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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Watch · Gem Score -13 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 69 · Value -67 · Sentiment 24 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $124.20 vs $150.54 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE NYSEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. is a diversified financial services company that provides market infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions to participants across global financial and commodity markets. The firm operates regulated marketplaces for the listing, trading, and clearing of derivatives and securities spanning commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange, equities, and exchange-traded funds, supporting price discovery, liquidity, and risk management for institutional and corporate clients. Through its Exchanges segment, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. runs major futures and options markets and other regulated venues, while the Fixed Income and Data Services segment delivers pricing, indices, analytics, reference data, and execution services, including clearing for credit default swaps. Its Mortgage Technology segment offers an end-to-end digital workflow platform that streamlines origination, closing, servicing, and secondary-market activities in the U.S. residential mortgage lifecycle. Founded in 2000 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. plays a central role in modern capital markets by connecting financial institutions, corporations, and government entities to mission-critical trading, clearing, data, and technology infrastructure across North America, Europe, and other key global regions.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.77
Total Equity: $28.99B
Shares: 574,523,397
Total Debt: $19.64B
Cash: $837.00M
EBITDA: $6.78B
Total Debt: $19.64B
Cash: $837.00M
Revenue: $12.64B
Revenue: $12.64B
Revenue: $12.64B
Total Equity: $28.99B
Tax Rate: 22.5%
Equity: $28.99B
Total Debt: $19.64B
Cash: $837.00M
Current Liabilities: $84.12B
Long-Term Debt: $18.61B
Total Debt: $19.64B
Total Equity: $28.99B
Shares: 574,523,397
Shares: 574,523,397
CapEx: -$373.00M
Shares: 574,523,397
Stock Price: $150.54
Net Income: $3.32B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:04am (60d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.2B | $9.6B | $9.9B | $11.8B | $12.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $5.2B | $5.5B |
| Gross Profit | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.7B | $6.5B | $7.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Operating Income | $3.6B | $3.7B | $4.0B | $4.4B | $5.0B |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $1.4B | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.3B |
| EBITDA | $7.2B | $3.5B | $5.2B | $6.2B | $6.8B |
| EPS | $7.22 | $2.59 | $4.20 | $4.80 | $5.79 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.18 | $2.58 | $4.19 | $4.78 | $5.77 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 6:53am (62d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | $1.8B | $899.0M | $844.0M | $837.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $154.3B | $156.9B | $85.0B | $89.1B | $85.8B |
| Total Assets | $193.5B | $194.3B | $136.1B | $139.4B | $136.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $153.4B | $149.2B | $84.6B | $89.6B | $84.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $12.4B | $18.1B | $20.7B | $17.3B | $18.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $170.8B | $171.6B | $110.3B | $111.7B | $107.9B |
| Total Equity | $22.7B | $22.8B | $25.8B | $27.7B | $29.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $14.4B | $14.9B | $16.4B | $18.1B | $20.3B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 6:53am (62d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.1B | $3.6B | $3.5B | $4.6B | $4.7B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$179.0M | -$225.0M | -$190.0M | -$406.0M | -$373.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $4.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$66.0M | -$59.0M | -$10.2B | -$38.0M | -$19.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $2.6B | $11.6B | $4.7B | $2.3B | $3.7B |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$250.0M | -$632.0M | $0 | $0 | -$1.3B |
| Net Change in Cash | $64.4B | $2.4B | -$69.6B | $3.8B | -$5.9B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:04am (60d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +5.1% | +2.8% | +18.8% | +7.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +3.7% | +8.8% | +15.3% | +8.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +5.1% | +6.2% | +11.4% | +13.3% |
| Net Income Growth | -64.4% | +63.8% | +16.3% | +20.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | -50.9% | +46.2% | +19.1% | +9.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:04am (60d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-17 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-13 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-13 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-15 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-16 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-16 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-15 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-05 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -17%; a −1σ run costs 52%. Ratio -0.3:1 (μ 10.2%, σ 7.1% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.3 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($150.54) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +16% | 34.6% | $125.79 | -16% |
| Base — stabilizes | +11% | 30.1% | $94.05 | -38% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 25.6% | $68.89 | -54% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -1% | 32.3% | $68.98 | -54% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +17% | 33.1% | $125.35 | -17% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +3% | 29.1% | $71.68 | -52% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory is stronger than the "mature earner" label suggests. TTM revenue runs ~$13.4B (Q3'25 through Q2'26: $3.01+$3.14+$3.67+$3.61) versus $11.76B in FY24 — that's ~14% growth, not the low-single-digit utility the bear narrative describes. Net margin has expanded from 21.7% in Q3'24 to 26.5-38.5% in the last two quarters (Q1'26's 38.5% looks like a one-timer — likely an MSCI-related gain or tax benefit; strip it and normalized margin sits ~27%, still up 500bps YoY). Earnings CAGR of 18% on revenue CAGR of 13% is genuine operating leverage from the Black Knight integration, not narrative fluff. FCF of $4.29B on $84.5B market cap is a 5.1% FCF yield — not cheap, not egregious for a regulated duopoly with clearinghouse switching costs.
