Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$1,888.50
6-month call
Bull +23.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$2,340.00
Great value below
$1,550.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+23.9% to $2,340.00
Predicted High
$2,340.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$1,925.00
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:40 am
Bull
MELI trends higher to
$2,340.00
(+23.9% from $1,888.50)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMELI is deeply undervalued vs composite fair value ($3,888) with strong quality (76) and improving sentiment amid a risk-on tape, but the -12% 6mo drift and lack of near-term earnings catalyst mean rerating unfolds gradually. Expect a modest early bounce on sentiment, consolidation, then steadier climb toward mid-$2000s as value gravity asserts.
Invalidated ifBreak below $1,550 attractive-zone floor on volume, or LatAm macro shock reversing risk-on regime
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,888.50 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $1,888.50 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $1,734.17–$2,042.83 typical range · internal point $1,925.00 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind and risk-on regime lift near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $1,887.82 on Aug 19, 2026 = 0.0% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $1,664.86–$2,112.14 typical range · internal point $1,960.00 | — | ±11.8% | 6/10 | Continued platform-monopoly narrative supports drift higher |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $2,010.00 | — | +6.4% | 5/10 | Pre-Q3 positioning as earnings approach fall window |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $2,120.00 | — | +12.3% | 5/10 | Earnings catalyst plus value gravity begin to compound |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $2,180.00 | — | +15.4% | 4/10 | Holiday LatAm ecommerce seasonality supports momentum |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $2,260.00 | — | +19.7% | 4/10 | Year-end rerating toward anchored-PE and fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $2,340.00 | — | +23.9% | 3/10 | Continued convergence toward composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $3,140.94 (+66.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,888.50 |
| Composite fair value | $3,888.20 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $5,270.16 |
| DCF fair value | $5,748.25 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,970.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $1,550.00 |
| Value net score | -30 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.2% 3m 41.0% 6m 40.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.21 3m 0.52 5m 0.96 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | MELI-20260803-164946-a2e1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MELI-20260803-175115-053d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MELI-20260803-175115-053d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MELI-20260803-175115-053d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MELI-20260803-175115-053d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | MELI-20260803-164946-a2e1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | MELI-20260803-164946-a2e1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $1,888.50 | $2,340.00 | +23.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 10, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.