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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Samsara Inc. Class A Common Stock (IOT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-13): Designation Low · Gem Score -46 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -18 · Value -68 · Sentiment -38 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Samsara Inc. Class A Common Stock
IOT NYSESamsara Inc. Class A Common Stock represents equity in Samsara Inc., a San Francisco-based software company focused on connected operations for physical businesses. Samsara’s current platform combines IoT devices, cloud software, and data analytics to help organizations collect, unify, and act on operational data from vehicles, equipment, sites, and field teams. Its products are used across transportation, logistics, construction, manufacturing, utilities, government, healthcare, and other industries, supporting use cases such as fleet management, asset tracking, safety monitoring, workflow digitization, and industrial automation. The company serves customers in North America and internationally through subscription-based software and hardware solutions built around real-time visibility and operational intelligence. Samsara plays a significant role in the market for industrial IoT and operational technology by linking physical assets with digital systems that improve how businesses monitor, manage, and coordinate day-to-day operations.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.02
Total Equity: $1.42B
Shares: 573,483,155
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $318.79M
EBITDA: -$28.53M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $318.79M
Revenue: $1.62B
Shares: 573,483,155
Revenue: $1.62B
Revenue: $1.62B
Revenue: $1.62B
Total Equity: $1.42B
Tax Rate: 1,106.3%
Equity: $1.42B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $318.79M
Current Liabilities: $917.04M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.42B
Shares: 573,483,155
Shares: 573,483,155
CapEx: -$28.77M
Shares: 573,483,155
Stock Price: $36.79
Net Income: -$9.12M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 4:14am (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $428.3M | $652.5M | $937.4M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $124.5M | $182.7M | $247.0M | $298.3M | $376.5M |
| Gross Profit | $303.9M | $469.9M | $690.4M | $950.9M | $1.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $657.7M | $729.3M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Operating Income | -$353.8M | -$259.5M | -$323.3M | -$190.0M | -$52.6M |
| Net Income | -$355.0M | -$247.4M | -$286.7M | -$154.9M | -$9.1M |
| EBITDA | -$343.5M | -$247.7M | -$307.8M | -$169.3M | -$28.5M |
| EPS | $-1.28 | $-0.48 | $-0.54 | $-0.28 | $-0.02 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.28 | $-0.48 | $-0.54 | $-0.28 | $-0.02 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 4:00am (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $921.2M | $200.7M | $135.5M | $227.6M | $318.8M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.1B | $957.5M | $887.0M | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| Total Assets | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $338.3M | $442.2M | $591.8M | $761.3M | $917.0M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $579.0M | $679.0M | $819.7M | $955.1M | $1.1B |
| Total Equity | $988.9M | $938.0M | $915.1M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
| Retained Earnings | -$921.0M | -$1.2B | -$1.5B | -$1.6B | -$1.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 4:31am (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$171.5M | -$103.0M | -$11.8M | $131.7M | $236.2M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$19.4M | -$33.2M | -$11.0M | -$20.2M | -$28.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$190.8M | -$136.3M | -$22.8M | $111.5M | $207.4M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $-5,000 | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $510.0M | -$720.5M | -$69.0M | $91.1M | $79.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 4:14am (10d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +52.3% | +43.7% | +33.3% | +29.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +54.6% | +46.9% | +37.7% | +30.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +26.7% | -24.6% | +41.2% | +72.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +30.3% | -15.9% | +46.0% | +94.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | +27.9% | -24.3% | +45.0% | +83.2% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-13 02:03A +1σ run of quarters pays -90%; a −1σ run costs 93%. Ratio -1.0:1 (μ 31.5%, σ 5.1% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($36.79) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +45% | 17.3% | $14.57 | -60% |
| Base — stabilizes | +30% | 15.0% | $8.46 | -77% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +15% | 12.8% | $4.65 | -87% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +28% | 4.9% | $2.83 | -92% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +37% | 4.9% | $3.54 | -90% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +26% | 4.9% | $2.68 | -93% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-03 04:41The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue went $300M → $322M → $346M → $367M → $391M → $416M → $444M → $479M over eight quarters — roughly $22-28M sequential adds, remarkably linear, with YoY holding at ~29-30%. That's not decelerating in any alarming way; that's a business adding roughly the same absolute dollars each quarter, which mathematically compresses the growth rate but reflects durable execution. Net income swung from -$49.6M to +$44.5M over the same window — a $94M swing on ~$180M of incremental quarterly revenue, implying ~50% incremental margins. FY26 delivered $1.62B revenue (+29.6%), gross margin 76.7%, $207M FCF, and near-GAAP-breakeven. This is a clean SaaS inflection story on the numbers.
