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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 10, 2026
13 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 10, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 9 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -32 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 18 · Value -73 · Sentiment -32 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $65.82 vs $102.81 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

KKR & Co. Inc.

KKR NYSE
Financial Services · Asset Management
New York, NY 10001, United States kkr.com Updated Aug 10, 12:28am
Price
$102.81
Market Cap
$92.3B
Employees
5,043
Beta
1.79
Avg Volume
4,280,053
Last Dividend
$0.75
CEO
Mr. Joseph Y. Bae

KKR & Co. Inc. is a global investment firm that provides alternative asset management, capital markets, and insurance solutions. Its core business spans private equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate, and liquid strategies, serving a wide range of institutional and individual clients through actively managed investment platforms. The firm also operates an insurance business that offers retirement, life insurance, and reinsurance solutions across individual and institutional markets. KKR & Co. Inc. plays a significant role in private markets by deploying capital, managing portfolios, and structuring investment and financing solutions for companies and assets across multiple sectors worldwide. Headquartered in New York, the company is recognized for its diversified platform that combines asset management expertise with insurance capabilities.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 10, 2026 12:19am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$102.81
as of Aug 10, 12:19am (13d ago)
Change · Aug 10
-0.54 (-0.52%)
Day Range
$102.28 – $104.92
52-Week Range
$82.67 – $152.10
50-Day MA
$97.03
200-Day MA
$106.80
Volume
7,048,600.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 13d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 889,413,785.00
Float 690,156,790.00
Free Float 77.6%
Normal free float — 77.6% of shares trade freely, ~22.4% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:34am (13d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 8:28pm (14d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 10, 2026 12:17am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
43.94
Stock Price: $102.81
EPS (Diluted): 2.34
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.28
Stock Price: $102.81
Total Equity: $81.63B
Shares: 1,013,018,376
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
17.87
Market Cap: $92.30B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $17.15B
EBITDA: $4.21B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$75.1B
Market Cap: $92.30B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $17.15B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
18.0%
Gross Profit: $3.46B
Revenue: $19.21B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
2.6%
Operating Income: $490.20M
Revenue: $19.21B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
12.3%
Net Income: $2.37B
Revenue: $19.21B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
2.9%
Net Income: $2.37B
Total Equity: $81.63B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.7%
Operating Income: $490.20M
Tax Rate: 13.4%
Equity: $81.63B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $17.15B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $81.63B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$18.96
Revenue: $19.21B
Shares: 1,013,018,376
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$80.58
Total Equity: $81.63B
Shares: 1,013,018,376
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.47
Operating CF: $477.76M
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 1,013,018,376
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.7%
Last Dividend: $0.75
Stock Price: $102.81
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $2.37B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 10, 2026 12:17am
Compares KKR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 8:28pm (14d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $16.1B $5.6B $14.3B $21.6B $19.2B
Cost of Revenue $9.2B $3.6B $9.5B $17.8B $15.8B
Gross Profit $6.9B $2.0B $4.9B $3.8B $3.5B
Operating Expenses $1.9B $2.4B $2.7B $2.9B $3.0B
Operating Income $5.0B -$345.6M $2.1B $926.2M $490.2M
Net Income $4.7B -$521.7M $3.7B $3.1B $2.4B
EBITDA $7.7B $2.5B $5.6B $5.7B $4.2B
EPS $7.95 $-0.79 $4.24 $3.47 $2.51
EPS (Diluted) $7.42 $-0.79 $4.09 $3.28 $2.34
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:32am (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $10.5B $13.4B $20.8B $15.4B $17.2B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $275.3B $317.3B $360.1B $410.1B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt $36.9B
Total Liabilities $220.0B $258.9B $298.1B $328.5B
Total Equity $58.2B $55.4B $58.4B $62.0B $81.6B
Retained Earnings $7.7B $6.7B $9.8B $12.3B $13.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 8:28pm (14d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$7.2B -$5.3B -$1.5B $6.6B $477.8M
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net) -$473.8M $0 $0 -$146.3M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $8.9B $6.5B $3.6B $3.5B $2.0B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$269.7M -$346.7M -$289.8M $0 -$3.4M
Net Change in Cash $3.5B $2.9B $7.4B -$5.4B $1.8B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 8:28pm (14d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -65.4% +157.4% +51.1% -11.2%
Gross Profit Growth -70.9% +142.2% -21.0% -10.0%
Operating Income Growth -107.0% +718.7% -56.7% -47.1%
Net Income Growth -111.0% +815.5% -17.6% -22.9%
EBITDA Growth -66.8% +119.0% +2.4% -26.2%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:32am (17d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-15 $0.20
2026-02-17 $0.19
2025-11-17 $0.19
2025-08-11 $0.19
2025-05-12 $0.19
2025-02-14 $0.18
2024-11-04 $0.18
2024-08-12 $0.18
2024-05-10 $0.18
2024-02-15 $0.17
2023-11-16 $0.17
2023-08-16 $0.17
2023-05-19 $0.17
2023-02-16 $0.16
2022-11-10 $0.16
2022-08-12 $0.16
2022-05-13 $0.16
2022-02-17 $0.15
2021-11-12 $0.15
2021-08-13 $0.15
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 09:01
-0.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 49% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 72%. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($102.81)
Bull — recovery +30% 17.2% $52.73 -49%
Base — stabilizes +20% 15.0% $35.60 -65%
Bear — keeps slipping +10% 12.7% $23.47 -77%
Stress — last quarter repeats +13% 15.0% $28.93 -72%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at 12.5% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +22.5% · net income +241.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue +12.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KKR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-10 00:33:22
Verdict Fairly valued near $102 with cycle risk skewing downside — synthesis's $31-37 fair value is a GAAP-artifact error; real fair value band $85-110, wait for $80 for margin of safety.

