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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Moderna Inc. (MRNA) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -54 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -51 · Value -56 · Sentiment 20 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Moderna Inc.
MRNA NASDAQModerna Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines and vaccines based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Its commercial portfolio includes respiratory and infectious disease vaccines, while its broader pipeline spans oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune conditions, and other therapeutic areas. Moderna uses its mRNA platform to design products that instruct cells to produce proteins or immune responses relevant to prevention and treatment. The company also works with manufacturing and commercialization capabilities to support product development and distribution across major healthcare markets. Headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna plays a significant role in the biopharmaceutical industry by advancing a new class of medicines across vaccines and therapeutics.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -7.26
Total Equity: $8.65B
Shares: 389,000,000
Total Debt: $610.00M
Cash: $2.60B
EBITDA: -$2.86B
Total Debt: $610.00M
Cash: $2.60B
Revenue: $1.94B
Shares: 389,000,000
Revenue: $1.94B
Revenue: $1.94B
Revenue: $1.94B
Total Equity: $8.65B
Tax Rate: -2.0%
Equity: $8.65B
Total Debt: $610.00M
Cash: $2.60B
Current Liabilities: $1.99B
Long-Term Debt: $610.00M
Total Debt: $610.00M
Total Equity: $8.65B
Shares: 389,000,000
Shares: 389,000,000
CapEx: -$192.00M
Shares: 389,000,000
Stock Price: $158.83
Net Income: -$2.82B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 11:42pm (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.5B | $19.3B | $6.8B | $3.2B | $1.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.6B | $5.4B | $4.7B | $1.5B | $868.0M |
| Gross Profit | $15.9B | $13.8B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.6B | $4.4B | $6.4B | $5.7B | $4.2B |
| Operating Income | $13.3B | $9.4B | -$4.2B | -$3.9B | -$3.1B |
| Net Income | $12.2B | $8.4B | -$4.7B | -$3.6B | -$2.8B |
| EBITDA | $13.5B | $9.8B | -$3.6B | -$3.8B | -$2.9B |
| EPS | $30.31 | $21.26 | $-12.33 | $-9.28 | $-7.26 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $28.29 | $20.12 | $-12.33 | $-9.28 | $-7.26 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 11:00pm (42d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.8B | $3.2B | $2.9B | $1.9B | $2.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $16.1B | $13.4B | $10.3B | $8.1B | $6.5B |
| Total Assets | $24.7B | $25.9B | $18.4B | $14.1B | $12.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $9.1B | $4.9B | $3.0B | $2.2B | $2.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | $39.0M | $610.0M |
| Total Liabilities | $10.5B | $6.7B | $4.6B | $3.2B | $3.7B |
| Total Equity | $14.1B | $19.1B | $13.9B | $10.9B | $8.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $10.0B | $18.3B | $13.6B | $10.0B | $7.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 11:42pm (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $13.6B | $5.0B | -$3.1B | -$3.0B | -$1.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$284.0M | -$400.0M | -$707.0M | -$1.1B | -$192.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.3B | $4.6B | -$3.8B | -$4.1B | -$2.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | -$85.0M | $0 | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$857.0M | -$3.3B | -$1.2B | $0 | -$2.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $4.2B | -$3.6B | -$289.0M | -$999.0M | $668.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 11:42pm (41d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.3% | -64.4% | -52.7% | -39.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -12.7% | -84.4% | -17.8% | -39.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | -29.2% | -145.0% | +6.9% | +22.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -31.5% | -156.4% | +24.5% | +20.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | -27.8% | -137.1% | -3.8% | +23.9% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-06 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -284%; a −1σ run costs 100%. Ratio -2.8:1 (μ 22.0%, σ 120.2% , 11 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -1.0 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($149.66) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +19% | 17.3% | $0.19 | -100% |
