Business Description
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates globally, engaging in the research, development, production, and distribution of a diverse range of healthcare products. In a pivotal strategic move in 2023, the company divested its Consumer Health division, establishing it as the independent entity Kenvue Inc. This separation was implemented to allow J&J to sharpen its focus on higher-growth, innovation-led areas. Consequently, well-known consumer brands like TYLENOL, LISTERINE, and BAND-AID are now part of Kenvue's portfolio. Johnson & Johnson's current operations are centered around two primary divisions: Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment, formerly known as Pharmaceuticals, specializes in prescription drugs designed to treat complex ailments such as rheumatoid arthritis, various forms of cancer, HIV/AIDS, and neurodegenerative disorders. Its MedTech division, encompassing Medical Devices, delivers cutting-edge technological solutions, including electrophysiology equipment, neurovascular care products, orthopaedic implants for hips, knees, and spine, advanced surgical technologies, and ACUVUE brand disposable contact lenses. These two streamlined segments primarily cater to a client base comprising hospitals, medical professionals, wholesale distributors, and retail outlets. From its headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey, Johnson & Johnson continues to uphold its enduring mission of advancing human health, a commitment it has maintained since its founding in 1886.
Business History
Generated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 11.03
Total Equity: $81.54B
Shares: 2,429,400,000
Total Debt: $47.93B
Cash: $19.71B
EBITDA: $41.06B
Total Debt: $47.93B
Cash: $19.71B
Revenue: $94.19B
Revenue: $94.19B
Revenue: $94.19B
Total Equity: $81.54B
Tax Rate: 17.7%
Equity: $81.54B
Total Debt: $47.93B
Cash: $19.71B
Current Liabilities: $54.13B
Long-Term Debt: $39.44B
Total Debt: $47.93B
Total Equity: $81.54B
Shares: 2,429,400,000
Shares: 2,429,400,000
CapEx: -$4.83B
Shares: 2,429,400,000
Stock Price: $231.29
Net Income: $26.80B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
JNJ is operating as a mature compounder with high earnings integrity. Revenue grew from 78.7B in 2022 to 94.2B in 2025 (about 6% CAGR), gross margin expanded from 70.3% to 72.8%, and operating margin held in the 25-27% range despite the Kenvue separation noise. FCF is remarkably stable at roughly 19-20B per year, OCF/NI of 1.12x, accruals of -0.1% of assets, Beneish M of -2.5 and Altman Z of 4.93 all corroborate that reported earnings are real cash, not accounting fiction.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Magnitude and duration of Stelara biosimilar revenue cliff and offsetting growth from Darzalex, Tremfya, Carvykti
- Remaining talc litigation reserve adequacy and any going-forward cash settlement schedule
- Pipeline depth in Innovative Medicine and MedTech post-Kenvue spin
- Composition of 2025 net income (one-time items vs underlying), to confirm 27.2% OpM is repeatable
- Debt maturity ladder against the 27.8B net debt position
Composite FV lands at $193.25 and the signal-adjusted FV at $185.90 against a $231.29 price, implying roughly -20% downside to deserved value. Even the most generous method here, DCF at $225.29, still sits below the tape, while the anchored P/E of $214.03 and an EPV floor of $108.40 bracket a deserved range of roughly $185-$215. The market is paying a full premium for a Fortress-quality franchise that it already understands well; there is no hidden gap. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted - if anything that supports the upper end of the deserved range near $215. But Stelara LOE in 2025, biosimilar pressure, and a lingering talc tail argue against stretching the multiple further. To justify $231 you need pipeline conversion (oncology/immunology) plus MedTech acceleration to land cleanly - a reasonable base case but not a discounted one. Bottom line: a great business at a fair-to-full price. The quality grade raises deserved value, but it does not create cheapness. I want a real discount to the composite before this is interesting on valuation alone.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 2025 guidance quantifying Stelara biosimilar erosion and offsetting growth from Tremfya, Darzalex, Carvykti
