Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$102.81
6-month call
Bear -11.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$91.50
Great value below
$75.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.0% to $91.50
Predicted High
$104.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$91.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
KKR trends lower to
$91.50
(-11.0% from $102.81)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisKKR trades at a massive premium to composite fair value ($36.57) with negative value and sentiment lenses, but a risk-on regime and strong earnings track record limit near-term downside. Expect gradual mean-reversion pressure over 6 months with the deterministic baseline ($91.27) as a reasonable anchor, not the extreme bear case.
Invalidated ifA break above $115 on strong volume or a beat-and-raise catalyst that reaffirms platform premium would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $102.81 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $102.81 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $95.83–$109.79 typical range · internal point $103.50 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports near-term drift higher |
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $92.70–$112.92 typical range · internal point $104.20 | — | ±9.8% | 5/10 | Momentum carries into September, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $101.50 | — | -1.3% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins to pull, sentiment weak |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -4.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, forensic concerns weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $95.50 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, alt-manager rerating pressure |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $93.00 | — | -9.5% | 4/10 | January rebalance amplifies value-convergence drift |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $91.50 | — | -11.0% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $91.27 (-11.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $102.81 |
| Composite fair value | $36.57 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $31.23 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $36.57 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $75.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +18 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.0% 3m 34.1% 6m 39.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.38 3m 1.28 5m 1.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | KKR-20260810-000802-7d7d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-KKR-20260810-004545-1a79 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-KKR-20260810-004545-1a79 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-KKR-20260810-004545-1a79 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-KKR-20260810-004545-1a79 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | KKR-20260810-000802-7d7d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | KKR-20260810-000802-7d7d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $102.81 | $91.50 | -11.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.