Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$84.65
6-month call
Bull +29.9%
Target by Mar 2027
$110.00
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+29.9% to $110.00
Predicted High
$110.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$85.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
LRN trends higher to
$110.00
(+29.9% from $84.65)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisLRN trades well below composite fair value ($134) with solid quality and consistent earnings beats, but sentiment is neutral and near-term catalysts are absent. Expect a slow grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity asserts itself, with early drift and later acceleration.
Invalidated ifBreak below $80 bear scenario, or a negative pre-announcement/guidance cut before next print
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $84.65 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $84.65 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $75.09–$94.21 typical range · internal point $85.20 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime, mild drift, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $78.90 on Sep 18, 2026 = -6.8% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $70.80–$98.50 typical range · internal point $86.50 | — | ±16.4% | 5/10 | Quiet tape, slow mean reversion higher |
| What actually happened: closed $78.89 on Oct 2, 2026 = -6.8% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $90.00 | — | +6.3% | 5/10 | Earnings season anticipation, beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $95.50 | — | +12.8% | 4/10 | Post-print re-rating if beat continues |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $100.00 | — | +18.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward fair value estimate |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $105.50 | — | +24.6% | 3/10 | Continued convergence to composite anchors |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $110.00 | — | +29.9% | 3/10 | Approaches baseline endpoint, still discount to FV |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $113.24 (+33.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $84.65 |
| Composite fair value | $134.38 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $136.15 |
| DCF fair value | $160.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | +44 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.8% 3m 56.7% 6m 46.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.15 3m -1.83 5m -0.70 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 20d behind | LRN-20260815-101123-e48c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260905-011918-49dc |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260905-011918-49dc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260905-011918-49dc |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260905-011918-49dc |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260831-020001-7f01 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260905-010001-2aff |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.65 | $110.00 | +29.9% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $86.55 | $110.50 | +27.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.19 | $108.00 | +26.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.97 | $108.00 | +28.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.08 | $114.00 | +34.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.53 | $118.00 | +39.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.