Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$142.00
6-month call
Bear -21.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$112.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-21.1% to $112.00
Predicted High
$150.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$112.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:14 pm
Bear
MRNA trends lower to
$112.00
(-21.1% from $142.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMRNA is a hot narrative name up 174% in six months on melanoma vaccine catalyst, with sentiment driving the tape while valuation lenses scream overextension. Expect momentum to carry near-term with high volatility, then gradual mean-reversion pressure as the story matures without a fresh catalyst and profit-taking accelerates into year-end.
Invalidated ifA break below $110 support or a negative Phase 3 melanoma readout would invalidate the near-term ride; a sustained hold above $160 with fresh catalysts would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $142.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $142.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $78.59–$205.41 typical range · internal point $146.00 | — | ±44.7% | 6/10 | Momentum and narrative heat carry short term |
| What actually happened: closed $135.61 on Sep 9, 2026 = -4.5% vs the call (predicted +2.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 7.3 pp · accuracy 7/10 · typical range ±44.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $50.11–$233.89 typical range · internal point $150.00 | — | ±64.7% | 5/10 | Risk-on regime supports continued speculative bid |
| What actually happened: closed $198.88 on Sep 25, 2026 = +40.1% vs the call (predicted +5.6%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 34.4 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±64.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $144.00 | — | +1.4% | 4/10 | Volatility whipsaws as profit-taking meets dip buyers |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $135.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling without fresh catalyst |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $125.00 | — | -12.0% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling on huge YTD gains |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $118.00 | — | -16.9% | 4/10 | Quality and value lenses reassert as narrative cools |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $112.00 | — | -21.1% | 3/10 | Drift toward attractive-below-95 zone absent new catalyst |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $142.00 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -56 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -51 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 366.9% 3m 224.2% 6m 165.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 14.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.27 3m 2.68 5m 2.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 174.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MRNA-20260826-230001-a3d2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRNA-20260826-234229-a0d0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRNA-20260826-234229-a0d0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRNA-20260826-234229-a0d0 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRNA-20260826-234229-a0d0 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MRNA-20260826-230001-a3d2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MRNA-20260826-230001-a3d2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $142.00 | $112.00 | -21.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.