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STALE Analysis Report
May 14, 2026
43 days ago · 96% complete · +1 refreshed
Re-run recommended — fundamentals and price action have likely diverged from this snapshot.

MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELI NASDAQ Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Montevideo, 11300, UY IPO 2007 mercadolibre.com Updated Jun 27, 7:12am
Price
$1,675.10
Market Cap
$84.9B
Employees
84,207
Beta
1.35
Avg Volume
545,000
CEO
Ariel Szarfsztejn
Business Description

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America. Its primary service, the Mercado Libre Marketplace, is an automated online system allowing businesses, independent vendors, and private individuals to list merchandise and finalize sales. Supporting this, the Mercado Pago FinTech platform offers a financial technology solution, facilitating transactions both on and off its e-commerce sites by enabling users to securely send and receive online payments and transfer funds via web and mobile applications. The company further expands its financial offerings through Mercado Fondo, a service that permits users to invest balances held in their Mercado Pago accounts, and Mercado Credito, which extends credit options to qualified merchants and consumers. For logistics, Mercado Envios provides a comprehensive solution, empowering sellers on its platform to utilize third-party delivery services and other logistical partners, including warehousing and fulfillment capabilities. Beyond these core services, MercadoLibre also runs Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classifieds platform for motor vehicles, real estate, and professional services. Mercado Libre Ads serves as an advertising platform, assisting major retailers and brands in promoting their products and services across the internet. Lastly, Mercado Shops offers a solution for users to establish, manage, and market their personalized online storefronts. Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre, Inc. is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

