Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$739.00
6-month call
Bear -22.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$575.00
Great value below
$480.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-22.2% to $575.00
Predicted High
$675.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$540.00
at 4 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-26.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:11 am
Bear
MU trends lower to
$575.00
(-22.2% from $739.00)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisMU is 80% higher over 6 months into a stress regime with beta 4.62 and sentiment at -99; memory-cycle narrative is cracking and value lens flags attractive-below is $480 versus $739 spot. Near-term path bends sharply lower as risk-off amplifies, with partial stabilization as the cycle debate resolves but no return to prior highs.
Invalidated ifMU reclaims and holds above 780 on a regime shift out of stress, or a memory pricing/AI-HBM datapoint reignites the bull narrative
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $739.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $739.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $578.05–$899.95 typical range · internal point $675.00 | — | ±21.8% | 7/10 | stress regime plus high beta drives immediate mean reversion |
| What actually happened: closed $911.29 on Aug 12, 2026 = +23.3% vs the call (predicted -8.7%) · direction MISS (called down, was up) · off by 32.0 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±21.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $505.76–$972.24 typical range · internal point $628.00 | — | ±31.6% | 7/10 | sentiment unwind continues as crowded longs de-risk |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $585.00 | — | -20.8% | 6/10 | memory-cycle cracks confirmed in supplier commentary |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $560.00 | — | -24.2% | 5/10 | earnings-adjacent positioning caps any bounce attempts |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $540.00 | — | -26.9% | 5/10 | value gravity toward 480 threshold pulls price lower |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $555.00 | — | -24.9% | 4/10 | tax-loss selling exhaustion and tentative stabilization |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $575.00 | — | -22.2% | 4/10 | cycle trough debate begins but rebound remains shallow |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $739.00 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +9 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 88.9% 3m 109.3% 6m 92.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.35 3m 4.62 5m 3.64 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 80.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | MU-20260730-001020-21b0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MU-20260730-005820-6b35 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MU-20260730-005820-6b35 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MU-20260730-005820-6b35 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MU-20260730-005820-6b35 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | MU-20260730-001020-21b0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | MU-20260730-001020-21b0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $739.00 | $575.00 | -22.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.