Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$121.15
6-month call
Bull +24.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$150.50
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+24.2% to $150.50
Predicted High
$150.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$128.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:00 pm
Bull
LULU trends higher to
$150.50
(+24.2% from $121.15)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLULU trades at a deep discount to composite fair value ($185) with a hostile sentiment tape and a binary Sept 3 earnings event looming. Given 4-of-4 EPS beats, the likely path is a post-earnings relief bounce followed by gradual mean-reversion toward the low-$150s baseline as value gravity works over months, though sentiment headwinds cap the upside.
Invalidated ifA sharp Sept 3 earnings miss or guide-down that breaks below the $110.87 bear scenario would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $121.15 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $121.15 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $110.99–$131.31 typical range · internal point $128.50 | — | ±8.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings relief bounce off oversold sentiment |
| What actually happened: closed $98.37 on Sep 15, 2026 = -18.8% vs the call (predicted +6.1%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 24.9 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±8.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $106.42–$135.88 typical range · internal point $132.00 | — | ±12.2% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $95.86 on Oct 1, 2026 = -20.9% vs the call (predicted +9.0%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 29.8 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±12.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $136.00 | — | +12.3% | 4/10 | Gradual grind higher on mean reversion |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $140.00 | — | +15.6% | 4/10 | Holiday retail read supports athleisure recovery |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $144.00 | — | +18.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $148.00 | — | +22.2% | 3/10 | Continued reversion toward baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $150.50 | — | +24.2% | 3/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline over horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $149.60 (+23.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $121.15 |
| Composite fair value | $185.18 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $179.84 |
| DCF fair value | $183.93 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $210.99 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | +37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +45 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.9% 3m 42.1% 6m 43.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.68 3m 0.83 5m 1.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -32.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 17d behind | LULU-20260815-111314-403f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260901-232356-2804 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260901-232356-2804 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260901-232356-2804 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260901-232356-2804 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260901-230002-02e5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260901-230002-02e5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $121.15 | $150.50 | +24.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.81 | $152.00 | +25.8% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $116.80 | $150.00 | +28.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $117.12 | $142.00 | +21.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $118.06 | $147.00 | +24.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.23 | $149.00 | +23.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.