META
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Meta Platforms Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$568.97
6-month call
Bull +7.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$612.00
Great value below
$485.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.6% to $612.00
Predicted High
$612.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$555.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:08 am
Bull
META trends higher to
$612.00
(+7.6% from $568.97)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMETA trades at a modest discount to composite fair value but sentiment is pinned by antitrust overhang and AI-capex skepticism. Near-term drift is muted with mild pressure; value gravity and quality reassert over the medium term toward the composite anchor, with the antitrust trial as the swing factor.
Invalidated ifAdverse antitrust structural remedy headlines or a break below $485 on capex guidance would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $568.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $568.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $516.26–$621.68 typical range · internal point $563.00 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag persists in quiet news window |
| What actually happened: closed $578.54 on Sep 1, 2026 = +1.7% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $492.58–$645.36 typical range · internal point $555.00 | — | ±13.4% | 6/10 | Antitrust headlines and capex skepticism weigh |
| What actually happened: closed $682.31 on Sep 17, 2026 = +19.9% vs the call (predicted -2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 22.4 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±13.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $572.00 | — | +0.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approach stabilizes tape near baseline |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $590.00 | — | +3.7% | 5/10 | Earnings beat pattern lifts toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $598.00 | — | +5.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $605.00 | — | +6.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite $600 anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $612.00 | — | +7.6% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence, trial risk caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $577.49 (+1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $568.97 |
| Composite fair value | $600.61 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $638.95 |
| DCF fair value | $457.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,286.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $485.00 |
| Value net score | -34 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +83 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.7% 3m 46.5% 6m 43.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.22 3m 1.31 5m 1.59 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | 20d behind | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260817-123656-25c6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260817-123656-25c6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260817-123656-25c6 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260817-123656-25c6 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.