| Base — stabilizes | +13% | 15.0% | $-2.32 | -102% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +6% | 12.8% | $-4.04 | -103% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +260% | -141.4% | $0.00 | -100% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +50% | -141.4% | $-275.12 | -284% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -50% | -141.4% | $0.00 | -100% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-26 23:51The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers here are worse than the synthesis softens them to be. TTM revenue through Q2 2026 is roughly $2.23B ($1.02B + $678M + $389M + $145M), but the trajectory inside that is brutal: Q1 2026 at $389M and Q2 2026 at just $145M — a 66% sequential collapse and essentially matching the seasonal trough of Q2 2025 ($142M). The Q3 seasonal spike ($1.86B in 2024, $1.02B in 2025) has now halved year-over-year; if that decay rate holds, Q3 2026 prints around $500-600M and full-year 2026 revenue lands closer to $1.3-1.5B, not $1.94B. That's not a plateau — that's the endemic COVID floor still searching for a bottom, and RSV (mRESVIA) is clearly not filling the hole. Meanwhile the burn is accelerating in absolute terms: operating losses of $3.07B on $1.94B of revenue in 2025, and Q1+Q2 2026 already show $2.12B of net losses on $534M of revenue. With $2.6B cash plus marketable securities (the $18.5B "cash hoard" the narrative model cites is stale — the balance sheet says $2.6B in cash-equivalents against $8.65B total equity), the runway math is tighter than the bulls acknowledge unless you count the full investment portfolio, which management is actively drawing down.
I largely agree with the synthesis's "high conviction required" framing but I think the market-forces "neutral" call and the thesis score of -10 both understate the asymmetric downside. At $63.4B market cap on a plausible 2026 revenue of $1.3-1.5B, that's a 42-49x forward P/S for a business with negative gross-margin-adjusted operating leverage and no approved non-vaccine mRNA product. The narrative layer's claim that fundamentals support $30-40B is generous — I get closer to $20-25B on a sum-of-parts (net cash + PV of stabilized respiratory franchise at $1B revenue and 30% peak margins + heavily risk-adjusted oncology option value). The gap between $63B and $25B is exactly the platform-narrative premium, and narrative durability is being tested every quarter the top line keeps halving.
The contrarian bull case is real but narrow: INT (intismeran autogene, the Merck-partnered personalized cancer vaccine) has legitimately impressive Phase 2b melanoma data with a hazard ratio around 0.44 for RFS, and the Phase 3 readout is a genuine binary that could re-rate the entire platform. If that hits and Merck exercises broader collaboration, the oncology optionality alone justifies materially more than the current implied ~$40B narrative premium. The insider activity is actually less alarming than it looks — these are almost all option exercises with tax-related sales on the same day (Aug 5-6, 2026 clustered), consistent with programmatic 10b5-1 behavior, not conviction selling. That's a meaningful correction to the "concerning insider selling" narrative in market-forces.
Where I dissent from the models: they're treating this as "priced for perfection with pipeline optionality" when the quarterly cadence suggests it's priced for a pipeline win that may not arrive before cash gets tight enough to force a capital raise at a much lower price. The Q2 2026 print of $145M revenue against $782M net loss is the tell — this is a company burning ~$4B annually with declining product revenue and roughly 18-24 months of comfortable runway before financing conversations become non-optional. Dilution at $80-100 to shore up the balance sheet ahead of the INT-202 Phase 3 readout is a very plausible 2027 scenario. I'd want to own this closer to $90-110 (roughly $36-44B market cap, which is where fundamentals-plus-modest-optionality actually clears) rather than $158, and the right trade is probably to wait for either the Phase 3 oncology catalyst or the forced-financing washout, whichever comes first. The synthesis's "high conviction required" is directionally right but the honest translation is: avoid at this price unless you have a differentiated view on INT-202 timing.
