Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$79.32
6-month call
Bear -7.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$73.60
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.2% to $73.60
Predicted High
$78.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$72.50
at 3 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:20 pm
Bear
IR trends lower to
$73.60
(-7.2% from $79.32)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisIR trades at a rich premium to composite fair value ($45.93) with weakening sentiment and rolling momentum, but a risk-on tape and quality profile cushion the descent. Expect a slow grind lower with a mid-window bounce as value-hunters test $70, then resumption toward the deterministic $73-74 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $88 on volume, or a bullish M and A/guidance catalyst, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $79.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $79.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $74.09–$84.55 typical range · internal point $78.40 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Momentum roll-over drifts lower in calm tape |
| What actually happened: closed $73.58 on Sep 9, 2026 = -7.2% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $71.74–$86.90 typical range · internal point $77.10 | — | ±9.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment deterioration pressures multiple modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $76.08 on Sep 25, 2026 = -4.1% vs the call (predicted -2.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $74.80 | — | -5.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $72.50 | — | -8.6% | 5/10 | No catalyst, drift continues below 200dma |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $74.20 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalance bounce, quality bid returns |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $73.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Post-holiday fade resumes toward deserved value |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $73.60 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Settles near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $73.70 (-7.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $79.32 |
| Composite fair value | $45.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $38.50 |
| DCF fair value | $46.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $79.17 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.1% 3m 33.1% 6m 35.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.37 3m 1.04 5m 1.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -16.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | IR-20260827-020001-fb49 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-IR-20260827-022333-4b02 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-IR-20260827-022333-4b02 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-IR-20260827-022333-4b02 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-IR-20260827-022333-4b02 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | IR-20260827-020001-fb49 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | IR-20260827-020001-fb49 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $79.32 | $73.60 | -7.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.