Looking at the raw numbers first: KKR's TTM revenue is roughly $20.9B ($5.73+$4.32+$5.74+$5.53+... wait, four most recent quarters sum to $21.32B), with TTM net income around $3.16B. That's a ~15% net margin on the trailing basis — hardly the "collapsing margins" the Market Forces model claims. The 2026 Q1 dip to $4.32B/9.4% margin is a mark-to-market artifact typical of alt managers (unrealized carry swings), not operational deterioration. Annual revenue trajectory 2022→2025 ($5.57B → $14.32B → $21.64B → $19.21B) shows exactly the lumpiness you expect from a firm where GAAP revenue includes principal investment gains; using it for CAGR math is nearly meaningless. Book equity of $81.63B against a $92.3B market cap gives P/B of ~1.13 — that's not a bubble multiple for a franchise generating $2-3B in annual net income even in a soft year, implying mid-teens ROE on the fee-related earnings stream once you strip out the balance-sheet noise.

The synthesis verdict of $36.57 fair value (a 65% haircut) is almost certainly wrong, and I'll say so directly. A DCF built on GAAP operating cash flow of $478M for a firm like KKR is a category error — alt managers report OCF net of investment activity that belongs in "investing" for any other business. Blackstone, Apollo, Ares all trade at 20-30x fee-related earnings; KKR at ~$100 implies roughly 20-25x FRE which is in-line, not extreme. The Narrative Economics layer calling this "229% premium to DCF" is anchoring on a broken denominator. The market forces claim of "unprecedented insider selling" is also suspect — ten identical 67,214-share "J-Other" transactions on the same day with unknown filer looks like a single administrative entry (fund distribution, unit conversion, or 10b5-1 grant vesting) replicated, not ten insiders dumping.

Where the bears have a real point: the carry cycle. KKR's earnings quality genuinely depends on exit markets staying open, and 2022 (NI -$522M) shows how fast the P&L flips when marks turn. Recent YoY revenue -11.2% and earnings -22.9% are real, and they're happening while the S&P is near highs — that's a concerning divergence. The Global Atlantic insurance leg adds duration risk and credit exposure that's opaque in this data (no debt figure disclosed is itself a red flag for an insurance-owning entity — total liabilities must be enormous). If private credit spreads compress and LBO exit multiples normalize toward historical means, FRE growth stalls and realized carry evaporates simultaneously. The bear thesis weight of 78 on "embedded carry assumes exit market remains open" is the one line in the prior models worth taking seriously.

Contrarian read on the contrarians: everyone (synthesis, market forces, narrative) is piling on at $102 after a 32% drawdown from highs. That's often when the risk/reward inverts. Peers trade at similar or higher multiples on cleaner-adjusted earnings. The $31-37 fair value range would imply KKR is worth less than 1.0x book — that only happens if you believe the fee business is impaired AND Global Atlantic is under-reserved, neither of which is evidenced here. My independent read: KKR is fairly valued to modestly rich at $102, not catastrophically overvalued. Fair value band $85-110 depending on your carry realization assumptions over 2026-2028. I'd want to see it at $80 for a real margin of safety given cycle risk, but calling it a 70% short is analytical malpractice. I partially dissent from the synthesis: direction is closer to fairly-valued-to-slightly-rich, not deeply overvalued. Conviction is moderate — the carry cycle risk is real, but the models have overreacted to GAAP noise and misread the insider filing.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-10 00:33:37
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly overvalued at $102.81 — the franchise merits a premium to book, but current pricing already assumes recovery; I’d see better risk/reward below $90.

