Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$82.20
6-month call
Bear -11.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$72.80
Great value below
$50.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.4% to $72.80
Predicted High
$81.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$72.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:02 pm
Bear
NFLX trends lower to
$72.80
(-11.4% from $82.20)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisNFLX trades at a huge premium to composite fair value (~$24) with cracking-monopoly sentiment and rising cost fears in a neutral regime. Near term the low beta and lack of earnings catalyst keep it drifting, but value gravity and negative sentiment pull it lower over the 6-month window, converging toward the deterministic baseline rather than fair value.
Invalidated ifA decisive reclaim of $90+ on positive subscriber or margin news, or evidence sentiment score turns positive, would falsify the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $82.20 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $82.20 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $76.41–$87.99 typical range · internal point $81.40 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Low beta drift, negative sentiment mild pressure |
| What actually happened: closed $78.25 on Sep 4, 2026 = -4.8% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $73.82–$90.58 typical range · internal point $80.20 | — | ±10.2% | 6/10 | Cost-fear narrative continues weighing on shares |
| What actually happened: closed $71.72 on Sep 24, 2026 = -12.8% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $78.00 | — | -5.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward baseline |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $76.50 | — | -6.9% | 5/10 | Platform-monopoly cracks reinforce derating |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $75.00 | — | -8.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-loss selling amplifies drift |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $73.50 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | January reset, valuation pressure persists |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $72.80 | — | -11.4% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $72.71 (-11.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $82.20 |
| Composite fair value | $23.76 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $24.81 |
| DCF fair value | $26.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $50.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +73 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.5% 3m 35.3% 6m 39.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.11 3m 0.25 5m 0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 25d behind | NFLX-20260730-143301-6114 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NFLX-20260824-150958-085c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NFLX-20260824-150958-085c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NFLX-20260824-150958-085c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NFLX-20260824-150958-085c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | NFLX-20260730-143301-6114 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | NFLX-20260730-143301-6114 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $82.20 | $72.80 | -11.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.