Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$6.28
6-month call
Bear -10.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$5.65
Great value below
$4.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.0% to $5.65
Predicted High
$6.24
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$5.65
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 1:05 am
Bear
LYG trends lower to
$5.65
(-10.0% from $6.28)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisLYG trades well above every valuation anchor with negative sentiment and a fading fallen-angel narrative, but a risk-on tape and low volatility limit near-term downside. Expect gradual mean reversion toward the deterministic $5.70 endpoint, with value gravity outweighing momentum over the 6-month horizon.
Invalidated ifA close above $6.80 on positive UK bank re-rating, or a break below $5.40 accelerating the decay, would invalidate this gradual glide path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $6.28 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $6.28 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $5.89–$6.67 typical range · internal point $6.24 | — | ±6.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds, low vol, minor drift lower |
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $5.71–$6.85 typical range · internal point $6.15 | — | ±9.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment weight begins pulling price off highs |
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $6.02 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Fallen-angel narrative fades, valuation gap pressures |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $5.88 | — | -6.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity dominates as regime cools |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $5.78 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, no catalyst to defend premium |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $5.70 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $5.65 | — | -10.0% | 3/10 | Continued slow drift toward fair-value composite |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $5.70 (-9.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $6.28 |
| Composite fair value | $2.79 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $2.51 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $2.79 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $4.50 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +14 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.2% 3m 31.6% 6m 33.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.52 3m 1.29 5m 1.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | LYG-20260810-002942-0a20 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LYG-20260810-005432-9877 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LYG-20260810-005432-9877 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LYG-20260810-005432-9877 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-LYG-20260810-005432-9877 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | LYG-20260810-002942-0a20 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | LYG-20260810-002942-0a20 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $6.28 | $5.65 | -10.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.