LEVI
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Levi Strauss & Co. Class A Common Stock
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Made on
Jun 10, 2026
Price at call
$23.57
6-month call
Bear -10.1%
Target by Dec 2026
$21.19
Great value below
$16.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jun 10, 2026 3:08 am
Bear
LEVI trends lower to
$21.19
(-10.1% from $23.57)
by Dec 2026.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $23.57 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jun 10, 2026 | — | $23.57 at call | — |
| M1 | Jul 10, 2026 | $23.17 | — | -1.7% |
| What actually happened: closed $24.31 on Jul 10, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · S&P +4.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Aug 10, 2026 | $22.78 | — | -3.4% |
| What actually happened: closed $24.41 on Aug 7, 2026 = +3.6% vs the call (predicted -3.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.9 pp · accuracy 7/10 · S&P +6.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M3 | Sep 10, 2026 | $22.38 | — | -5.0% |
| What actually happened: closed $20.35 on Sep 9, 2026 = -13.7% vs the call (predicted -5.1%) · direction HIT (called down, was down) · off by 8.6 pp · accuracy 7/10 · S&P +5.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M4 | Oct 10, 2026 | $21.99 | — | -6.7% |
| What actually happened: closed $18.70 on Oct 9, 2026 = -20.7% vs the call (predicted -6.7%) · direction HIT (called down, was down) · off by 14.0 pp · accuracy 5/10 · S&P +7.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M5 | Nov 10, 2026 | $21.59 | — | -8.4% |
| M6 | Dec 10, 2026 | $21.19 | — | -10.1% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $10.20; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 17.8%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $23.57 |
| Composite fair value | $11.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $11.36 |
| DCF fair value | $8.02 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $18.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $16.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +28 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $9.66 |
| Quality tilt | +5.6% |
| Deserved value (used) | $10.20 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 0.50 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.1% 3m 35.4% 6m 34.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.71 3m 1.25 5m 1.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | LEVI-20260610-030001-9bb8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LEVI-20260610-030720-71fd |
ext-lens-quality |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LEVI-20260610-030720-71fd |
ext-lens-value |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LEVI-20260610-030720-71fd |
scenario-valuation |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | LEVI-20260610-030001-9bb8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jun 10, 2026 | freshest | LEVI-20260610-030001-9bb8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $23.57 | $21.19 | -10.1% | Dec 2026 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($11.36) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (5.8%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.