GPT Reading
At $158.83, Moderna is being valued like a late-stage platform winner while the actual income statement still looks like a post-windfall unwind with no visible floor. Revenue has fallen from $19.3B in 2022 to $6.85B in 2023, $3.24B in 2024, and $1.94B in 2025; the first half of 2026 is only $534M, down from $1.98B in the first half of 2025, so the current run rate is deteriorating again rather than stabilizing. The quarterly pattern is also ugly in a way the “platform” label can obscure: Q1 2026 revenue was $389M and Q2 was just $145M, against net losses of $1.34B and $782M respectively. That is not a business in temporary trough profitability; that is a company spending at a scale built for a much larger commercial base than it currently has. Even giving credit for seasonality and product launch timing, a business with a $63.4B market cap and a 31.8x trailing sales multiple should not be posting -345% and -539% net margins in its latest two quarters.
The core issue is not that Moderna is unprofitable today; biotechs often are. The issue is the combination of collapsing commercial revenue, heavy fixed-cost infrastructure, and a valuation that still implies multiple future blockbusters. In 2025, gross profit was $1.08B on $1.94B of revenue, so the gross margin at 55% says the products themselves can make money. But operating loss was $3.07B and free cash flow was -$2.07B, which means the problem is the cost structure required to chase the pipeline. With $2.6B of cash against only $610M of debt, insolvency is not an immediate problem, but the balance sheet is no longer the old Moderna shock absorber many investors still remember from the COVID cash era. At a burn rate around $2B annually, the company is funding maybe a couple of years of this posture before it must either deliver meaningful product revenue, cut deeply, or lean on capital markets. Paying 7.1x book for that setup is hard to defend.
What stands out most is that the market cap appears anchored to what Moderna might become, not to what has been de-risked. If I back out the $2.6B cash, the enterprise value is still roughly $60B against trailing revenue under $2B and sharply negative EBITDA. That is venture-style pricing for a public company whose lead non-COVID commercial proof points are still absent from these numbers. The one quarter of positive net income in the dataset, Q3 2024, was $13M on $1.86B of revenue, showing that scale can rescue the P&L—but it also underscored how dependent profitability remains on occasional revenue spikes rather than durable base demand. The numbers do not show an emerging multi-product franchise; they show a company living off residual COVID-related seasonality while financing a very expensive option portfolio in oncology, respiratory, and rare disease. That option portfolio may be real, but at $158 the market is paying as if several options are already in the money.
The best argument against this bearish read is straightforward: Moderna is not a normal multiple-on-current-sales stock, and using trailing revenue to call it overvalued can miss the point. It still has $8.65B of equity, limited debt, and a platform that already produced one of the most important medicines of the last decade at global scale. If even one or two major programs hit, today’s P/S can compress very quickly on forward numbers. The 55% gross margin suggests commercialization economics are not broken, just under-absorbed. A bull would also argue that the quarterly volatility is exactly what you should expect during a transition from pandemic demand to a broader respiratory and therapeutic franchise; Q3/Q4 have historically been stronger, and the revenue sequence from $108M in Q1 2025 to $1.02B in Q3 2025 shows how misleading trough quarters can be. That case is serious. I weigh it less heavily because a $63B valuation is not pricing “one hit works”; it is pricing a portfolio outcome, and the existing financials are not yet giving evidence that commercialization execution is catching up with the science.
