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FRESH Analysis Report
Aug 22, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -12 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 65 · Value -75 · Sentiment 34 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $90.82 vs $192.27 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

NetApp, Inc.

NTAP NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
San Jose, CA 95128, United States netapp.com Updated Aug 22, 2:14am
Price
$192.28
Market Cap
$37.7B
Employees
11,700
Beta
1.43
Avg Volume
2,479,582
Last Dividend
$2.08
CEO
Mr. George Kurian

NetApp, Inc. is a data infrastructure and cloud solutions company that provides enterprises with technologies to manage, store, protect, and optimize their data across on-premises and multi-cloud environments. The company offers hardware storage systems, all-flash arrays, and converged infrastructure, alongside a broad portfolio of software-defined storage, data management, and cloud data services. NetApp focuses on enabling customers to run applications efficiently, support data-intensive workloads, and integrate with major public cloud providers for hybrid and multicloud architectures. Its solutions are used across sectors such as technology, financial services, healthcare, government, and manufacturing to support analytics, databases, virtualized environments, and modern application development. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, NetApp, Inc. plays a significant role in the enterprise IT landscape by helping organizations maximize the value, performance, and availability of their data while maintaining governance and security across complex, distributed infrastructures.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 22, 2026 4:36pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$192.27
as of Aug 22, 4:27pm (1d ago)
Change · Aug 22
-0.54 (-0.28%)
Day Range
$192.09 – $195.25
52-Week Range
$93.69 – $209.06
50-Day MA
$173.10
200-Day MA
$126.87
Volume
1,612,300.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 1d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 196,000,000.00
Float 194,834,531.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:44pm (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:44pm (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 22, 2026 4:33pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
30.28
Stock Price: $192.28
EPS (Diluted): 6.35
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
28.61
Stock Price: $192.28
Total Equity: $1.35B
Shares: 201,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
20.87
Market Cap: $37.73B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $2.07B
EBITDA: $1.85B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$38.7B
Market Cap: $37.73B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $2.07B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
78.5%
Gross Profit: $4.90B
Revenue: $6.24B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
26.8%
Operating Income: $1.67B
Revenue: $6.24B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
20.5%
Net Income: $1.28B
Revenue: $6.24B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
94.4%
Net Income: $1.28B
Total Equity: $1.35B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
73.3%
Operating Income: $1.67B
Tax Rate: 22.6%
Equity: $1.35B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $2.07B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.44
Current Assets: $5.78B
Current Liabilities: $4.02B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.84
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $2.49B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Total Equity: $1.35B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$31.03
Revenue: $6.24B
Shares: 201,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.72
Total Equity: $1.35B
Shares: 201,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$9.30
Operating CF: $2.07B
CapEx: -$198.00M
Shares: 201,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.1%
Last Dividend: $2.08
Stock Price: $192.28
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
32.4%
Dividends Paid: -$413.00M
Net Income: $1.28B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 22, 2026 4:33pm
Compares NTAP against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:44pm (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $5.7B $5.9B $6.2B
Cost of Revenue $2.1B $2.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.3B
Gross Profit $4.2B $4.2B $4.4B $4.6B $4.9B
Operating Expenses $3.1B $3.2B $3.2B $3.3B $3.2B
Operating Income $1.2B $1.0B $1.2B $1.3B $1.7B
Net Income $937.0M $1.3B $986.0M $1.2B $1.3B
EBITDA $1.3B $1.2B $1.4B $1.5B $1.9B
EPS $4.20 $5.87 $4.74 $5.81 $6.41
EPS (Diluted) $4.09 $5.79 $4.63 $5.67 $6.35
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:28pm (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $4.1B $2.3B $1.9B $2.7B $2.1B
Total Current Assets $5.9B $4.7B $4.9B $5.9B $5.8B
Total Assets $10.0B $9.8B $9.9B $10.8B $10.7B
Current Liabilities $4.0B $3.5B $4.1B $4.7B $4.0B
Long-Term Debt $2.4B $2.4B $2.0B $2.5B $2.5B
Total Liabilities $9.2B $8.7B $8.7B $9.8B $9.4B
Total Equity $838.0M $1.2B $1.1B $1.0B $1.4B
Retained Earnings $122.0M $265.0M $208.0M $0 $153.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:44pm (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $1.2B $1.1B $1.7B $1.5B $2.1B
Capital Expenditure -$226.0M -$239.0M -$155.0M -$168.0M -$198.0M
Free Cash Flow $985.0M $868.0M $1.5B $1.3B $1.9B
Acquisitions (net) -$380.0M -$491.0M $0 $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 -$250.0M $0 -$400.0M -$750.0M
Dividends Paid -$446.0M -$432.0M -$416.0M -$424.0M -$413.0M
Stock Buybacks -$600.0M -$850.0M -$900.0M -$1.2B -$950.0M
Net Change in Cash -$416.0M -$1.8B -$413.0M $840.0M -$674.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:44pm (1d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +4.4% +5.6%
Gross Profit Growth -0.3% +5.3% +4.1% +6.2%
Operating Income Growth -12.0% +19.3% +10.1% +25.2%
Net Income Growth +36.0% -22.6% +20.3% +7.6%
EBITDA Growth -8.1% +17.8% +8.6% +20.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:28pm (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-10 $0.52
2026-04-02 $0.52
2026-01-02 $0.52
2025-10-03 $0.52
2025-07-03 $0.52
2025-04-04 $0.52
2025-01-03 $0.52
2024-10-04 $0.52
2024-07-05 $0.52
2024-04-04 $0.50
2024-01-04 $0.50
2023-10-05 $0.50
2023-07-06 $0.50
2023-04-05 $0.50
2023-01-05 $0.50
2022-10-06 $0.50
2022-07-07 $0.50
2022-04-07 $0.50
2022-01-06 $0.50
2021-10-07 $0.50
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NTAP — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 16:52

