Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$218.40
6-month call
Bear -6.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$204.00
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.6% to $204.00
Predicted High
$220.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$204.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:10 am
Bear
LOW trends lower to
$204.00
(-6.6% from $218.40)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisLOW is overvalued vs composite fair value ($181) with weak net value score, but low beta, risk-on tape, and steady earnings beats limit near-term downside. Expect a modest drift lower as value gravity works over months, with the housing narrative capping rallies.
Invalidated ifA break above $235 on housing-cycle upside or below $195 on macro shock would falsify this gradual mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $218.40 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $218.40 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $205.64–$231.16 typical range · internal point $219.50 | — | ±5.8% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and low beta support near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $217.34 on Aug 20, 2026 = -0.5% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.8%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $199.91–$236.89 typical range · internal point $220.00 | — | ±8.5% | 5/10 | Analyst Buy chorus offers mild lift into September |
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $216.00 | — | -1.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins as fair value discount widens |
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $212.00 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and housing narrative cap upside |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $209.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $206.00 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | January tape weakness on consumer discretionary rotation |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $204.00 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Path converges toward deserved value near 198 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $214.51 (-1.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $218.40 |
| Composite fair value | $181.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $141.63 |
| DCF fair value | $191.65 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -62 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +31 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.1% 3m 29.3% 6m 30.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.63 3m 0.35 5m 0.80 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -20.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | LOW-20260807-000819-8e18 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-LOW-20260807-005507-71c9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-LOW-20260807-005507-71c9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-LOW-20260807-005507-71c9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-LOW-20260807-005507-71c9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | LOW-20260807-000819-8e18 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | LOW-20260807-000819-8e18 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $218.40 | $204.00 | -6.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.