Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$1,398.22
6-month call
Bear -8.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$1,275.00
Great value below
$950.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.8% to $1,275.00
Predicted High
$1,402.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$1,275.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:12 pm
Bear
MTD trends lower to
$1,275.00
(-8.8% from $1,398.22)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisMTD trades far above every fair-value anchor but quality is high and the tape is risk-on with no earnings catalyst near-term. Expect a slow drift lower as valuation gravity gradually reasserts, with limited near-term downside given calm sentiment and low beta.
Invalidated ifA break above $1,470 on strong volume or a surprise guide-up would falsify the fade thesis; conversely a break below $1,250 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,398.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $1,398.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $1,327.55–$1,468.89 typical range · internal point $1,402.00 | — | ±5.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape, no catalyst, low-vol drift sideways |
| What actually happened: closed $1,293.52 on Sep 11, 2026 = -7.5% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $1,295.81–$1,500.63 typical range · internal point $1,395.00 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Neutral sentiment, mild valuation drag begins |
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $1,378.00 | — | -1.4% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity nudges lower, no earnings support |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $1,355.00 | — | -3.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print window; high multiple pressured |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $1,330.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims rich-multiple names |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $1,305.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | January reset, anchored-PE pull continues |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $1,275.00 | — | -8.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline endpoint over six months |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $1,262.93 (-9.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,398.22 |
| Composite fair value | $682.88 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $709.77 |
| DCF fair value | $516.46 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,380.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $950.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.2% 3m 25.4% 6m 38.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.61 3m 0.62 5m 0.66 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | MTD-20260829-050002-1835 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTD-20260829-052548-5a76 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTD-20260829-052548-5a76 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTD-20260829-052548-5a76 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTD-20260829-052548-5a76 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | MTD-20260829-050002-1835 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | MTD-20260829-050002-1835 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $1,398.22 | $1,275.00 | -8.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.