The raw numbers do not support the most bearish machine read. KKR is not a “wounded franchise”; it is a high-variance alternative asset manager whose reported GAAP revenue and earnings are noisy because realizations and marks swamp the steadier fee engine. You can see that in the quarter-to-quarter swings: revenue moved from $3.11B with a $185.9M loss in 1Q25 to $5.09B and $510.1M of profit in 2Q25, then to $5.53B/$900.4M and $5.74B/$1.15B in the back half, before landing at $5.73B and $700.5M in the latest quarter. That is not a clean “collapse”; it is cyclical earnings power with a wide band. The annual series tells the same story. 2025 revenue fell to $19.21B from $21.64B in 2024, and net income fell to $2.37B from $3.08B, but both remain well above 2022 trough conditions, while recent quarterly revenue has re-accelerated sharply from early 2025 levels. The market is paying for normalized earnings capacity, not last year’s compressed operating line.

What stands out most is that the canonical valuation ratios look terrible only if you take them literally. A 43.9x P/E, 17.9x EV/EBITDA, 2.9% ROE, and 2.6% operating margin would describe a weak financial company if these were stable manufacturing-style metrics. They are not. KKR ended 2025 with $81.63B of equity and $17.15B of cash, and trades at just 1.28x book. For a scaled alternatives platform with embedded carry and insurance optionality, price-to-book is more informative than one-year P/E on depressed realizations. At a $92.3B market cap, investors are paying roughly $10.7B over book equity for the franchise. That premium is meaningful, but not absurd if the firm can compound fee-related earnings and monetize investments across cycles. The latest four quarters generated about $3.16B of net income, implying a trailing earnings yield around 3.4%; not cheap, but also not remotely consistent with the idea fair value is only $31. A stock at $31 would imply a market cap near $28B, or roughly 0.34x equity, which makes no sense for a profitable global manager with this scale and liquidity.

My read is that KKR deserves a premium, but not a heroic one. The business has become more resilient than classic private-equity managers because the earnings base is broader, yet the 2025 annual figures show exactly why the stock should not be treated as a simple secular compounder. Revenue was down 11% year over year, net income down 23%, operating income nearly halved to $490.2M from $926.2M, and operating cash flow was only $477.8M despite billions of accounting earnings. That weak cash conversion is the biggest yellow flag in the dataset. If you capitalize KKR on through-cycle distributable-type earnings, $102.81 is defensible; if you anchor on reported operating earnings and cash flow, it is rich. I land in the middle: the shares are not egregiously overvalued, but they already discount a fairly smooth recovery in exits, fundraising, and fee growth. A fair range is closer to the high $80s to low $90s than to either the machine’s $31 or an aggressive bull case well above $110.

The strongest case against this view is straightforward: nearly every “hard” quality metric here is poor. 2025 ROIC was just 0.66%, ROA 0.58%, net margin 12.3%, and operating margin 2.55%; recent annual earnings are below 2023 and far below what a 44x multiple should tolerate. Momentum is also soft, with recent revenue down 11.2% and earnings down 22.9% year over year. If you believe private-market exits remain clogged and fee rates compress as alternatives scale, then today’s 1.28x book is not modest but dangerous, because book for an alternative manager is not as sacrosanct as a bank’s. Add the odd cluster of July insider “other” transactions and a 0.73% dividend yield, and a skeptic can argue you are owning a cyclical, opaque financial at a growth-stock multiple. I weigh that bear case less heavily because the income statement is structurally distorted for this business model, and the balance-sheet/capital base is too strong to justify a distressed multiple.