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Holding NetApp is a mid-single-digit grower with double-digit EPS compounding from mix and buybacks, but it is expanding far slower than its stated category — steady, not structurally inflecting. conf 7/10
Share loss Category growing · Category (data/software infrastructure) is expanding at ~23% median with margins widening industry-wide; NetApp grows ~5.6%. Within its narrower enterprise-storage niche the gap is smaller — that niche grows high-single-digit — but NetApp is at best holding, not gaining, and is clearly ceding net-new AI-era workloads to hyperscaler-native and software-defined alternatives.
Next 2 quarters
Holding
Mid-single-digit revenue with a decelerating quarterly trend; all-flash and cloud services offset flat-to-down legacy hardware. EPS should still grow high-single-digit on buybacks and opex control even as component costs bite.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Holding
Full-year trajectory looks like low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth with EPS up high single digits. No product cycle or market shift visible that changes the slope in either direction within the fiscal year.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structural earnings power is intact — the installed base and ONTAP control-plane position defend the annuity — but nothing in the mix bends the growth rate upward while the category grows 4x faster. Share erosion continues at a slow, non-catastrophic pace.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
54 All-flash and AI-adjacent data infrastructure mix — The refresh from disk/hybrid to all-flash arrays plus AI data-pipeline workloads (ingest, training data lakes, RAG-era unstructured stores) keeps the installed base upgrading at higher ASPs. This is the mechanism behind revenue growing ~5.6% while earnings grow ~7.6% — mix, not volume.
43 Cloud/subscription storage services attach — First-party services with the three hyperscalers (ONTAP-based offerings sold through AWS/Azure/GCP consoles) grow well above corporate average and convert one-time box sales into recurring revenue, which supports the deceleration-resistant portion of the base.
49 EPS compounding above revenue — Four consecutive estimate beats (+3% to +9%) driven by operating discipline and share-count reduction. Earnings CAGR 13.8% vs revenue CAGR 5.0% shows a durable wedge between top-line and per-share growth that does not require demand acceleration.
30 Category demand tailwind — Sector in expansion phase with industry operating margins +9.0pp and revenue CAGR 20.1% over three years — enterprise data infrastructure spend is not contracting, so NetApp's problem is share, not a vanishing market.
Growth risks
61 Share loss versus a fast-growing category — Recent YoY 5.6% against industry 23.1% is a -17.5pp gap. Even allowing that the peer set includes higher-growth software, NetApp is capturing a shrinking slice of enterprise data spend as hyperscaler-native storage and software-defined competitors absorb net-new workloads.
47 NAND/DRAM component cost inflation — Memory pricing has turned sharply upward on AI-driven demand; as a systems vendor NetApp buys flash and resells it. Cost pass-through lags, so product gross margin is the most exposed line over the next several quarters — the likeliest source of a guidance disappointment.
39 Decelerating quarterly trend — Revenue confidence flags the quarterly trajectory as decelerating despite the positive annual print. That argues the current mid-single-digit rate is a ceiling, not a base, absent a new refresh cycle.
27 Enterprise capex sensitivity under macro headwinds — 10y at 4.69% and a macro-headwind backdrop delay on-prem hardware refreshes, which are discretionary and lumpy. Box revenue is the first line to slip when IT budgets tighten.
56 Price-implied growth far above any observable mechanism — The reverse-DCF demands 31.8% growth versus a 6.4% mechanical projection. No product line, market, or margin path in the current mix produces that; the structural rung carries the entire gap.
The world is spending more on data infrastructure than ever, but the spend is migrating to where the compute is — hyperscaler-native storage tiers and GPU-adjacent parallel filesystems. NetApp's structural bet is that enterprises keep a governed, on-prem/hybrid copy of their data for cost, sovereignty and latency reasons, and that ONTAP's ubiquity makes it the default control plane for that copy. That bet is holding: the installed base isn't leaving, and the first-party cloud services turn the migration into an annuity rather than a loss. What it does not do is put NetApp in the AI-buildout fast lane; the AI storage dollars concentrating around training clusters are mostly going elsewhere. Meanwhile the memory cost cycle has flipped from tailwind to headwind, which pressures the hardware margin that funds the software transition. Net: a durable, cash-generative franchise growing with enterprise IT budgets, not with AI.
Growth position composite -16
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
50Next 2 quarters · Holding
50Year 1 · Holding
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-16Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-22 16:43:51
Verdict Overvalued but not egregiously so — fair value $140-160 range vs $192; trim or avoid, but $95 synthesis target is too harsh given FCF quality and capital return discipline.