- MedTech organic growth trajectory post-Shockwave integration
- Talc settlement final cash outlay and timing
- Net debt and capital allocation after recent M and A - effect on per-share deserved value
- R and D productivity: late-stage oncology/immunology readouts that could re-rate the pipeline
JNJ sits in the calmest corner of the tape: beta 0.26 means the neutral-to-slightly-cautious regime (VIX 17, 10y 4.51%) lands as background noise, not pressure. The narrative is a durable but moderate-intensity steady-compounder story with low cult coefficient - nobody is euphoric, nobody is panicking. That insulates the name but also denies it any sentiment lift while AI/momentum cohorts soak up flows elsewhere. News flow is constructive but low-voltage: a $1B+ Jacksonville Vision expansion and inclusion in O'Leary's quality-dividend ETF reinforce the fortress image without moving hearts. The competing pharma headlines (AbbVie buying Apogee, Merck's post-Keytruda pipeline) implicitly remind the market that JNJ's own Stelara LOE answer is less crisp - a soft narrative headwind within the sector. Analyst tone is mildly supportive (Buy consensus, target $251 vs $231, ~9% upside) but zero revisions this month signals indifference, not conviction. Backward-looking Buys against a flat narrative is classic late-cycle stasis - no divergence to exploit either way. Net: pressure is genuinely balanced, with a slight defensive tailwind from the macro setup offset by a quietly fading relative-pharma story.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Stelara biosimilar erosion pace in next earnings - any positive surprise would re-rate the narrative
- Oncology pipeline readouts (Rybrevant, Talvey) that could give the story a real pharma-innovation hook
- Whether a true risk-off shift (VIX > 22) triggers defensive rotation flows into JNJ
- Analyst target revisions - the 0-revision month is the clearest sign of sentiment stasis to watch break
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.7B | $80.0B | $85.2B | $88.8B | $94.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $23.4B | $24.6B | $26.6B | $27.5B | $25.6B |
| Gross Profit | $55.3B | $55.4B | $58.6B | $61.4B | $68.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $34.4B | $34.4B | $35.2B | $39.2B | $43.0B |
| Operating Income | $20.9B | $21.0B | $23.4B | $22.1B | $25.6B |
| Net Income | $20.9B | $17.9B | $35.2B | $14.1B | $26.8B |
| EBITDA | $26.8B | $26.6B | $23.3B | $24.8B | $41.1B |
| EPS | $7.93 | $6.83 | $13.88 | $5.84 | $11.03 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $14.5B | $12.9B | $21.9B | $24.1B | $19.7B |
| Total Current Assets | $61.0B | $55.3B | $53.5B | $55.9B | $55.6B |
| Total Assets | $182.0B | $187.4B | $167.6B | $180.1B | $199.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $45.2B | $55.8B | $46.3B | $50.3B | $54.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $30.0B | $26.9B | $25.9B | $30.7B | $39.4B |
| Total Liabilities | $108.0B | $110.6B | $98.8B | $108.6B | $117.7B |
| Total Equity | $74.0B | $76.8B | $68.8B | $71.5B | $81.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $123.1B | $128.3B | $153.8B | $155.8B | $169.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $23.4B | $21.2B | $22.8B | $24.3B | $24.5B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$3.7B | -$4.0B | -$4.5B | -$4.4B | -$4.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.8B | $17.2B | $18.2B | $19.8B | $19.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$60.0M | -$17.7B | $358.0M | -$15.1B | -$17.5B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$3.5B | -$6.0B | -$5.1B | -$2.4B | -$6.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | $502.0M | -$360.0M | $7.7B | $2.2B | -$4.4B |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$107.7B $104.6B – $109.4B
|
$115.0B $114.9B – $115.1B
|
$121.7B $118.4B – $123.7B
|
$131.8B $128.2B – $134.0B
|
| EBITDA |
$35.8B $34.8B – $36.3B
|
$38.2B $38.2B – $38.2B
|
$40.4B $39.3B – $41.1B
|
$43.8B $42.6B – $44.5B
|
| Net Income |
$31.4B $29.7B – $33.1B
|
$32.6B $26.2B – $38.9B
|
$37.8B $36.5B – $38.6B
|