What would change my mind is not another quarter of noisy GAAP revenue, but evidence on durability. If KKR can sustain quarterly net income around $800M-$1.0B while converting that into materially better operating cash flow than the $477.8M posted for full-year 2025, then the stock can justify triple digits and more. Conversely, if the next few quarters show revenue slipping back toward the $3B-$4B zone, margins returning to low teens or single digits, and annualized earnings drifting under $2.5B without a visible cash-flow bridge, then the “premium platform” thesis breaks and I would move clearly bearish. For now, the stock looks priced for competence and normalization, not for disaster.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-10 00:34:07
Verdict Overvalued at $102.81 — fundamentals support closer to $40–55 on normalized FRE and cash conversion

The numbers on KKR tell a story of a franchise whose reported scale is decoupling from economic returns. Annual revenue fell from $21.64B in 2024 to $19.21B in 2025 while net income dropped from $3.08B to $2.37B; operating income more than halved from $926M to $490M, leaving an operating margin of just 2.55%. Trailing twelve-month earnings power is deteriorating further—recent revenue and earnings growth sit at –11.2% and –22.9% respectively—yet the stock trades at 43.9× earnings and 5.4× sales. Return metrics are abysmal for a supposed compounder: ROE of 2.9%, ROIC of 0.7%, ROA of 0.6%. Operating cash flow of only $478M against $2.37B of reported net income signals that a large portion of “earnings” is mark-to-market or non-cash, not fee cash that can be distributed or reinvested. The $17B cash pile and near-zero reported leverage look comforting until one remembers that alternative-asset balance sheets are opaque and insurance float (the Global Atlantic piece) embeds duration and credit risk that does not appear in the simple debt-to-equity ratio of zero. At $102.81 the market is capitalizing a narrative of perpetual AUM compounding; the income statement is capitalizing something closer to a cyclical peak already rolling over.

Quarterly volatility reinforces the same picture. Revenue swung from $3.11B (Q1 2025, with a $186M loss) to $5.74B then back toward $4–5.7B, with net margins oscillating between –6% and 20%. That pattern is classic carry-realization noise, not the smooth fee-earnings trajectory a 44× multiple requires. Five-year earnings CAGR is already –20%, even as revenue CAGR prints a misleading +15.8% that is almost entirely a 2022 trough rebound. Book value of $81.6B supports a modest 1.28× P/B, which would be reasonable for a mature asset manager if ROE were mid-teens; at sub-3% ROE the multiple is still rich. Dividend yield of 0.73% offers no valuation floor.

The strongest counter-argument is that KKR is being valued as a secular alternatives platform, not on trailing GAAP. Believers will note that fee-related earnings and management fees on sticky AUM are understated in the volatile NI line, that insurance distribution creates a captive capital flywheel, and that private-market share gains versus public equities remain intact. They will point to the $92B market cap as cheap relative to the multi-trillion addressable pool of institutional capital still rotating into PE, credit and infrastructure, and will dismiss the $31–36 composite fair-value estimate as an artifact of applying industrial DCF math to a carry-heavy model. That case is coherent but requires uninterrupted exit markets, stable fee rates at scale, and 12–15% AUM growth for a decade—assumptions already strained by the observed revenue contraction and margin collapse. I weigh the hard income and cash-flow deterioration more heavily than the story because the story has already been fully paid for at 44×.

What would flip the view is a clear re-acceleration of fee-earning AUM growth above 12% with FRE margins expanding back toward mid-teens, accompanied by operating cash flow converting at least 70% of reported NI for two consecutive years, or a sustained drop in the shares toward the mid-$50s where the multiple would compress into the mid-20s on normalized earnings.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 3.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -2.7 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-10 00:52:32
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Elite alternatives franchise trading rich with ~12% annual dilution and a fading narrative — a name to own lower, not here.
The cruxWhether you can get KKR at a price that respects the ~12% annual share-count leak; the platform is real, the entry price is not.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KKR's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+18
Solid
edge √Σ 113 · risk √Σ 95 · conf 6/10

KKR sits on $17.15B of liquid cash with net-cash of the same amount (18.6% of market cap) and is self-funding at $477.8M FCF. As one of the world's top-tier alternative asset managers, it enjoys long-duration fee streams from committed capital, and OCF/NI of 2.11x with modest accruals (0.7% of assets) suggests reported earnings are cash-backed. Altman Z of 0.27 flagging distress is a model artifact - Z-scores are unreliable for asset managers whose balance sheets carry large investment assets and consolidated fund liabilities. Revenue trajectory is lumpy ($16.1B to $5.6B to $14.3B to $21.6B to $19.2B) reflecting mark-to-market and realization-driven carry income rather than operational fragility. Management fees provide the durable base; performance income drives the swings. The core franchise - LP relationships, brand, deal flow - remains elite. However, diluted shares have grown from 637.8M (2021) to 1.01B (2025), a 12.3% CAGR, while buybacks recover only 27.2% of SBC. The business is compounding, but the equity base is compounding faster in places, which meaningfully dilutes per-share value creation. Insider J-Other transfers appear to be intra-entity movements among KKR holding entities and founders Kravis/Roberts, not open-market sales - the flagged '$6B of selling' is almost certainly reclassified structural transfers, not directional signal. That said, the absence of any P (open-market buys) is worth noting.