Business History
Generated: May 14, 2026 1:25pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:12am (just now)
$1,675.10
+55.85 (+3.45%)
Day Range
$1,600.06 – $1,693.94
52-Week Range
$1,495.00 – $2,645.22
50-Day MA
$1,694.51
200-Day MA
$1,954.97
Volume
472,941.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $1,750.00
Consensus $2,166.67
High $2,600.00
(47 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 50,697,182.00
Float 47,026,012.00
Free Float 92.8%
High free float — 92.8% of shares trade freely, ~7.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:12am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:15am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: May 14, 2026 1:23pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
44.23
Stock Price: $1,675
EPS (Diluted): 39.39
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
15.13
Stock Price: $1,675
Total Equity: $6.75B
Shares: 50,697,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
27.64
Market Cap: $84.92B
Total Debt: $9.06B
Cash: $3.67B
EBITDA: $3.56B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$109.8B
Market Cap: $84.92B
Total Debt: $9.06B
Cash: $3.67B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
44.5%
Gross Profit: $12.86B
Revenue: $28.89B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
11.1%
Operating Income: $3.20B
Revenue: $28.89B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
6.9%
Net Income: $2.00B
Revenue: $28.89B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
29.6%
Net Income: $2.00B
Total Equity: $6.75B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
12.4%
Operating Income: $3.20B
Tax Rate: 29.7%
Equity: $6.75B
Total Debt: $9.06B
Cash: $3.67B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.17
Current Assets: $33.57B
Current Liabilities: $28.63B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.34
Short-Term Debt: $4.58B
Long-Term Debt: $4.49B
Total Debt: $9.06B
Total Equity: $6.75B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$569.92
Revenue: $28.89B
Shares: 50,697,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$133.10
Total Equity: $6.75B
Shares: 50,697,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$212.50
Operating CF: $12.12B
CapEx: -$1.34B
Shares: 50,697,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $1,675
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $2.00B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: May 14, 2026 1:23pm
Compares MELI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: May 14, 2026 1:28:24 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:15am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $7.1B $10.8B $15.1B $20.8B $28.9B
Cost of Revenue $4.1B $5.6B $7.5B $11.2B $16.0B
Gross Profit $3.0B $5.2B $7.6B $9.6B $12.9B
Operating Expenses $2.6B $4.1B $5.4B $6.9B $9.7B
Operating Income $441.0M $1.1B $2.2B $2.6B $3.2B
Net Income $83.0M $482.0M $987.0M $1.9B $2.0B
EBITDA $674.0M $1.3B $2.3B $3.2B $3.6B
EPS $1.67 $9.57 $19.64 $37.69 $39.39
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:14am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.6B $1.9B $2.6B $2.6B $3.7B
Total Current Assets $8.2B $11.0B $14.3B $20.1B $33.6B
Total Assets $10.1B $13.7B $17.6B $25.2B $42.7B
Current Liabilities $5.8B $8.6B $11.3B $16.6B $28.6B
Long-Term Debt $2.2B $2.6B $2.1B $2.8B $4.5B
Total Liabilities $8.6B $11.9B $14.5B $20.8B $35.9B
Total Equity $1.5B $1.8B $3.1B $4.4B $6.7B
Retained Earnings $397.0M $913.0M $1.9B $3.8B $5.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $965.0M $2.9B $5.1B $7.9B $12.1B
Capital Expenditure -$609.5M -$455.0M -$509.0M -$860.0M -$1.3B
Free Cash Flow $355.5M $2.5B $4.6B $7.1B $10.8B
Acquisitions (net) -$55.7M $0 $0 -$6.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$486.0M -$148.0M -$356.0M -$1.0M -$1.0M
Net Change in Cash $1.1B -$285.0M $485.0M $851.0M $8.8B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:12am (just now)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $51.4B
$47.8B – $52.8B
$63.7B
$63.2B – $64.3B
$79.6B
$73.0B – $84.4B
$94.7B
$86.7B – $100.4B
EBITDA $8.5B
$7.9B – $8.8B
$10.6B
$10.5B – $10.7B
$13.2B
$12.1B – $14.0B
$15.7B
$14.4B – $16.7B
Net Income $3.0B
$2.4B – $3.3B
$4.2B
$3.2B – $4.8B
$6.5B
$5.8B – $7.1B
$8.9B
$7.9B – $9.6B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:15am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +52.5% +40.1% +37.5% +39.1%
Gross Profit Growth +73.0% +46.0% +26.2% +34.3%
Operating Income Growth +142.4% +106.5% +19.2% +21.7%
Net Income Growth +480.7% +104.8% +93.6% +4.5%
EBITDA Growth +95.5% +70.8% +42.8% +10.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-17 Summers Sean 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Melamud Marcelo P-Purchase 124.64 $1,604.62 $200,000
2026-06-10 Tolda Stelleo G-Gift 250.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Tolda Stelleo A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Calemzuk Emiliano A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 SEGAL SUSAN A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Sanders Richard A A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Lawson Martin R A-Award 94.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas P-Purchase 505.00 $1,656.10 $836,331
2026-05-22 Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas P-Purchase 95.00 $1,655.01 $157,226
2026-02-27 Melamud Marcelo P-Purchase 57.00 $1,755.77 $100,079
2026-01-01 Yunes Elias Fraiha Fernando 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-01 Costa Agustin Pablo 0.00 $0.00 $0
2025-12-12 Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos S-Sale 845.00 $2,028.14 $1.7M
2025-12-11 Calemzuk Emiliano S-Sale 45.00 $2,027.37 $91,232
2025-12-09 Tolda Stelleo S-Sale 246.00 $2,047.88 $503,778
2025-08-22 Tolda Stelleo J-Other 20,000.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-22 Tolda Stelleo J-Other 20,000.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 8:42am (6d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2017-12-28 $0.15 2017-11-02 2017-12-31 2018-01-16
2017-09-28 $0.15 2017-08-07 2017-09-30 2017-10-16
2017-06-28 $0.15 2017-05-12 2017-06-30 2017-07-17
2017-03-29 $0.15 2017-03-20 2017-03-31 2017-04-17
2016-12-28 $0.15 2016-11-04 2016-12-31 2017-01-16
2016-09-28 $0.15 2016-08-10 2016-09-30 2016-10-14
2016-06-28 $0.15 2016-05-18 2016-06-30 2016-07-15
2016-03-29 $0.15 2016-03-04 2016-03-31 2016-04-15
2015-12-29 $0.10 2015-11-24 2015-12-31 2016-01-15
2015-09-28 $0.10 2015-09-03 2015-09-30 2015-10-15
2015-06-26 $0.10 2015-05-21 2015-06-30 2015-07-15
2015-03-27 $0.10 2015-03-06 2015-03-31 2015-04-15
2014-12-29 $0.17 2014-11-11 2014-12-31 2015-01-15
2014-09-26 $0.17 2014-08-15 2014-09-30 2014-10-15
2014-06-26 $0.17 2014-06-03 2014-06-30 2014-07-15
2014-03-27 $0.17 2014-03-14 2014-03-31 2014-04-15
2013-12-27 $0.14 2013-11-26 2013-12-31 2014-01-15
2013-09-26 $0.14 2013-08-12 2013-09-30 2013-10-15
2013-06-26 $0.14 2013-05-08 2013-06-28 2013-07-15
2013-03-26 $0.14 2013-03-05 2013-03-29 2013-04-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for MELI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-05-14 13:28:50
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Hold/avoid at $1,612 — margin compression from 10.5% to 4.7% undercuts the "undervalued" narrative; fair value range $1,400-$1,700 pending Q2'26 margin direction and credit book disclosure.

Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue went $5.07B → $5.31B → $6.06B → $5.94B → $6.79B → $7.41B → $8.76B → $8.85B. That's 75% growth over seven quarters, with the most recent print (Mar-2026) up 49% YoY against the $5.94B comp. Calling this "decelerating" is technically true on the sequential delta ($8.76B → $8.85B is only 1% QoQ) but misleading — YoY acceleration is intact. What's actually worrying is the margin compression: net margin has walked from 10.5% (Q4'24) down to 8.3% → 7.7% → 5.7% → 6.4% → 4.7%. Net income in the latest quarter ($417M) is below the year-ago comp ($494M) despite 49% more revenue. Recent earnings YoY of 4.5% versus revenue YoY of 39% is the entire story this file is telling, and the synthesis model is glossing over it.