$42.5B $41.0B – $43.4B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +1.6% | +6.5% | +4.3% | +6.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +0.1% | +5.8% | +4.7% | +11.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +0.3% | +11.4% | -5.4% | +15.6% |
| Net Income Growth | -14.1% | +95.9% | -60.0% | +90.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -0.5% | -12.3% | +6.3% | +65.7% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | M-Exempt | 10,000.00 | $115.67 | $1.2M |
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | S-Sale | 10,000.00 | $241.15 | $2.4M |
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | M-Exempt | 10,000.00 | $115.67 | $1.2M |
| 2026-06-09 | Woods Eugene A. | A-Award | 161.09 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pinto Daniel E | A-Award | 134.24 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-09 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | A-Award | 214.79 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | M-Exempt | 25,255.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | F-InKind | 11,002.00 | $229.85 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | M-Exempt | 25,255.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Woods Eugene A. | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | West Nadja | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | WEINBERGER MARK A | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Pinto Daniel E | A-Award | 1,712.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | MORIKIS JOHN G | A-Award | 1,540.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | McClellan Mark B. | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Joly Hubert | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Johnson Paula A | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Doudna Jennifer A | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beckerle Mary C | A-Award | 975.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 6:39pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | $1.34 | 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-26 | 2026-06-09 |
| 2026-02-24 | $1.30 | 2026-01-02 | 2026-02-24 | 2026-03-10 |
| 2025-11-25 | $1.30 | 2025-10-14 | 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-09 |
| 2025-08-26 | $1.30 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-08-26 | 2025-09-09 |
| 2025-05-27 | $1.30 | 2025-04-15 | 2025-05-27 | 2025-06-10 |
| 2025-02-18 | $1.24 | 2025-01-02 | 2025-02-18 | 2025-03-04 |
| 2024-11-26 | $1.24 | 2024-10-15 | 2024-11-26 | 2024-12-10 |
| 2024-08-27 | $1.24 | 2024-07-17 | 2024-08-27 | 2024-09-10 |
| 2024-05-20 | $1.24 | 2024-04-16 | 2024-05-21 | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-02-16 | $1.19 | 2024-01-02 | 2024-02-20 | 2024-03-05 |
| 2023-11-20 | $1.19 | 2023-10-19 | 2023-11-21 | 2023-12-05 |
| 2023-08-25 | $1.19 | 2023-07-20 | 2023-08-28 | 2023-09-07 |
| 2023-05-22 | $1.19 | 2023-04-18 | 2023-05-23 | 2023-06-06 |
| 2023-02-17 | $1.13 | 2023-01-03 | 2023-02-21 | 2023-03-07 |
| 2022-11-21 | $1.13 | 2022-10-19 | 2022-11-22 | 2022-12-06 |
| 2022-08-22 | $1.13 | 2022-07-18 | 2022-08-23 | 2022-09-06 |
| 2022-05-23 | $1.13 | 2022-04-19 | 2022-05-24 | 2022-06-07 |
| 2022-02-18 | $1.06 | 2022-01-04 | 2022-02-22 | 2022-03-08 |
| 2021-11-22 | $1.06 | 2021-10-21 | 2021-11-23 | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-08-23 | $1.06 | 2021-07-19 | 2021-08-24 | 2021-09-07 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Starting with the raw tape: JNJ printed $94.2B revenue in FY25 vs $88.8B in FY24, a 6.1% lift — respectable for a $557B mega-cap pharma post-Kenvue but hardly the "innovation acceleration" story. The quarterly cadence is more telling: revenue went $22.5B → $21.9B → $23.7B → $24.0B → $24.6B → $24.1B. The Q1'25 net income of $11.0B at a 50.2% margin is a one-off (likely a litigation reserve release or tax/divestiture item — no operating leverage produces a 50% margin in this business), and conversely Q3'24's 12% margin reflects talc charges. Strip those and the underlying net margin sits in a 20–23% band, which is fine but not expanding. FY25 reported NI of $26.8B vs $14.1B in FY24 is flattered by these same items; the $25.6B operating income is the cleaner number, up ~15.6% YoY — better, but the earnings_cagr of -12.7% over five years tells you GAAP earnings have actually gone backwards through the Kenvue transition and litigation cycle.