Where I diverge from the synthesis: the $120.81 composite fair value looks too punitive. It appears to anchor on trailing multiples without crediting the margin ramp or the mortgage-tech cross-sell that's finally materializing (Q1'26 revenue of $3.67B was a step-function, not noise — Q2 held $3.61B). At ~5% FCF yield growing 13%, a reasonable DCF with 8% discount and 3% terminal lands closer to $155-165, not $127. The Market Forces "cyclical peak" claim is the weakest link — ICE's revenue mix is now ~55% recurring data/mortgage/listings, so it's less cyclical than CME's transaction-heavy book. Calling this "priced for perfection" at 26x P/E when SPGI trades 35x and MCO trades 40x, on similar moat characteristics, ignores relative positioning. The narrative layer's $127-130 fundamental floor plus $20 moat premium feels roughly right, but I'd flip the split: fundamentals justify $140+, and only ~$10 is narrative.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: leverage. $19.64B debt against $837M cash and $28.99B equity gives net debt/EBITDA ~2.8x — manageable but not trivial if rates stay elevated and refinancing hits. ROIC of 8.1% is unimpressive against a WACC likely 7-8%; the company is barely creating economic value on incremental capital, which is a real concern for a "compounder" thesis. The Black Knight deal (~$13B) is still digesting, and mortgage origination volume is macro-dependent — a 2026-27 housing stall would expose the goodwill. Insider activity shows five sales on 2026-07-16 totaling ~15,882 shares against option exercises of the same size; this is mechanical exercise-and-sell, not conviction selling, but there's zero open-market buying anywhere in the window. "Lagging sector peers" also deserves respect — if NDAQ and CME are outperforming, ICE-specific issues (mortgage tech drag, integration fatigue) may be real.
Net: I dissent partially from the fully_priced verdict. The synthesis is triangulating on stale multiples and underweighting the accelerating quarterly print ($3.01B → $3.61B in three quarters is not "moderating growth"). But I also can't call this undervalued at $150 with ROIC below 10% and net debt/EBITDA near 3x — a 15% pullback to $128 would be a table-pounder; here, it's a hold with a modest lean positive. Fair value ~$150-160, so current price sits inside the fair band rather than 15% above it as the composite claims. The right posture is fairly valued with an upward bias if Q3'26 confirms the margin structure at 27%+ ex-items. The bearish "priced for perfection" framing requires believing the last two quarters were flukes; the accelerating quarterly trend flag from Revenue Confidence contradicts that, and I side with the trend.
GPT Reading
ICE is earning its premium, but not this much of one. The raw business is excellent: 2025 revenue grew to $12.64B from $11.76B, operating income rose to $5.00B from $4.41B, and net income to $3.32B from $2.75B. That is not a stagnant exchange utility. The latest four quarters annualize to roughly $13.4B of revenue and about $4.0B of net income, implying the business has stepped up again in 2026 despite some quarterly lumpiness. Margins are structurally strong—2025 operating margin was 39.6% and net margin 26.2%—and free cash flow of $4.29B on just $373M of capex shows how little capital the franchise needs to sustain itself. This is exactly the kind of financial infrastructure asset that deserves to trade above the average market multiple.
What stands out, though, is that the market is already capitalizing ICE like a high-confidence compounder with cleaner growth than the reported cadence really shows. At $84.5B equity value and about $103B enterprise value after net debt, investors are paying about 6.7x trailing sales, 15.5x EBITDA, and 26x earnings for a company whose recent quarterly revenue pattern is solid but not explosive: $3.23B, $3.26B, $3.01B, $3.14B, then $3.67B and $3.61B. The step-up in 2026 is encouraging, but Q2 revenue was down sequentially and Q2 net margin fell sharply to 26.5% from 38.5% in Q1. Even if that Q1 margin was unusually high, it highlights that ICE is still a somewhat episodic earner rather than a perfectly smooth annuity. On the full-year numbers, revenue has compounded well since 2021, but part of the earnings story is recovery from depressed 2022 profitability: net income was $4.06B in 2021, collapsed to $1.45B in 2022, and only by 2025 reached $3.32B again. A premium multiple is fine; paying near-best-in-class multiples for a business still proving the steadiness of its newer mix is less fine.
