Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$83.33
6-month call
Bull +21.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$101.00
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+21.2% to $101.00
Predicted High
$101.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$78.75
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:10 am
Bull
MNDY trends higher to
$101.00
(+21.2% from $83.33)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMNDY screens cheap versus DCF and quality is strong, but a fresh post-earnings sentiment air-pocket and fallen-angel SaaS narrative keep the tape heavy near-term. Expect a drift lower toward the attractive-below zone, then a gradual recovery as risk-on regime and consistent EPS beats reassert value gravity, ending below the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA sustained close below $70 with expanding volume, or failure to reclaim $90 by December, would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $83.33 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $83.33 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $71.94–$94.72 typical range · internal point $81.50 | — | ±13.7% | 6/10 | post-earnings sentiment overhang keeps drift lower |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $66.82–$99.84 typical range · internal point $78.75 | — | ±19.8% | 6/10 | tags attractive-below zone as sellers exhaust |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $82.00 | — | -1.6% | 5/10 | risk-on tape stabilizes price near value line |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $88.00 | — | +5.6% | 5/10 | quality bid returns, dip-buyers step in |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $93.50 | — | +12.2% | 4/10 | year-end SaaS rotation and pre-print positioning |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $97.00 | — | +16.4% | 4/10 | next earnings beat setup lifts multiple modestly |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $101.00 | — | +21.2% | 3/10 | value gravity toward DCF, short of baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $106.24 (+27.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $83.33 |
| Composite fair value | $124.33 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $140.06 |
| DCF fair value | $142.20 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | +15 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 74.9% 3m 68.6% 6m 65.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.99 3m 0.49 5m 0.43 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 16.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 15d behind | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260817-101326-925a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260817-101326-925a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260817-101326-925a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260817-101326-925a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.33 | $101.00 | +21.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.