The bullish synthesis ("dramatically undervalued, implied 3.7% growth") leans heavily on FCF — $10.77B OCF and $10.77B FCF on $28.89B revenue is a 37% FCF margin, which would be extraordinary if it represented true owner earnings. It does not. MELI's "operating cash flow" is inflated by float from Mercado Pago — customer deposits and payables in the fintech book show up as working capital sources, not earned cash. Annual net income was $2.00B; reverse-engineering a DCF off $10.77B "FCF" and ignoring the credit book's funding mechanics is the kind of error that makes a stock look cheap right up until the credit cycle turns. ROA of 4.7% and ROE of 29.6% imply heavy leverage, consistent with a balance sheet carrying a credit portfolio — and the file conspicuously omits total debt and total equity, which is precisely the data you'd want for a fintech lender.

The pre-flight model is closer to the truth: this is a multi-segment narrative where the fintech/credit book is doing increasing work and bringing increasing risk. The margin compression from 10.5% to 4.7% is plausibly the credit book taking provisions as the LatAm rate environment bites — exactly the scenario the market is pricing. At $1,612 and a $81.7B cap, on $2.0B trailing NI you're paying ~41x earnings for a business whose earnings just grew 4.5% YoY. The 42.5x P/E is not anomalous given growth, but the bull case requires margins to mean-revert toward 8-10% — if they stay at 4.7%, forward NI annualizes to roughly $1.7B and the multiple swells to ~48x. The synthesis verdict of "dramatically undervalued" requires you to ignore the most important quarterly data point in the file.

A careful contrarian argues: revenue growth is real and durable (LatAm e-commerce penetration is genuinely 10-15%), but you're paying a 41x multiple on earnings that are actively compressing, with a fintech credit book of unknown size sitting on a balance sheet whose debt and equity lines are blank in this file. Insider activity is net selling (1,136 shares sold vs 57 bought in 2026, ignoring awards/J-other). The 39% drawdown from highs is not necessarily a mispricing — it's the market correctly demanding to see whether Q1'26's 4.7% net margin is a trough or a new normal. I dissent from the synthesis. Fair value is not "dramatically higher" — it's range-bound near current levels until margin direction clarifies. If net margin recovers to 8% on $36B 2026 revenue, that's $2.9B NI and a 28x forward multiple at current price — defensible but not cheap. If it stays at 5%, that's $1.8B NI and 45x forward — expensive. The asymmetry is roughly balanced, not skewed to the upside. I'd want to see the Q2'26 print and explicit disclosure of the credit book size and NPL ratios before underwriting the bull case. Starter position at $1,400 (10% lower, ~36x trailing) makes more sense than chasing here.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-05-14 13:29:03
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus's concerns about margin compression but see more upside than downside at $1,612. Fair value closer to $1,500, recognizing LatAm growth potential but hedging against fintech risk.

In reviewing MercadoLibre's data independently, I focus on the robust revenue growth trajectory juxtaposed with the concerning margin compression. The company has demonstrated a remarkable 75% revenue growth over seven quarters, indicating strong market penetration and expansion. However, the net margin decline from 10.5% to 4.7% over the same period suggests underlying cost pressures or strategic investments impacting profitability. The deceleration in net income growth, with the latest quarter's $417M falling below the year-ago figure of $494M, despite a 49% increase in revenue, is particularly alarming. This suggests that while top-line growth is impressive, the bottom line is not keeping pace, raising questions about operational efficiency and cost management.

Opus highlights the margin compression as a critical risk factor, noting that net margin has walked down significantly. I concur with this assessment, as the decoupling of revenue and net income growth rates is a red flag. Furthermore, I agree with Opus's skepticism of the reported free cash flow (FCF) figures. The $10.77B in FCF, representing a 37% margin, seems inflated when juxtaposed with a net income of only $2.00B. This discrepancy likely stems from the operational cash flow being bolstered by non-operational sources such as fintech float, which masks the underlying earnings quality.

However, I diverge from Opus on the valuation stance. While Opus suggests a hold with a fair value range of $1,400-$1,700, pending margin recovery, I see the growth potential in the LatAm market as a more compelling factor. The current P/E ratio of 42.5x reflects high expectations, yet the 39% revenue CAGR and 52.5% FCF CAGR imply a company still in a growth phase. The market may indeed be over-penalizing potential risks, especially if the fintech operations stabilize and margins rebound. Thus, I view the current price as closer to fair, albeit with a need for caution regarding the fintech segment's risk exposure.

A skeptic would argue that MercadoLibre's reliance on fintech for cash flow and lack of transparent debt figures are significant red flags. The absence of total debt and equity data complicates a clear assessment of leverage and financial health. Additionally, insider sales outpacing purchases may indicate lack of confidence from those closest to the company, reinforcing the cautious approach suggested by Opus.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30