Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$577.60
6-month call
Neutral -1.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$568.00
Great value below
$470.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-1.7% to $568.00
Predicted High
$585.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$568.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:12 am
Neutral
LMT trends range-bound to
$568.00
(-1.7% from $577.60)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisLMT sits above fair value but sentiment tailwinds from defense narrative and contract flow, plus consistent EPS beats, keep it firm near-term. Value gravity slowly reasserts over 6 months, dragging price modestly lower toward the deterministic baseline as the narrative premium fades.
Invalidated ifA close below $520 or above $625, or a major contract cancellation/geopolitical de-escalation flipping the sentiment lens negative.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $577.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $577.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $540.29–$614.91 typical range · internal point $582.50 | — | ±6.5% | 7/10 | Sentiment tailwind and low beta support near-term drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $589.15 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.5%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $523.53–$631.67 typical range · internal point $585.00 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Defense narrative and contract flow sustain modest bid |
| What actually happened: closed $525.28 on Sep 4, 2026 = -9.1% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $582.00 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Momentum plateaus as valuation pressure begins to weigh |
| What actually happened: closed $506.63 on Oct 5, 2026 = -12.3% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $576.00 | — | -0.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print window; beats priced in, mild fade |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $572.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward DCF anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $569.00 | — | -1.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims rich defensives |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $568.00 | — | -1.7% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $570.37 (-1.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $577.60 |
| Composite fair value | $465.89 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $524.62 |
| DCF fair value | $563.58 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $368.49 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $470.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +23 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.2% 3m 32.4% 6m 30.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.39 3m -0.19 5m -0.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | LMT-20260806-002519-40f8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-LMT-20260806-010225-6f42 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-LMT-20260806-010225-6f42 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-LMT-20260806-010225-6f42 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-LMT-20260806-010225-6f42 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | LMT-20260806-002519-40f8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | LMT-20260806-002519-40f8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $577.60 | $568.00 | -1.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.