Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$57.77
6-month call
Bull +11.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$64.20
Great value below
$54.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.1% to $64.20
Predicted High
$64.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$57.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
MPLX trends higher to
$64.20
(+11.1% from $57.77)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMPLX trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ($83) with attractive yield support, but negative sentiment and MLP stigma cap near-term upside. Expect gradual mean-reversion toward the low-$60s over six months, with the deterministic $69 endpoint likely too aggressive given sentiment drag.
Invalidated ifA break below $54 on distribution concerns or midstream sector selloff, or a surge above $65 on M&A/simplification news
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $57.77 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $57.77 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $55.59–$59.95 typical range · internal point $57.90 | — | ±3.8% | 7/10 | Neutral regime, low beta, minimal near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $59.34 on Sep 3, 2026 = +2.7% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±3.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $54.61–$60.93 typical range · internal point $58.40 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Slow drift as yield support absorbs sentiment drag |
| What actually happened: closed $59.44 on Sep 18, 2026 = +2.9% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $59.20 | — | +2.5% | 5/10 | Distribution accrual and value gravity begin working |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $60.50 | — | +4.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential catalyst, midstream stability |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $61.80 | — | +7.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors high-yield defensive names |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $63.00 | — | +9.1% | 4/10 | January effect, valuation gap narrows modestly |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $64.20 | — | +11.1% | 3/10 | Continued convergence toward fair value, sentiment lag |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $69.46 (+20.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $57.77 |
| Composite fair value | $83.17 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $88.33 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $99.92 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $54.00 |
| Value net score | +21 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +45 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.9% 3m 19.0% 6m 18.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.34 3m -0.01 5m -0.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 14, 2026 | 6d behind | MPLX-20260814-001404-c5cd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260820-200349-5aca |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260820-200349-5aca |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260820-200349-5aca |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260820-200349-5aca |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | MPLX-20260820-161112-ddb0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $57.77 | $64.20 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bull | $57.06 | $61.30 | +7.4% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.