B -$31.5B -$32.3B -$52.5B -$91.4B
Free Cash Flow $67.0B $60.0B $69.5B $72.8B $73.3B
Acquisitions (net) -$2.6B -$7.0B -$495.0M -$2.9B -$1.6B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$50.3B -$59.3B -$61.5B -$62.2B -$45.7B
Net Change in Cash -$5.5B $934.0M $2.2B -$582.0M $7.2B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $580.0B
$533.0B – $635.0B
$679.7B
$621.2B – $742.6B
$788.3B
$720.5B – $861.2B
$899.7B
$822.3B – $982.9B
EBITDA $215.2B
$197.8B – $235.6B
$252.2B
$230.5B – $275.5B
$292.5B
$267.3B – $319.5B
$333.8B
$305.1B – $364.7B
Net Income $179.9B
$167.0B – $209.6B
$210.0B
$186.5B – $235.2B
$245.5B
$218.0B – $275.0B
$295.2B
$262.2B – $330.7B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +9.8% +8.7% +13.9% +15.1%
Gross Profit Growth +6.8% +11.1% +17.0% +18.0%
Operating Income Growth -4.9% +12.6% +33.3% +14.9%
Net Income Growth -21.1% +23.0% +35.7% +32.0%
EBITDA Growth -17.7% +15.0% +38.2% +32.9%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:07am (4d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 WALKER JOHN KENT A-Award 41.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 WALKER JOHN KENT A-Award 36.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 WALKER JOHN KENT A-Award 17.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Porat Ruth A-Award 41.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Porat Ruth A-Award 36.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Porat Ruth A-Award 17.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 3.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 3.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 1.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 1.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 1.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Saraci Marsida A-Award 1.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 45.00 $366.22 $16,480
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 33.00 $367.66 $12,133
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 177.00 $369.21 $65,350
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 45.00 $369.89 $16,645
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. A-Award 1.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 51.00 $366.01 $18,667
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 35.00 $367.09 $12,848
2026-06-15 Hennessy John L. S-Sale 145.00 $369.04 $53,511
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-08 $0.22 2026-04-27 2026-06-08 2026-06-15
2026-03-09 $0.21 2026-01-27 2026-03-09 2026-03-16
2025-12-08 $0.21 2025-11-06 2025-12-08 2025-12-15
2025-09-08 $0.21 2025-07-21 2025-09-08 2025-09-15
2025-06-09 $0.21 2025-04-23 2025-06-09 2025-06-16
2025-03-10 $0.20 2025-02-04 2025-03-10 2025-03-17
2024-12-09 $0.20 2024-10-28 2024-12-09 2024-12-16
2024-09-09 $0.20 2024-07-23 2024-09-09 2024-09-16
2024-06-10 $0.20 2024-04-25 2024-06-10 2024-06-17
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for GOOG — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-23 03:07:35
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly rich at $348 — fair value $310–330 on normalized FCF; hold existing, add only below $300, trim above $380; the bull case requires three things to go right while the bear case needs only one to go wrong.

The raw numbers tell a more interesting story than the synthesis admits. Revenue went from $84.7B (Q2'24) to $109.9B (Q1'26) — that's 30% growth in seven quarters at a $400B+ run-rate, which is genuinely remarkable scale economics. But look closer at the Q1'26 print: $62.58B net income on $109.9B revenue is a 56.9% net margin, which is preposterous for an ad business and almost certainly contains a large non-operating gain (likely mark-to-market on equity investments, possibly an Anthropic-style stake revaluation, or a tax benefit). The operating margin trend from the annuals is the honest signal — 28.6% (2022) → 27.4% (2023) → 32.1% (2024) → 32.1% (2025 implied from $129.17B/$402.96B). That's real and durable, not a one-time print. Annual NI of $132B on $403B revenue gives a clean 32.8% net margin, and that's what you should anchor on, not the 56.9% optical Q1.