Where I diverge from the models: the "Market Forces" call of neutral-with-material-downside and the Thesis Evaluation's -4 score both feel over-indexed on the insider selling and "poor FCF quality" tags. The insider selling — ten sales clustered on Aug 19-20, 2026 — looks like scheduled 10b5-1 diversification post-IPO lockup evolution, not a smoke signal; the sizes (mostly under 50K shares) aren't executive-level dumps. And "poor FCF quality" on a company generating $207M FCF against $236M operating CF (88% conversion) is a strange flag — that's high-quality FCF; the issue is probably SBC add-back, which is legitimate criticism but doesn't make the cash unreal. The Narrative model's claim that price is "70-80% story" also overstates it: at 13x sales with 30% growth, 77% gross margins, and now positive FCF, a rule-of-40 comparable set (CRWD, NOW, DDOG) trades 12-18x — Samsara is mid-pack, not obviously narrative-inflated.
The contrarian case that actually matters isn't "hardware commoditization" (Geotab has existed for two decades and Samsara still grew 30%) — it's the second derivative. Sequential adds have been $22-28M for six quarters running; if that absolute-dollar cadence holds, FY27 revenue lands around $2.05B (26% growth) and FY28 around $2.45B (20%). At 13x sales the market is not pricing 20% growth — it's pricing sustained 25-30% for three-plus years plus margin expansion to the 20-25% operating range. The synthesis's "high conviction required" framing is right that this is a bet on trajectory continuation, but the math is tighter than "heroic 60% growth" bears claim; the real risk is a step-down to 22-25% growth in FY27, which would compress the multiple to 8-10x and imply a ~$25 stock. Data is thin on NDR trajectory (the 121% figure isn't in the raw file, it's asserted) and on SBC magnitude — both matter enormously here.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is that Samsara has already done the hard part operationally, but the stock is priced as if the next hard part is almost guaranteed. Revenue has compounded from $428.3M in FY2022 to $1.62B in FY2026, and the quarterly run-rate has reached $478.8M, implying roughly $1.9B annualized. Even more important, the income statement has inflected fast: quarterly net margin improved from -16.5% in August 2024 to +9.3% in May 2026, while annual operating loss narrowed from -$323.3M in FY2024 to -$52.6M in FY2026. This is not a speculative “maybe someday” SaaS story anymore; it is a real business with 76.7% gross margin, $236.2M of operating cash flow, $207.4M of free cash flow, and no debt. The balance sheet is clean enough that there is no financing risk clouding the thesis. On raw business quality, this is a very good company.
The problem is that the stock price already capitalizes that improvement and then some. At $36.79, Samsara is worth $21.44B, or about 13.0x trailing sales and 12.8x EV/revenue on FY2026 numbers. Using the latest quarter annualized, the multiple is still roughly 11x revenue. That is rich for a company growing about 30% year over year, not 50%-plus, and still only barely breakeven on an annual GAAP basis with FY2026 net loss of $9.1M. The market is effectively underwriting several things at once: sustained high-20s growth despite increasing scale, continued margin expansion from roughly flat operating margin to something much closer to mature software levels, and no real compression from the hardware element of the model. The recent quarterly margin trajectory is excellent, but 9.3% net margin on one quarter does not justify paying a software-leader multiple for a business whose annual operating margin is still negative 3.3%.
The other thing the numbers say is that this is a business in transition from “growth at all costs” to “disciplined compounder,” and transitions are exactly where valuation risk is highest. Revenue growth has decelerated from the hypergrowth phase into the high-20s/low-30s zone; that is healthy, but it changes what multiple the market should pay. Free cash flow of $207.4M against a $21.44B market cap is roughly a 1.0% FCF yield, which leaves almost no room for execution slippage. The market seems to want to look through annual GAAP losses because quarterly profitability has arrived, and that is directionally fair, but it can also lead investors to over-extrapolate a few strong quarters into a mature earnings power that has not yet been proven across a full cycle. Add in the cluster of insider sales and I have a hard time arguing there is a margin of safety here, even if the business itself continues to perform.
