Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$281.88
6-month call
Bear -8.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$258.00
Great value below
$195.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.5% to $258.00
Predicted High
$288.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$258.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
HWM trends lower to
$258.00
(-8.5% from $281.88)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHWM rides aerospace supercycle momentum and risk-on tape near-term with beat-and-raise tailwinds, but extreme overvaluation (5x fair value) creates gravity that caps upside and induces mild mean-reversion over 6 months. No earnings catalyst in window means momentum decay dominates the back half.
Invalidated ifBreak below $250 on volume, or aerospace demand guide-down from Boeing/Airbus, or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the near-term strength thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $281.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $281.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $264.87–$298.89 typical range · internal point $285.50 | — | ±6.0% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price higher short-term |
| What actually happened: closed $271.71 on Aug 21, 2026 = -3.6% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $257.24–$306.52 typical range · internal point $288.00 | — | ±8.7% | 6/10 | Supercycle narrative intact, no catalyst to break trend |
| What actually happened: closed $259.27 on Sep 4, 2026 = -8.0% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $283.00 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Consolidation as overvaluation weighs, no earnings catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $222.75 on Oct 7, 2026 = -21.0% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 21.4 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $275.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk emerges, valuation gravity begins pulling |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $268.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended aerospace winners |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $262.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | January rotation away from expensive industrials |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $258.00 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Fair-value gravity slowly compresses premium multiple |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $238.99 (-15.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $281.88 |
| Composite fair value | $57.06 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $66.77 |
| DCF fair value | $42.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $112.94 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $195.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.4% 3m 30.3% 6m 35.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.84 3m 0.83 5m 1.12 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 34.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | HWM-20260808-000712-b107 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-HWM-20260808-004135-5814 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-HWM-20260808-004135-5814 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-HWM-20260808-004135-5814 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-HWM-20260808-004135-5814 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | HWM-20260808-000712-b107 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | HWM-20260808-000712-b107 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $281.88 | $258.00 | -8.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $277.91 | $236.24 | -15.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.