The balance sheet and return profile reinforce that this is quality, but not a screaming bargain. Debt of $19.64B against only $837M of cash is manageable because cash generation is strong, yet it limits the case for a much richer valuation absent faster growth. Debt-to-equity at 0.68 is acceptable, but not trivial for a company yielding only 1.3%. Return on equity of 11.4% and ROIC of 8.1% are good, not exceptional enough on their own to justify paying almost 3.0x book and over 8x EV/revenue. If I normalize the business around $4.3B-$4.7B of annual free cash flow, the stock is trading around a 5.1%-5.6% FCF yield before any real margin of safety. For an exchange/data asset with strong moat characteristics, that is defensible. For one facing modest macro headwinds and not obviously reaccelerating into double-digit organic growth, it looks full.
The best case against my skepticism is straightforward: ICE has quietly put together better growth than the “mature earner” label implies. Revenue went from $9.90B in 2023 to $11.76B in 2024 to $12.64B in 2025, and the last two reported quarters of 2026 are both above any quarter in 2025. Net income in Q2 2026 was up 12.6% year over year, and Q1 2026 was up 76.9%, so the earnings base may be inflecting more positively than the headline valuation suggests. A buyer can also argue that comparing ICE to ordinary financials is wrong: this is regulated market plumbing with recurring data and clearing economics, and those assets rarely get cheap. If the mix keeps shifting toward higher-quality data, index, and workflow revenue, today’s 26x earnings could prove entirely reasonable. I weigh that argument lower because the reported return metrics and quarterly margin volatility still look more like a premium cyclical-infrastructure hybrid than a true software-like compounding machine.
What would change my mind is not another narrative about moats; it is evidence that the moat is translating into a higher, steadier earnings base. If ICE can deliver the next two quarters at or above roughly $3.6B revenue with net margins holding above 30% rather than slipping back into the mid-20s, then a $150 stock starts to look supported by a sustainable ~$4.5B+ run-rate in earnings power. I would also get more constructive if free cash flow moves decisively above $5B annually without leverage rising, or if management shows that 2026’s step-up is organic and durable rather than event-driven. Absent that, I think the stock deserves to trade closer to the high-$120s to high-$130s than the current $150.54.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a high-quality franchise that has already been paid for. ICE printed $12.64B of 2025 revenue and $4.29B of free cash flow on only $373M of capex, with operating margins near 40% and net margins at 26%. The multi-year step-up from the $9.6–9.9B revenue base of 2022–23 into the $11.8–12.6B range is real, and trailing earnings CAGR of 18% has outrun the 13% revenue CAGR, so operating leverage is still working. But the most recent quarterly run-rate tells a quieter story: revenue is oscillating in a $3.0–3.7B band with only ~7.5% recent YoY growth, and the $1.41B net-income spike in the March 2026 quarter (38.5% margin) is an outlier against a more normal $800–950M quarterly earnings level. Strip that one-timer and you have a mid-to-high-single-digit top-line grower throwing off excellent cash, not an acceleration story.
What stands out against the valuation models is the capital return profile. ROIC sits at 8.1% and ROE at 11.4% while the stock clears a 26x P/E, 15.5x EV/EBITDA, and 8.3x EV/sales. That is a premium multiple on mid-teens returns on capital, financed with $19.6B of debt against $837M of cash and a current ratio of barely 1.0. The composite fair-value work at roughly $128 is directionally right: at $150.54 the market is embedding roughly an 18% narrative premium for clearing stickiness and data/index optionality on top of steady FCF. That premium is not crazy given the oligopoly structure, but it leaves almost no margin if mortgage-tech contribution (the Black Knight layer that juiced the 2024 revenue jump) normalizes or if exchange volumes mean-revert under the flagged macro headwinds. Secondary signals already show the stock lagging sector peers; the multiple is doing the heavy lifting that growth no longer is.
The strongest case against calling this overvalued is the cash-flow durability and the peer framing. FCF quality is unambiguously strong, conversion from operating cash is excellent, and a regulated clearing-plus-data platform with high switching costs can sustain mid-20s earnings multiples when rates and volatility cooperate. Relative to SPGI at ~35x, ICE looks like the cheaper infrastructure compounder; the 13% revenue and 13% FCF CAGRs are not “utility” numbers, and net margins have expanded from the low-20s toward 26% as the mix shifts. A bull can fairly argue that $4.3B of annual FCF against an $84.5B equity value, plus a 1.3% dividend and continued data monetization, supports a mid-teens EV/EBITDA floor and that the $128 composite is too punitive on a through-cycle basis. Insider activity is noise (option exercises and modest sales), not a tell. That case is real—it just requires the 7–8% growth and margin structure to hold while the market keeps paying for the platform-monopoly narrative.
