Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$332.02
6-month call
Bear -5.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$315.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.1% to $315.00
Predicted High
$331.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$315.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:48 am
Bear
HD trends lower to
$315.00
(-5.1% from $332.02)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisHD trades well above composite fair value ($231.81) with a negative value lens and only mildly positive sentiment. In a neutral regime with no imminent catalyst, gravity toward fair value should apply gradually, partially offset by quality and beat history. Expect a slow drift lower toward the deterministic baseline around $316.
Invalidated ifA break above $345 on strong volume, or a market regime shift to clearly bullish, would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $332.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $332.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $313.09–$350.95 typical range · internal point $331.00 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low vol, minimal near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $338.80 on Aug 14, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $304.59–$359.45 typical range · internal point $329.50 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Mild mean reversion in calm sentiment backdrop |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $326.00 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting on rich multiple |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $322.00 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, overvaluation pressure continues |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $319.00 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Seasonal chop, holiday retail sentiment mixed |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $317.00 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $315.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull persists but quality cushions downside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $316.40 (-4.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $332.02 |
| Composite fair value | $231.81 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $202.63 |
| DCF fair value | $230.52 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $296.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | -53 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +35 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.9% 3m 28.6% 6m 27.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.72 3m 0.61 5m 0.89 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | HD-20260801-001034-9c89 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HD-20260801-003431-617f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HD-20260801-003431-617f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HD-20260801-003431-617f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HD-20260801-003431-617f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | HD-20260801-001034-9c89 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | HD-20260801-001034-9c89 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $332.02 | $315.00 | -5.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $324.45 | $307.34 | -5.3% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.