Strengths 3
m78
Fortress liquidity
$17.15B liquid cash, net-cash positive, 18.6% of market cap - survival risk is effectively zero and the firm can invest counter-cyclically.
m60
Cash-backed earnings
OCF/NI 2.11x and accruals only 0.7% of assets indicate reported earnings translate to cash; no aggressive accrual signals.
m55
Elite franchise in alternatives
KKR is one of a handful of scaled global alternatives platforms with sticky committed LP capital and multi-decade fee visibility.
Concerns 4
m75
Heavy share count growth
Diluted shares grew from 637.8M to 1.01B in four years (12.3% CAGR); buybacks offset only 27.2% of SBC, so per-share compounding lags business growth materially.
m45
Volatile reported profitability
Operating margin swung from 30.8% (2021) to -6.2% (2022) to 4.3% (2024) to 2.6% (2025); characteristic of carry/mark-to-market accounting but complicates trend read.
m30
Gross margin compression
GM% fell from 42.8% (2021) to 18% (2025); likely mix shift toward insurance (Global Atlantic) consolidation but warrants segment inspection.
m20
Insider tape ambiguity
All recent transactions are J-Other intra-entity transfers; no P buys in 12 months. Not directional selling but no vote of confidence either.
This is a high-quality franchise with an obvious blemish. KKR's balance sheet, cash generation, and competitive position in alternatives are top-tier - the Altman Z 'distress' flag is noise for this business model. But I can't ignore that diluted shares grew ~60% in four years while buybacks barely dented the SBC. That's a real per-share value leak that separates KKR from truly elite compounders. The insider tape looks alarming on the surface but is almost certainly structural entity reorganizations, not economic exits. Net: solidly built business, imperfect capital discipline, comfortable in the low-60s on the quality frame.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Segment breakdown of revenue/margin - how much of the GM compression is Global Atlantic insurance consolidation vs core asset management
  • Fee-related earnings (FRE) trajectory and margin, which is the true durable profitability metric for an alt manager
  • AUM and fee-paying AUM growth, dry powder, and fundraising pace
  • Nature of the J-Other transfers (Form 4 footnotes) - confirm these are structural not economic sales by Kravis/Roberts
  • SBC composition (equity awards vs partner unit conversions) and any planned de-dilution
  • Consolidated fund debt vs parent recourse debt - to explain the Altman Z distress flag
Valuation / Mispricing
-73
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 113 · conf 6/10
Price $102.81 vs composite deserved ~$37 and signal-adj ~$31 - even doubling the model to credit the platform, deserved value lands in the $60-75 range, so shares trade ~35-70% above a defensible number. attractive below $75.00

The e2e composite pins fair value at $36.57 and the signal-adjusted read at $31.23, implying roughly -70% downside from $102.81. Even granting that anchored-PE methods understate platform businesses with long-dated carry and fee-related earnings that scale with AUM, the gap is too large to dismiss - the market is capitalizing KKR as if AUM growth in the mid-teens and carry realization continue through cycles. That is a coherent bull case, but it is already the base case in the price, not an unrecognized opportunity.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Franchise quality supports a premium multiple
Top-tier alternatives platform with fortress liquidity and structural tailwinds justifies trading above a naive PE anchor - some of the gap to composite FV is legitimate, just not all of it.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Composite FV implies ~70% downside
Composite $36.57 and signal-adj $31.23 vs $102.81 price. Even if anchored-PE is too harsh for a platform with growing fee-related earnings, the shortfall is severe enough that any reasonable adjustment still leaves the stock above deserved.
m60
Priced for perpetual AUM compounding
At ~$92B market cap the tape is discounting 15%+ AUM growth and steady carry through cycles; private credit spread compression or LBO multiple normalization would shrink fee pools materially and the multiple would rerate.
m55
Per-share dilution eats the platform premium
Diluted shares grew ~60% in four years (~12% annual). SBC-driven dilution is a real leak that lowers deserved per-share value even as enterprise value grows - the market is not pricing this drag.
m35
No margin of safety at cyclical peak conditions
Carry realizations and fund marks benefit from a bull-market backdrop; buying a cyclically-sensitive alt manager at 3x fair value offers zero cushion for a normal credit or exit cycle downturn.
I do not buy the -70% downside literally - anchored-PE clearly under-credits a scaled alternatives platform with growing fee-related earnings. But I also cannot pretend $102.81 is a bargain when even a generous adjustment lands deserved value in the $60-75 zone. This is a great franchise the market already knows is great, layered with ~12% annual dilution that quietly taxes shareholders. I want it at least 25-30% lower before the risk/reward tilts my way; today it is rich, not catastrophic.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Fee-related earnings growth vs total earnings (isolate carry cyclicality)
  • Net new AUM inflows by strategy and fundraising cadence
  • Realized carry vs unrealized in recent quarters
  • Buyback pace vs SBC to gauge net dilution trajectory
  • Sensitivity of insurance/Global Atlantic spread income to rate/credit moves
General Sentiment
-32
Headwind
tail √Σ 51 · head √Σ 84 · conf 6/10