The strongest case against this view is straightforward: maybe this is exactly the moment when expensive-looking becomes cheap in hindsight. Few software companies reach nearly $500M in quarterly revenue, maintain gross margins in the mid-70s, turn free cash flow strongly positive, and do it debt-free. If Samsara can keep growing around 28-30% while converting that growth into 10%+ operating margins over the next year or two, today’s 11-13x sales could compress naturally into something reasonable without the stock going down. A smart bull would also argue that annual figures understate current earnings power: the latest two quarters produced $66.5M of net income combined, versus a full-year FY2026 loss of just $9.1M, so annualized profitability may be inflecting faster than backward-looking ratios imply. I weigh that differently because the stock is not priced for “improving”; it is priced for “best-in-class and durable.”
What would change my mind is not another quarter of 28-30% growth alone, but proof that Samsara can hold that growth while making profitability repeatable. If the next few quarters show revenue sustainably above a $2.0B annual run-rate, GAAP operating margin moving solidly positive on a trailing twelve-month basis, and free cash flow scaling toward $300M+ without a hit to growth, I would accept that the premium is deserved. Conversely, if growth slips toward the low 20s while margins stall around breakeven, the current valuation should de-rate sharply; that would confirm this is a very good company priced like a great inevitability.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a clean inflection story that the valuation has already fully capitalized. Samsara scaled from $428M revenue in FY2022 to $1.62B in FY2026, a 31% CAGR, while quarterly revenue marched from $300M to $479M with almost mechanical consistency. More important than the top line is the margin path: net margins went from −16.5% to +9.3% in eight quarters, and the latest annual free cash flow of $207M on only $29M of capex produces a ~13% FCF margin that looks nothing like the old burn narrative. Gross margin at 76.7% is already software-grade despite the hardware attach, the balance sheet carries zero debt and $319M cash, and operating cash flow of $236M confirms the earnings quality is real, not accounting theater. The company has effectively crossed the profitability threshold on a run-rate basis even though the trailing annual NI is still a trivial −$9M.
That said, the market is not giving this away. At $36.79 and a $21.4B enterprise, the stock trades at 13× trailing sales and ~12.8× EV/revenue while recent revenue growth has already decelerated to 29.6% year-over-year. A 30% grower with mid-teens FCF margins and still-negative GAAP operating income does not ordinarily clear a 13-turn sales multiple unless the market is underwriting sustained 25%+ growth for many years plus operating margins expanding toward the mid-20s. The heavy cluster of insider sales in August 2026—hundreds of thousands of shares across multiple filings with no offsetting buys—sits poorly next to that premium. Hardware dependency remains embedded in the model; if device ASP pressure or mix shift materializes, the software-margin story the multiple assumes becomes harder to defend. Revenue confidence is explicitly tagged decelerating, and secondary signals flag poor cash-flow quality optics alongside macro headwinds.
The strongest counter-argument is that this is precisely the moment growth SaaS compounds: 121% net dollar retention (cited in the thesis layer), a fragmented physical-operations TAM still dominated by point solutions, and operating leverage that has already flipped FCF positive while revenue is still compounding near 30%. A bull can reasonably say the 13× multiple is the entry ticket to a multi-year platform consolidation, not a terminal multiple, and that zero debt plus $200M+ FCF gives the company years of optionality to buy growth or weather a slowdown. I weigh that less heavily because the narrative layer itself admits the price is 70–80% story, durability is only moderate, and any sustained slip below the mid-20s growth band collapses the platform-monopoly framing that justifies the current capitalization. The data already show deceleration; the insiders appear to be acting on it.
