Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$241.59
6-month call
Neutral +0.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$242.50
Great value below
$205.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.4% to $242.50
Predicted High
$243.50
at 4 months
Predicted Low
$240.50
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:11 pm
Neutral
MTB trends range-bound to
$242.50
(+0.4% from $241.59)
by Feb 2027.
other
ThesisMTB is a low-beta regional bank sitting essentially at fair value with no strong narrative pull in either direction. Expect a gently drifting path with a modest wobble around the mid-October earnings print, converging back toward fair value by month six.
Invalidated ifA miss or guide-down at Oct 15 earnings pushing shares below $225, or a regime flip to risk-off, would invalidate the drift-to-fair-value path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $241.59 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $241.59 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $231.28–$251.90 typical range · internal point $242.20 | — | ±4.3% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift in risk-on regime, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $238.44 on Sep 8, 2026 = -1.3% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.3%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $226.64–$256.54 typical range · internal point $243.10 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Mild pre-earnings positioning, sentiment neutral |
| What actually happened: closed $221.19 on Sep 25, 2026 = -8.4% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $240.50 | — | -0.5% | 4/10 | Oct 15 earnings within window, digestion mixed |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $242.00 | — | +0.2% | 5/10 | Post-print stabilization near composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $243.50 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Year-end drift, dividend appeal, quiet tape |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $242.80 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | January regional bank sector rotation noise |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $242.50 | — | +0.4% | 4/10 | Anchoring to fair value composite near 240 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $242.67 (+0.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $241.59 |
| Composite fair value | $239.56 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $241.96 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $239.56 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $205.00 |
| Value net score | -25 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +16 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.0% 3m 21.4% 6m 21.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.51 3m 0.27 5m 0.44 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 10.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MTB-20260826-013001-2f0a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTB-20260826-034348-c59d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTB-20260826-034348-c59d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTB-20260826-034348-c59d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTB-20260826-034348-c59d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MTB-20260826-013001-2f0a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | MTB-20260826-013001-2f0a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $241.59 | $242.50 | +0.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.