The FCF picture is where I diverge sharply from the bullish framing. Operating CF of $164.7B against capex of $91.45B gives $73.3B FCF — and capex has exploded. The fcf_cagr of 2.7% versus revenue_cagr of 14.5% and earnings_cagr of 33.8% is the entire bear case in one ratio. Alphabet is converting ~18% of revenue to FCF now, down from historical 25%+, because every incremental dollar of growth requires a dollar of GPU/datacenter spend. At $4.22T market cap on $73B FCF, you're paying 57x FCF — not the 26x P/E the headline suggests. The synthesis's "60% FCF growth assumption" is exactly the right thing to be skeptical of: capex is structurally elevated, and if AI compute intensity continues, FCF could stay flat or decline through 2027 even with revenue growth. The pre-flight note that the market is "betting AI capex is defensive rather than offensive" is the cleanest framing in the entire file.

Where I think the prior models are too soft: the synthesis calls this "High Conviction Required" but doesn't price the asymmetry. The narrative layer pegs fair value at $300–330 with current $348 as a ~5–10% premium — I think that's roughly right but the distribution is wider than implied. Antitrust remand on Search distribution (the Apple default payments specifically, ~$20B/year of pure-margin revenue) is a real binary risk the models hand-wave. Meanwhile the contrarian bull case the models underweight: Cloud is now likely running at $50B+ annualized and finally margin-positive; Waymo is a free option at zero in the SOTP; and the YouTube + Search ad combination has shown zero share loss to AI substitutes in actual reported numbers despite two years of "Google is dead" narratives. The insider activity data is useless here — these are tiny award grants, not signal. Mark that section as noise, not "neutral."

My verdict: I dissent mildly from the "High Conviction Required" framing — that's analyst-speak for "we can't decide." The actual call is that GOOG at $348 is fairly valued to modestly rich on a clean FCF basis (57x trailing FCF is not cheap), but reasonably priced on normalized earnings if you believe capex intensity moderates after 2026. The asymmetry isn't great here: upside requires Cloud margins inflecting to 20%+ AND Search holding share AND capex/revenue ratio falling — three things, not one. Downside requires only one of (antitrust remedy, Search share loss, capex staying at 23% of revenue) to compress the multiple to 20x earnings, which is $270. I'd be a buyer under $300, a holder $300–360, and a trimmer above $380. The $4.2T market cap leaves little room for the AI capex bet to disappoint, and the Q1'26 56.9% margin print is a trap for anyone extrapolating it.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-23 03:07:51
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — fairly valued to modestly rich at $348, fair value closer to $310–330, given the capex intensity and regulatory risks; hold existing, consider buying below $300.

In analyzing Alphabet's financial data, the revenue growth trajectory is impressive, with a leap from $84.74B in Q2 2024 to $109.90B in Q1 2026, marking a significant increase of approximately 30% over seven quarters. The net income of $62.58B in Q1 2026, resulting in a net margin of 56.9%, does indeed suggest an anomaly that likely stems from non-operating gains rather than core business improvements. The consistent operating margin over recent years, rising from 28.6% in 2022 to 32.1% in 2025, paints a picture of stability and operational efficiency that aligns with the long-term profitability narrative. However, the ballooning capex—$91.45B—against an operating cash flow of $164.71B, results in a free cash flow (FCF) of $73.27B, highlighting a shift towards capital-intensive investments, predominantly in AI infrastructure.

Opus claims that Alphabet's valuation at $348 is "fairly valued to modestly rich," with a fair value range of $310–330, which I align with given the financial metrics. The assertion that the Q1 2026 net margin is inflated due to likely non-recurring items is reasonable, as the historical operating margins present a more accurate reflection of the company's financial health. I concur with Opus's skepticism regarding the 60% FCF growth assumption, as the data shows a clear disparity between revenue growth (14.5% CAGR) and FCF growth (2.7% CAGR). This divergence underscores the increasing capital requirements to sustain growth, which may not translate into proportional FCF increases.

I diverge from Opus's view that the insider activity is "noise"; while small in scope, it reaffirms a lack of significant insider optimism or concern, which could imply stability but not necessarily insight into future performance. On the antitrust risks, I agree with Opus that these remain a real concern, especially regarding Google's dominance in search and potential regulatory actions that could impact revenue streams like the Apple default payments.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and my analysis overstate the risk in Alphabet's heavy AI investments. They could posit that the market's pricing already accounts for these risks, given the historical resilience and adaptability of Alphabet's core businesses. Moreover, the significant cash reserves and the potential for new revenue streams from AI advancements could offset the capital intensity concerns, allowing Alphabet to maintain its market position even with substantial AI expenditures.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30