Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$136.10
6-month call
Bull +11.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$152.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.7% to $152.00
Predicted High
$152.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$133.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:21 pm
Bull
HIG trends higher to
$152.00
(+11.7% from $136.10)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisHIG trades well below composite fair value but lacks a near-term catalyst; the negative beta and sentiment dead zone mean value convergence will be slow and choppy rather than a straight rerating. Expect modest drift higher over the six months as the discount partially closes, well short of the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA break below $115 on rising volume, or a broad risk-off regime shift pushing HIG under $120, would falsify gradual mean reversion.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $136.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $136.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $130.00–$142.20 typical range · internal point $135.20 | — | ±4.5% | 7/10 | sentiment dead zone, low beta, minimal near-term movement |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $127.27–$144.93 typical range · internal point $133.50 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | drift lower as risk-on tape favors higher-beta names |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $137.00 | — | +0.7% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings season approaches, insurer stability bid |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $142.00 | — | +4.3% | 5/10 | post-earnings beat momentum if pattern holds |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $145.50 | — | +6.9% | 4/10 | year-end value rotation into cheap quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $148.00 | — | +8.7% | 4/10 | January effect, value discount slowly narrows |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $152.00 | — | +11.7% | 3/10 | gradual multiple expansion toward fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $230.01 (+69.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $136.10 |
| Composite fair value | $330.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $346.51 |
| DCF fair value | $398.78 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $194.57 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.9% 3m 22.5% 6m 20.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.47 3m -0.69 5m -0.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | HIG-20260822-162205-9847 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-HIG-20260822-164220-6bbb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-HIG-20260822-164220-6bbb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-HIG-20260822-164220-6bbb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-HIG-20260822-164220-6bbb |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | HIG-20260822-162205-9847 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $136.10 | $152.00 | +11.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.