ICE
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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$150.54
6-month call
Neutral -3.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$145.50
Great value below
$125.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.3% to $145.50
Predicted High
$152.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$145.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:28 am
Neutral
ICE trends range-bound to
$145.50
(-3.3% from $150.54)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisICE trades above composite fair value but enjoys a risk-on tape, durable monopoly narrative, and strong earnings momentum. Expect modest near-term drift higher on sentiment, then gradual gravity toward the anchored-PE fair value around $145-150 as valuation concerns weigh.
Invalidated ifA break below $135 on volume, or regime shift to risk-off, would invalidate the sideways-to-slightly-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $150.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $150.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $142.32–$158.76 typical range · internal point $151.80 | — | ±5.5% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and monopoly narrative sustain drift |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $138.63–$162.45 typical range · internal point $152.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind continues, low volatility grind |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $150.00 | — | -0.4% | 5/10 | Valuation chatter begins to cap upside |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $148.50 | — | -1.4% | 5/10 | Earnings print risk, gravity toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $147.00 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, mild mean reversion |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $146.00 | — | -3.0% | 4/10 | Composite fair value pull, regime uncertainty |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $145.50 | — | -3.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE and DCF midpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $149.33 (-0.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $150.54 |
| Composite fair value | $120.81 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $127.58 |
| DCF fair value | $132.62 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $153.39 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $125.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +69 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.2% 3m 27.4% 6m 27.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.53 3m -0.07 5m 0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ICE-20260811-004346-6ee5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ICE-20260811-011837-4d80 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ICE-20260811-011837-4d80 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ICE-20260811-011837-4d80 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ICE-20260811-011837-4d80 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ICE-20260811-004346-6ee5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ICE-20260811-004346-6ee5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $150.54 | $145.50 | -3.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.