Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$344.71
6-month call
Neutral -2.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$336.00
Great value below
$265.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-2.5% to $336.00
Predicted High
$348.00
at 4 months
Predicted Low
$332.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:08 am
Neutral
JPM trends range-bound to
$336.00
(-2.5% from $344.71)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisJPM trades well above composite fair value ($248) with a stressed tape and fading rate-cut narrative, so near-term drift is modestly lower; the Oct earnings print (3-for-3 beats) likely stabilizes and lifts the stock into year-end before value gravity reasserts modestly into January.
Invalidated ifA clean earnings beat driving JPM above $360, or conversely a break below $310 on credit stress, would falsify this range-bound path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $344.71 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $344.71 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $328.87–$360.55 typical range · internal point $340.00 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Stress regime and risk-off tape weigh near term |
| What actually happened: closed $365.18 on Aug 12, 2026 = +5.9% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±4.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $321.75–$367.67 typical range · internal point $335.50 | — | ±6.7% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag continues, low-beta cushions downside |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $332.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings drift with valuation overhang |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $345.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings beat likely, fortress balance sheet reassures |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $348.00 | — | +1.0% | 4/10 | Post-earnings relief, seasonal bank strength |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $342.00 | — | -0.8% | 3/10 | Year-end profit-taking, value gap remains wide |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $336.00 | — | -2.5% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward fair value, mild fade |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $333.86 (-3.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $344.71 |
| Composite fair value | $248.27 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $248.27 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $265.00 |
| Value net score | -85 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.5% 3m 23.1% 6m 23.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.28 3m 0.38 5m 0.59 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 14.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JPM-20260730-001020-2246 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JPM-20260730-005820-2dab |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JPM-20260730-005820-2dab |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JPM-20260730-005820-2dab |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-JPM-20260730-005820-2dab |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JPM-20260730-001020-2246 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | JPM-20260730-001020-2246 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $344.71 | $336.00 | -2.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $333.45 | $338.86 | +1.6% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.