What would change my mind is evidence of a real revenue base forming outside episodic COVID demand and a burn profile that proves management can scale costs to reality. Concretely, I would need to see at least two things: first, annualized revenue power moving back above $4B with clear visibility rather than one-off quarterly spikes, and second, operating cash burn narrowing materially from -$1.87B toward better than -$1B without gutting the pipeline. On the pipeline side, a major late-stage success with a visible path to multi-billion-dollar sales would matter—but it has to be paired with commercialization numbers, not just clinical promise. If the next strong seasonal quarters fail to re-establish even a $2B-plus annual revenue trajectory, I think the market will eventually stop valuing Moderna as a proven platform and start valuing it as an expensive R&D holding company.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a company in freefall from a one-time windfall, not a platform compounding. Revenue cratered from $19.26B in 2022 to $3.24B in 2024 and $1.94B in 2025—a roughly 90% collapse off the peak—with a trailing revenue CAGR of −46.7% and recent YoY still −39.9%. The seasonal vaccine pattern remains visible (Q3 2025 at $1.02B, Q4 at $678M) but the floor keeps giving way: Q1 2026 printed $389M and Q2 2026 only $145M, both deep in the red at −$1.34B and −$782M net income. Annual 2025 operating loss of −$3.07B and free cash flow of −$2.07B against just $2.60B in cash means the COVID war chest is largely gone; at this burn rate the balance sheet buys roughly a year-plus of runway before dilution or drastic cuts, not the multi-year optionality the $63B market cap implies. A 31.8× price-to-sales and 7.1× price-to-book on shrinking top line and −145% net margins is the market paying for a story the income statement has stopped supporting.
What stands out is the mismatch between remaining commercial reality and valuation. Gross margin held at 55% in 2025, proving the manufacturing economics still work when volume exists, yet operating margin of −158% shows R&D and commercial spend are sized for a pipeline that has not yet replaced COVID cash flows. Debt is trivial at $610M (D/E 0.07) and the current ratio of 3.3 is fine, so solvency is not the near-term risk—equity dilution and narrative breakage are. Insider activity in August 2026 clusters around large option exercises paired with hundreds of thousands of shares sold; that is not a crisis signal by itself in biotech, but it is not accumulation either. The quantitative models correctly flag narrative_platform status and a thesis score near zero-to-negative; the data underneath is harsher than “high conviction required.” It is a company whose only proven product is in structural decline and whose next acts remain unproven at commercial scale.
The strongest opposing case is that mRNA already worked once at global scale, the respiratory franchise (COVID endemic plus RSV/flu/combos) can still stabilize mid-single-digit billions of revenue, and personalized cancer vaccines plus rare-disease programs are genuine call options that big pharma would pay tens of billions to own. A bull can argue the $63B price is simply the market’s probability-weighted view of several multi-billion franchises landing before 2030, that 55% gross margins will drop straight through once volume returns, and that cash can be extended via partnerships or a controlled raise without killing the equity story. I weigh that less heavily because the same briefing shows no revenue floor after three years of decline, oncology remains pre-approval with zero mRNA therapeutics commercialized outside vaccines, and reverse-DCF math at this enterprise value demands near-flawless execution across multiple shots on goal while burning >$2B a year. Platform value is real; paying 32× declining sales for it with a thinning cash buffer is not disciplined.
I would flip toward neutral or constructive only if two or three concrete things arrive: quarterly respiratory revenue that stops falling and holds above ~$2.5–3B annualized run-rate with visible combo uptake; a clean late-stage oncology readout that de-risks personalized cancer vaccines into a partnerable or approvable asset; and a clear path to sub-$1B annual cash burn or a non-dilutive capital injection that extends runway past 2028 without gutting R&D. Absent those, the stock at $158.83 is pricing a monopoly narrative the fundamentals no longer anchor.