Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$192.27
6-month call
Bear -9.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$174.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.5% to $174.00
Predicted High
$199.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$174.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:22 pm
Bear
NTAP trends lower to
$174.00
(-9.5% from $192.27)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisNTAP is materially above composite fair value near $90-95 but riding a powerful hybrid-cloud/AI-data narrative with strong momentum (87% trailing 6m) and a risk-on tape. Near-term the path likely drifts higher on sentiment, then fades over months as value gravity and profit-taking pull it back, though not all the way to fair value within six months.
Invalidated ifA break below $170 on volume, a regime flip to risk-off, or a guide-down at the next earnings would invalidate the ride-then-fade in favor of faster mean reversion.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $192.27 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $192.27 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $168.74–$215.80 typical range · internal point $196.50 | — | ±12.2% | 6/10 | momentum and risk-on regime extend near-term drift higher |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $158.17–$226.37 typical range · internal point $199.00 | — | ±17.7% | 5/10 | AI-data narrative and bullish sell-side setup sustain bid |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $194.00 | — | +0.9% | 4/10 | early profit-taking as stretched valuation gets noticed |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $186.00 | — | -3.3% | 4/10 | earnings-window volatility, mean reversion begins |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $181.00 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | value gravity toward anchored-PE $121 asserts slowly |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $178.00 | — | -7.4% | 3/10 | narrative cooling, high beta amplifies any macro wobble |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $174.00 | — | -9.5% | 3/10 | drift toward deterministic baseline as premium compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $175.95 (-8.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $192.27 |
| Composite fair value | $90.82 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $94.95 |
| DCF fair value | $92.91 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $121.10 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.7% 3m 61.4% 6m 48.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.98 3m 1.47 5m 0.96 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 87.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | NTAP-20260822-162753-39ae |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTAP-20260822-164447-7215 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTAP-20260822-164447-7215 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTAP-20260822-164447-7215 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTAP-20260822-164447-7215 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | NTAP-20260822-162753-39ae |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | NTAP-20260822-162753-39ae |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $192.27 | $174.00 | -9.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.