On valuation, the synthesis pegs fair value at $186-$193 vs $231 — a 20% premium. I largely agree with the direction but think the synthesis is slightly too harsh. $19.7B FCF on a $557B cap is a 3.5% FCF yield; add the 2.46% dividend (covered ~2x by FCF) and you have a real-yield asset, but at 17.6x EV/EBITDA and 26.9x TTM P/E, you're paying a growth multiple for a 5% top-line grower facing the Stelara biosimilar cliff (Stelara was ~$10B in peak sales, biosimilars launched in 2025). The Market Forces note calling this a "value trap" is too cute — JNJ isn't a value trap, it's just fully priced quality. The Narrative layer's framing — "+24% premium is almost entirely narrative" — is the most honest read in the pack.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: pipeline optionality is genuinely under-discussed. Carvykti (CAR-T), Tremfya expansion into IBD, and the Shockwave/Abiomed medtech acquisitions give JNJ legitimate $5B+ assets that could offset Stelara erosion by 2027. The Q4'25 → Q1'26 sequential ($24.6B → $24.1B) deceleration could be Stelara biosimilar bleed showing up exactly on schedule — which would be bearish — OR it's seasonal (Q1 historically softens). Insider activity is uninformative: small awards and exempted exercises, no conviction buying or aggressive selling. The decelerating quarterly trend flagged in Revenue Confidence is real but modest; we're talking 6.1% YoY recent vs 5.2% five-year CAGR, hardly collapse.
I dissent mildly with the synthesis composite of $186 — that anchors too heavily on DCF with conservative terminal assumptions and undervalues the medtech segment's growth (Shockwave is growing 20%+). But I dissent more strongly with the bull case implied by the current $231 price, which requires Stelara replacement to land cleanly AND margin expansion AND multiple maintenance. My fair value sits at $195–$210: roughly 22-23x normalized $9 EPS (stripping the litigation noise from FY25), or ~21x FCF, which is a reasonable but not generous multiple for a 5-6% grower with a fortress balance sheet ($19.7B cash, undisclosed but manageable debt against $25B operating cash flow). At $231 you're paying 11–18% above that. The Reasonable Premium thesis verdict implies the market's 16.6% FCF growth assumption is achievable — I think that's a stretch; mid-to-high single digits is more realistic given the biosimilar mathematics. Holders should not sell quality; new money should wait for sub-$210, which historically happens once or twice a year on litigation headlines or biosimilar share-loss prints.
GPT Critique
Looking at the raw data for Johnson & Johnson, a few key figures stand out to me. The company achieved $94.19 billion in revenue for FY25, a 6.1% increase from FY24's $88.82 billion, which is decent for a company of its size but not indicative of rapid innovation or growth acceleration. The net margins have largely fluctuated due to one-offs like litigation reserves, evident from the Q1'25 net income of $11 billion at a 50.2% margin — clearly an anomaly. The consistent revenue growth trend is moderate, with recent quarterly revenues hovering around $24 billion, indicating stable but unspectacular performance. Despite a positive free cash flow of $19.7 billion, the P/E ratio of 26.88 suggests the company is priced for growth that isn't fully supported by its historical earnings trajectory, especially with an earnings CAGR of -12.7% over the past five years.
Opus argues that JNJ is "fully priced, not broken" with a fair value of $195–$210. I agree with this general assessment but find the reasoning more nuanced. The claim that JNJ is not a value trap but rather a "fully priced quality" stock resonates with me. The company's FCF yield and dividend coverage indeed provide a defensive play, yet the premium valuation metrics (17.6x EV/EBITDA and 26.9x P/E) seem high for a company with a top-line growth of about 5%. I concur with Opus that the market might be overestimating JNJ's ability to seamlessly replace Stelara's revenue amid biosimilar competition without significant margin erosion.
Where I diverge from Opus is in their estimation of the synthesis composite fair value at $186. I view this as slightly pessimistic given the company's robust cash flows and medtech growth potential, particularly from assets like Shockwave, which is growing at over 20%. However, I also question Opus's upper fair value range of $210 — I would anchor closer to $200, aligning with a reasonable multiple of JNJ's core earnings and cash flow generation capacity, while accounting for the uncertainties and competitive pressures in the pharma sector.
A skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the potential impact of JNJ's litigation issues and overestimating the medtech segment's ability to compensate for the Stelara cliff. They might also point out that any significant macroeconomic downturn could affect healthcare spending and further compress JNJ's margins. Additionally, the narrative premium attributed to JNJ's post-Kenvue strategy could be overly optimistic given the historical challenges in rapidly transforming large, established pharma companies.