I would reverse to a constructive stance if the next two quarters re-accelerate revenue growth above 32–33% while FCF margins hold or expand above 15%, or if management demonstrates software-only mix that lifts gross margin through 80% without sacrificing the hardware lock-in that underpins retention. Sustained large open-market insider buying would also matter more than another polished platform narrative on an earnings call.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Samsara's business trajectory is genuinely strong at the top line: revenue has compounded from $428M (FY22) to $1.62B (FY26), gross margin has expanded from 70.9% to 76.7%, and operating margin has climbed from -82.6% to -3.2%. FCF has inflected from -$190.8M to +$207.4M, and the balance sheet carries $318.8M net cash with Altman Z of 11.44, so survival is not a question. Accruals (-12.1% of assets), OCF/NI relationship, and Beneish (-2.59) show no mechanical earnings-quality flags. The concern is that the shareholder economics lag the business economics. Diluted shares grew from 277.5M to 573.5M (roughly doubled in four years, 19.9% CAGR), SBC runs at 19.5% of revenue (~$316M annualized on $1.62B), and buybacks offset 0% of it. That means the entire reported FCF of $207M is effectively less than the SBC charge itself - a large real compensation cost is sitting outside GAAP operating loss narratives, and per-share value creation is materially behind headline growth. Insiders reinforce the picture: 94 sales / 0 buys for ~$79.6M over 12 months, including sustained programmatic selling by CEO Bicket and co-founder Biswas. Net-net: an improving, high-quality SaaS franchise on operating metrics, but one that is still GAAP-unprofitable and funds much of its P&L improvement through equity issuance. Business is solid; capital stewardship is not yet.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition of FCF - how much comes from deferred revenue / working capital vs. underlying operations
- 10-K breakdown of SBC by function and grant vesting schedule to gauge future dilution runway
- Whether insider sales are 10b5-1 programmatic or discretionary
- Customer concentration and net revenue retention to test durability of the growth curve
- Any authorized buyback program and pace of offset relative to SBC
- Path and timeline to GAAP profitability - guidance on operating margin trajectory
Samsara trades at roughly 14x revenue for a business growing ~30% with gross margins near 76% and a nascent FCF inflection. That multiple already capitalizes the platform-monopoly narrative the bulls describe: durable 30%+ growth, expanding operating leverage, and dominance of a fragmented physical-operations market. Deserved value on quality-adjusted metrics (net of ~$400M+ annual SBC and a share count that has roughly doubled in four years) is materially lower than the headline suggests - true owner economics look closer to breakeven, not the reported FCF. Against a $36.79 price, my rough deserved range is $28-34, putting the stock modestly above fair, not cheap. The e2e synthesis pointing to a scaling SMB platform is directionally right but does not confer a discount at 14x sales. To justify $36.79 you need growth to stay above 30% for several more years AND SBC intensity to fall meaningfully - both plausible, neither cheap. There is no margin of safety here; a genuine buy requires the price to reset into the high-$20s where the quality-adjusted math starts to work.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Net revenue retention trend and any deceleration below ~115%
- SBC as a percent of revenue trajectory - is it actually scaling down
- Guided FY revenue growth and operating margin path
- Insider selling cadence and 10b5-1 plan disclosures
- Hardware attach and multi-product adoption metrics
IOT walks into a print tomorrow carrying a platform-monopoly narrative that is priced ~70-80% on story at roughly 10x revenue. The tape is only mildly stressed (VIX 15.2, S&P -1.7% off highs, regime score +19), but with beta 1.34 and a valuation dependent on sustained 50-60% growth, this name is disproportionately exposed to any risk-off flinch or rate back-up (10y at 4.79%). Yesterday IOT was explicitly named in a group that sold off on Middle East tensions and rising global yields - exactly the profile that gets hit first when duration-sensitive SaaS is in the crosshairs.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Thursday post-close earnings print - revenue growth vs the 50%+ bar and any deceleration in NRR or billings
- FY guide vs Street; any language on AI monetization pull-through
- 10y yield behavior - a push through 4.9-5.0% would intensify duration pressure on SaaS
- Post-print analyst target revisions given consensus target reportedly below spot
- Whether the Middle East / bond-yield risk-off thread from Sept 1 persists or fades
The relevant world change is the instrumentation of physical operations: sensors, cellular connectivity and cheap compute have made it economically rational to put a data layer on trucks, trailers, generators and job sites for the first time. Samsara sits on the collection side of that shift, which is why its growth outruns the broader infrastructure-software category even as that category cools. Macro cuts the other way: high rates and soft freight/construction activity shrink the physical fleets that determine seat and device counts, so the secular pull and the cyclical drag are working simultaneously. Regulatory tailwinds (safety mandates, insurance telematics pricing) and hardware tariff exposure roughly offset. AI is a real but secondary lever here — it enhances the analytics layer on proprietary operational data the company already owns rather than threatening the collection franchise, so intermediation risk is low compared with content or seat-based software.
When we made this prediction on Sep 3, 2026, IOT was $38.34. We expect it to be $30.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $28.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 3, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.