Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$478.38
6-month call
Neutral -4.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$455.00
Great value below
$380.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.9% to $455.00
Predicted High
$479.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$455.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:37 am
Neutral
LIN trends range-bound to
$455.00
(-4.9% from $478.38)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisLIN trades well above composite fair value but its low-beta steady-compounder profile and neutral regime resist rapid mean reversion; expect a slow, shallow drift lower over months rather than any sharp break, with sentiment cushioning near-term.
Invalidated ifA break above 495 on positive contract news, or a break below 445 on a broad defensive-sector rerating, invalidates the slow-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $478.38 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $478.38 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $456.34–$500.42 typical range · internal point $479.50 | — | ±4.6% | 7/10 | Low vol, calm tape, sentiment cushion holds near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $482.74 on Aug 14, 2026 = +0.9% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $446.44–$510.32 typical range · internal point $477.00 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Post-beat glow fades slowly in neutral regime |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $473.00 | — | -1.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting against rich multiple |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $469.00 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | No catalyst; drift toward anchored-PE zone continues |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $464.00 | — | -3.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims expensive defensives modestly |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $460.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | January reset; forward guide season pressures multiple |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $455.00 | — | -4.9% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $437.02 (-8.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $478.38 |
| Composite fair value | $270.05 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $298.09 |
| DCF fair value | $187.40 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $533.04 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $380.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +73 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.3% 3m 23.1% 6m 21.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.39 3m 0.06 5m 0.01 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LIN-20260803-000636-3264 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LIN-20260803-002617-999a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LIN-20260803-002617-999a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LIN-20260803-002617-999a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LIN-20260803-002617-999a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LIN-20260803-000636-3264 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $478.38 | $455.00 | -4.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 18, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $513.22 | $468.76 | -8.7% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.