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has fallen from 19.26B in 2022 to 1.94B in 2025 - a ~90% collapse - while operating margin has gone from +72% to -158%. Net income has swung from +12.2B to -2.82B, and FCF from +13.34B to -2.07B. This is a company that earned a windfall from COVID vaccines and is now burning cash trying to broaden its pipeline. Gross margin has partially recovered to 55% from a 2023 trough of 31.5%, but the base is far too small to cover an R&D and SBC load that consumes ~25% of revenue by itself. Balance sheet is still sturdy on the surface: Altman Z of 10.9, net cash ~2.0B, and mechanical earnings-quality checks are clean (Beneish -3.49, accruals -2.6%). But liquid cash of only 2.6B against a 2.07B annual burn implies roughly 5 quarters of runway on current trajectory - the module flags imminent financing risk. Broader liquid resources (marketable securities beyond 'liquid cash') likely extend this, and this is a filing-level check worth doing. Capital allocation is mixed: diluted share count actually shrank ~2.5% CAGR and buybacks exceeded SBC 337%, so per-share value is being defended - a genuine positive. Offsetting that, SBC at 24.9% of revenue is enormous versus a shrunken top line, and insider tape shows only sells (32.3M over 12 months, all option-exercise-and-sell by Bancel/Hoge), no open-market buys. This is a narrative platform story where the science may deliver, but the current-state business is losing money at accelerating rates.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Total investments and marketable securities beyond the 2.6B liquid cash figure - true runway may be materially longer
- Pipeline readouts and commercial launch timing for mRNA-1345 (RSV), flu combos, and INT (individualized neoantigen therapy)
- 2025 cost-restructuring plan targets and whether opex reductions are actually flowing through
- Any committed capex or manufacturing footprint obligations that could accelerate burn
- Customer/government contract concentration in remaining COVID revenue
Price is $149.66 for a ~$63B market cap. Strip out the ~$18.5B cash (roughly $44/share) and the market is paying ~$45B for a pipeline that generates negative operating cash flow of about $2B a year and a COVID franchise in structural decline (revenue -90% from peak). To justify $45B of enterprise value you need multiple mRNA blockbusters (RSV, flu, combo, oncology) to hit and scale - that is the bull case, not the base case, and the earnings-quality hint plus Shaky quality grade argue for a lower deserved multiple, not a higher one. My skeptical deserved value sits closer to cash plus a modest option value on the platform - call it roughly $70-110/share depending on how much credit you extend to the pipeline. That puts today's price ~35-50% above a defensible deserved value. Not a bubble, but clearly priced for platform success the company has not yet delivered outside COVID. Fair-value inputs that come in materially above price should be treated skeptically - they are extrapolating pipeline NPVs that require heroic clinical and commercial outcomes against Pfizer/BioNTech competition and payor pressure.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Latest quarterly cash burn and updated 2025/2026 opex guidance
- RSV and flu pivotal readouts and commercial uptake vs Pfizer
- Oncology (INT/mRNA-4157) phase 3 timing and any partnership economics with Merck
- Management guidance on path to breakeven and any cost-cut program size
- Any share issuance or buyback activity - dilution would lower deserved per-share value
MRNA is the textbook cult-narrative stock right now: the intismeran/Merck melanoma readout reignited the mRNA-platform story from oncology, Wolfe upgraded with a $9.2B cancer-vaccine TAM call, and the sector-wide mRNA outlook report is amplifying the platform-monopoly frame. That is a genuine, active tailwind pressing on this specific name - a story stock finally getting a non-COVID validation event, driving a 14% single-day pop past $150 and a 439% YTD run. Narrative intensity is strong, cult coefficient medium, and news flow is skewed positive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether Wolfe upgrade triggers a broader sell-side revision cycle or stays isolated
- Follow-through readouts on other oncology/combination programs to sustain the platform narrative
- Whether the post-spike profit-taking pattern deepens into a full narrative unwind
- Sector rotation signals in biotech and any China mRNA competitive news flow
The world's demand for pandemic-scale vaccination has passed; what remains is a seasonal, policy-mediated respiratory market where recommendation breadth and payer channels set the ceiling, and tightening U.S. immunization policy is compressing it. Against that, capital and scientific momentum in mRNA are intact: the platform's value is migrating from prevention at scale toward individualized oncology and rare disease, where the addressable economics are larger per patient but the timeline is regulatory, not commercial. So the near term is a decaying legacy franchise with a cost-cut cushion, and the structural case is an option on a technology transition the company is funding out of a shrinking base. Macro headwinds (10y 4.64) matter mainly because they raise the cost of long-duration, pre-revenue pipelines.
When we made this prediction on Aug 27, 2026, MRNA was $142.00. We expect it to be $112.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $95.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 27, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.