I still weigh the other side more heavily because ROIC in the 8% range does not justify a perfection multiple when leverage is elevated and growth has already decelerated from the acquisition-fueled years. The fundamentals can carry something closer to $125–135; the remaining $15–25 is story. What would flip me is sustained quarterly revenue above $3.8–4.0B with net margins holding above 28% (proving the data/mortgage stack is compounding, not one-off), a clear path to ROIC above 12%, or a multiple compression into the low-20s P/E / ~13x EV/EBITDA that re-opens a margin of safety. Conversely, two consecutive quarters of sub-5% revenue growth or FCF falling under $3.5B annualized would confirm the premium is simply wrong.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Intercontinental Exchange is a mature earner running at scale: revenue climbed from 9.17B in 2021 to 12.64B in 2025 (about 8% CAGR), gross margin sits at 55-57%, and operating margin holds near 38-40%. Net income recovered from a 2022 dip (1.45B, likely a one-off charge given OCF/NI 1.56x) to 3.32B in 2025, while FCF grew steadily to 4.29B. Earnings quality is clean: accruals -0.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.45, and OCF comfortably above net income all point to real cash earnings, not paper. Capital discipline is genuine - diluted share CAGR of 0.4% with buybacks running about 2x SBC (1.9% of revenue), so per-share value is protected. The main structural concern is leverage: net debt of roughly 18.8B against only 837M in liquid cash, with 1.04B of short-term debt exceeding cash on hand. Altman Z of 0.9 flags distress on the model, but that model is calibrated for asset-heavy manufacturers, not toll-booth exchange operators with contractual data revenue and 4.3B annual FCF - the debt is comfortably serviceable at these cash flow levels. Insider activity is neutral: routine option-exercise-and-sell by one officer, no directional signal. Overall this is a durable, wide-moat financial-infrastructure business whose only real quality knock is the leveraged capital structure inherited from ICE's acquisition history (NYSE, IDC, Ellie Mae, Black Knight).
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average interest rate on the 18.8B gross debt stack
- Nature of the 2022 net income drop (impairment, acquisition costs, or fair-value marks)
- Revenue mix between transaction (cyclical) and recurring data/mortgage-tech (stable), and Mortgage Technology segment profitability post-Black Knight
- Customer/counterparty concentration in the exchange and clearing businesses
- Any covenants tied to leverage ratios given the elevated debt load
The composite fair value lands at $120.81 and the signal-adjusted FV at $127.58, implying roughly 15-18% downside from today's $150.54. The DCF ($132.62) is the most generous cash-flow method and still sits ~12% below spot; the anchored P/E of $153.39 essentially matches price, meaning the market is already paying the peer/history multiple in full. The EPV floor of $64.59 is a runaway low-side scenario (no-growth steady state) and should be treated as a downside anchor, not a target.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic (ex-M&A) revenue growth in Exchanges vs Fixed Income & Data Services segments
- Clearing margin/regulatory commentary in next call
- Capital return pace vs debt paydown - management's stated leverage target
- Mortgage Technology segment inflection or continued drag
The tape is mildly risk-on (regime score +47, VIX 15.5, S&P near highs) and ICE's 0.93 beta means it fully participates without the whiplash a high-beta name would take. More importantly for THIS stock, the narrative is working: a durable platform-monopoly story with moderate intensity is exactly the kind of framing that holds up in a calm-but-not-euphoric tape, since money is rotating toward quality infrastructure rather than chasing high-beta stories. July operating metrics (ADV +25% YoY, open interest +18%) give the bulls a fresh, concrete data point to point at, and the Mortgage Monitor headline reinforces the data-monopoly angle.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst target revisions follow the strong July volume print upward or stay anchored on 'above fair value'
- Any softening in ADV/OI in the August print that would puncture the growth-narrative refresh
- Rotation out of quality-infrastructure into higher-beta cyclicals if the risk-on regime intensifies (would mute this tailwind)
- CLARITY Act progression and any direct read-through to ICE's clearing/data segments
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 11, 2026, ICE was $150.54. We expect it to be $145.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $125.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 11, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 25%
adjusted_pe
flips down 25%