Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$38.34
6-month call
Bear -21.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$30.00
Great value below
$28.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-21.8% to $30.00
Predicted High
$37.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$30.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:08 pm
Bear
IOT trends lower to
$30.00
(-21.8% from $38.34)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisIOT is a story-priced SaaS name with rich valuation (attractive only below $28) and negative value/quality/sentiment lenses, but a strong 6-month uptrend and a 3-for-3 beat streak provide near-term support. Absent an imminent print, I expect modest early drift lower on risk-off sentiment, a bounce attempt, then gradual value gravity pulling it toward the high-20s over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $42 on volume, or a blowout guide raise, would invalidate the fade; conversely a break below $32 accelerates decay past targets.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $38.34 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $38.34 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $33.93–$42.75 typical range · internal point $37.60 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Risk-off tape and negative sentiment weigh mildly |
| What actually happened: closed $40.66 on Sep 16, 2026 = +6.1% vs the call (predicted -1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $31.95–$44.73 typical range · internal point $36.80 | — | ±16.7% | 5/10 | Continued sentiment drag, no catalyst to lift |
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $37.50 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | Oversold bounce as beat history reasserts |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $35.50 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking on rich multiples |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $33.00 | — | -13.9% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity begins asserting |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $31.50 | — | -17.8% | 3/10 | Drift toward fair-value zone continues |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $30.00 | — | -21.8% | 3/10 | Approaching attractive-below-28 anchor over time |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $38.34 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -18 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.2% 3m 57.8% 6m 64.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.53 3m 0.55 5m 0.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 28.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | IOT-20260903-040001-0595 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IOT-20260903-043104-8378 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IOT-20260903-043104-8378 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IOT-20260903-043104-8378 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IOT-20260903-043104-8378 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | IOT-20260903-040001-0595 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | IOT-20260903-040001-0595 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $38.34 | $30.00 | -21.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.