Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$513.53
6-month call
Neutral -3.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$495.00
Great value below
$380.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.6% to $495.00
Predicted High
$535.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$495.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:01 pm
Neutral
MSFT trends range-bound to
$495.00
(-3.6% from $513.53)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMSFT is riding a durable AI platform narrative in a risk-on tape with strong quality and repeated earnings beats, so momentum likely extends near-term. Rich valuation and slow value gravity cap the upside and cause mild fade into year-end and Q1, but no catalyst forces a break lower absent regime change.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off, a decisive close below $475, or an AI-capex/monetization disappointment from hyperscaler peers
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $513.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $513.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $469.48–$557.58 typical range · internal point $522.00 | — | ±8.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and AI momentum extend near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $495.63 on Sep 11, 2026 = -3.5% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±8.6%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $449.69–$577.37 typical range · internal point $528.00 | — | ±12.4% | 6/10 | Continued sentiment tailwind, no earnings catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $509.22 on Sep 28, 2026 = -0.8% vs the call (predicted +2.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±12.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $535.00 | — | +4.2% | 5/10 | October seasonality plus AI narrative peak |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $525.00 | — | +2.2% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation fatigue creeps in |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $515.00 | — | +0.3% | 4/10 | Year-end profit taking on extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $505.00 | — | -1.7% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity starts to bite |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $495.00 | — | -3.6% | 4/10 | Mild multiple compression toward anchored-PE range |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $471.87 (-8.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $513.53 |
| Composite fair value | $299.09 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $305.09 |
| DCF fair value | $210.75 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $633.88 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $380.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.6% 3m 43.1% 6m 36.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.98 3m 1.31 5m 0.99 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 30.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | 30d behind | MSFT-20260729-000735-161b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260828-232455-92c4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260828-232455-92c4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260828-232455-92c4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260828-232455-92c4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | MSFT-20260828-230001-b612 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | MSFT-20260828-230001-b612 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.