Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$265.53
6-month call
Neutral -4.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$254.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.3% to $254.00
Predicted High
$264.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$254.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:12 am
Neutral
JNJ trends range-bound to
$254.00
(-4.3% from $265.53)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisJNJ trades well above composite fair value ($171-179) but its defensive profile, quality score, and earnings consistency support price stickiness. Expect mild drift lower as valuation gravity slowly asserts itself in a stress regime, though the low beta cushions downside. No near-term earnings catalyst to force a repricing.
Invalidated ifA break above $280 on positive pharma catalyst, or a break below $245 signaling valuation compression has begun in earnest.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $265.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $265.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $252.79–$278.27 typical range · internal point $264.20 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | Low-beta defensive holds in stress tape near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $260.86 on Aug 12, 2026 = -1.8% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $247.07–$283.99 typical range · internal point $263.00 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Mild drift as talc headline weighs modestly |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $261.50 | — | -1.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches with no calendar catalyst yet |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $259.00 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins nudging toward fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $257.50 | — | -3.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning; defensive bid partially offsets |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $256.00 | — | -3.6% | 4/10 | Tax-loss avoided on winner, holds up |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $254.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline as sentiment stale |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $254.51 (-4.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $265.53 |
| Composite fair value | $171.51 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $179.40 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.2% 3m 24.1% 6m 20.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.96 3m -0.52 5m -0.17 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JNJ-20260730-001020-3519 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JNJ-20260730-005820-bf3b |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JNJ-20260730-005820-bf3b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JNJ-20260730-005820-bf3b |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JNJ-20260730-005820-bf3b |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JNJ-20260730-001020-3519 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JNJ-20260730-001020-3519 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $265.53 | $254.00 | -4.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $231.29 | $234.04 | +1.2% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.