The macro backdrop is nominally supportive - VIX 14.9, S&P at highs, a mild risk-on regime - which should be a tailwind for a beta-1.79 alt-asset manager that lives on animal spirits, deal flow, and carry realization. That is the one thing keeping this from being an outright Strong Headwind. But the tape is not landing here: KKR is down 11.2% recently against its own 15.8% long-term CAGR and has underperformed by 13.7pp over three years, telling you the narrative-intensity is fading even as broad risk assets sit near highs. That is a specific sentiment problem, not a market problem. The platform-monopoly story is still 'strong intensity, moderate durability, medium cult' - but with price at $102 versus a DCF anchor near $31, any wobble in the AUM-compounding thesis gets punished disproportionately, and the recent drawdown suggests marginal holders are starting to question the perpetual-growth assumption. 10y at 4.69% is a direct headwind to a levered, carry-dependent, long-duration cash flow story; financials were softer into Friday's close; and there is no fresh bullish catalyst in the news beyond a small Crowe advisory investment. Net: narrative fatigue plus rate pressure outweigh a friendly VIX for this specific name.

Tailwinds 2
m45
Risk-on tape, low VIX
VIX 14.9 and S&P at highs is the friendliest backdrop a high-beta alt manager could ask for - it caps how bad sentiment gets and gives the platform story room to reassert if a catalyst arrives.
m25
Story still has cult and intensity
Archetype remains 'platform-monopoly' with strong intensity and medium cult coefficient - the believer base has not capitulated, which puts a floor under sentiment even as momentum rolls.
Headwinds 3
m55
Narrative losing intensity in price
Down 11.2% recently and 13.7pp of 3-year underperformance while the tape sits near highs signals the platform-monopoly story is fading at the margin - a real, persistent press on a name priced almost entirely on belief.
m50
Rates hostile to carry/AUM story
10y at 4.69% and market PE 26 are direct pressure on levered LBO economics and private credit spreads - the exact mechanism the bear case flags, and this name's 1.79 beta amplifies it.
m40
Financials sector tone soft
NYSE Financial Index down into the Friday close with no offsetting positive flow specific to alts - not decisive, but a mild ongoing crosswind for the group.
Net headwind, but not a strong one. The macro tape is genuinely friendly and the cult narrative is not broken - it is fading. What tells me the pressure is negative is that KKR is bleeding relative to a market at highs; that only happens when marginal holders are quietly repricing the perpetual-AUM-compounding story against a 4.69% 10y. A risk-on VIX keeps this from being ugly, but I would not lean into KKR here on sentiment alone - I would wait for either the drawdown to base or the narrative to get a fresh catalyst.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the recent 11% drawdown continues or bases - a lower low would confirm narrative breakdown
  • Any Q2/Q3 print or capital-markets day that re-anchors AUM growth guidance
  • Private credit spread behavior and LBO deal announcements - the visible plumbing behind the story
  • Analyst target revisions - platform-monopoly names crack when sell-side starts trimming
  • 10y yield direction - a break back under 4.25% would relieve real pressure on this name
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -11.0% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 10, 2026, KKR was $102.81. We expect it to be $91.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $75.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 10, 2026.

Price when predicted$102.81
Our estimate for Feb 2027$91.50-11.0%
Great value below$75.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06