Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$86.55
6-month call
Bear -7.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$80.00
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.6% to $80.00
Predicted High
$86.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$80.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:34 am
Bear
NEE trends lower to
$80.00
(-7.6% from $86.55)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisNEE trades well above composite fair value near $57, and value gravity should pull it lower over months, but a risk-on regime and energy-transition sentiment support the near term. Expect a modest early drift, then gradual erosion as rate pressure on utilities and rich valuation reassert.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $92 on rate-cut catalysts, or forensic/quality re-rating higher, would invalidate the downward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $86.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $86.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $82.90–$90.20 typical range · internal point $86.90 | — | ±4.2% | 6/10 | risk-on tape and transition narrative steady near term |
| What actually happened: closed $86.22 on Aug 17, 2026 = -0.4% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $81.27–$91.83 typical range · internal point $86.20 | — | ±6.1% | 6/10 | sentiment fades slightly, no catalyst, mild drift |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $84.50 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | value gravity begins as regime cools |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $83.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | rate pressure on utilities weighs on multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $82.00 | — | -5.3% | 4/10 | year-end positioning, valuation gap resists rally |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $81.00 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $80.00 | — | -7.6% | 4/10 | continued mean reversion toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $81.12 (-6.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $86.55 |
| Composite fair value | $57.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $59.91 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $65.49 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +1 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 13.5% 3m 21.2% 6m 23.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.12 3m 0.01 5m 0.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | NEE-20260804-002727-cd80 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NEE-20260804-011400-dc3e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NEE-20260804-011400-dc3e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NEE-20260804-011400-dc3e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NEE-20260804-011400-dc3e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | NEE-20260804-002727-cd80 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | NEE-20260804-002727-cd80 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $86.55 | $80.00 | -7.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.