Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$84.53
6-month call
Bull +39.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$118.00
Great value below
$90.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+39.6% to $118.00
Predicted High
$118.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$85.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
LRN trends higher to
$118.00
(+39.6% from $84.53)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisLRN trades well below composite fair value ($161) with strong quality and forensic marks, but sentiment is negative and the fallen-angel narrative caps near-term upside. Expect a slow drift higher toward the attractive-below-$90 zone first, then gradual convergence as the tape stays calm and value gravity pulls price back toward the mid-$100s over the full window.
Invalidated ifA sustained break below $80 or a sentiment score deteriorating past -30 would falsify the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $84.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $84.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $74.80–$94.26 typical range · internal point $85.20 | — | ±11.5% | 7/10 | Calm tape, low beta, minor drift from oversold base |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $70.44–$98.62 typical range · internal point $87.50 | — | ±16.7% | 6/10 | Value buyers accumulate below $90 attractive threshold |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $92.00 | — | +8.8% | 5/10 | Sentiment fatigue eases, technical base builds |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $98.00 | — | +15.9% | 5/10 | Possible earnings print reasserts beat track record |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $105.00 | — | +24.2% | 4/10 | Value convergence accelerates as narrative decays |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $112.00 | — | +32.5% | 4/10 | Re-rating toward composite fair value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $118.00 | — | +39.6% | 3/10 | Partial convergence toward $154 signal-adjusted anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $127.51 (+50.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $84.53 |
| Composite fair value | $161.34 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $154.80 |
| DCF fair value | $193.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $90.00 |
| Value net score | +51 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 70.4% 3m 57.8% 6m 46.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.77 3m -1.43 5m -0.29 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 5d behind | LRN-20260815-101123-e48c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260820-202802-043c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260820-202802-043c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260820-202802-043c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260820-202802-043c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260820-200621-afda |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260820-200621-afda |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.53 | $118.00 | +39.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.