The raw numbers tell a mature, mid-single-digit growth story dressed up in cloud-transition clothing. Revenue grew from $5.66B (FY24) to $5.91B (FY25) to $6.24B (FY26) — a 5% CAGR that would be unremarkable if not for the 30x P/E. What's more troubling is the quarterly cadence: the Q4 FY26 print of $1.26B with a 32% net margin is jarringly out of pattern versus the $1.56-$1.71B range of the prior three quarters — either there's a seasonal reset I'm missing or the mix shifted dramatically (deferred revenue release, one-time item, tax benefit). The 32% margin is not repeatable; strip it out and TTM net margin sits closer to the 17-20% range the other quarters show. Recent YoY revenue growth of 5.6% and earnings YoY of 7.6% are decelerating, not accelerating, which directly contradicts the multiple.

The balance sheet is thin in a way that's underappreciated. Total equity of $1.35B against $2.49B of debt gives a D/E of 1.84 and drives the eye-popping 94% ROE and 73% ROIC — these are leverage artifacts, not evidence of a capital-light platform monopoly. The 28.6x P/B is essentially meaningless for the same reason: NetApp has been buying back stock aggressively, shrinking book value, which mechanically inflates return metrics. FCF of $1.87B on a $37.7B market cap is a ~5% FCF yield — respectable, but not cheap for a business growing 5% with no obvious inflection. At a more defensible 15-18x FCF multiple for a low-growth hardware-adjacent business, you get $28-34B market cap, or roughly $140-170/share — below current, above the synthesis DCF.

I largely agree with the synthesis direction but think the $95 fair value is too punitive. The DCF appears to be underweighting the sticky, recurring nature of Keystone/cloud services revenue and the disciplined capital return (32% payout, ongoing buybacks). A fair value in the $140-160 range feels more defensible than $95 — the stock is overvalued, but not 50% overvalued. The Market Forces call of "value trap masquerading as turnaround" is sharper than the synthesis: I'd note NetApp has been telling the hybrid-cloud story for a decade, and the 5% revenue CAGR is the honest verdict on how that transition has progressed. The narrative layer correctly flags the +102% premium to DCF as "anchored but stretched" — that's the right framing. Insider activity is uninformative — small option-exercise sales, no meaningful buying, which is neutral-to-mildly-negative for a stock at all-time-highs territory.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: NetApp has genuinely won share in AI/ML training data pipelines (ONTAP AI, NVIDIA partnerships), and if enterprise AI capex accelerates in 2026-27, storage-adjacent players benefit before the picks-and-shovels narrative reaches them. If revenue growth re-accelerates to 8-10% with margin expansion to 22-24% net, current multiples look defensible. But that's a bet, not a base case, and the decelerating quarterly trend argues against it. The Q4 anomaly needs explanation before any bull case can be built — a 32% margin quarter following three sub-20% quarters is either a gift that won't repeat or an accounting artifact that will reverse. I dissent from the synthesis's magnitude (too bearish at $95) but agree on direction: this is overvalued, and the risk/reward at $192 is asymmetric to the downside because the narrative premium requires execution NetApp hasn't demonstrated in a decade of trying.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-22 16:44:06
Verdict Overvalued at $192 — a superb cash-generative infrastructure franchise, but the current multiple prices in a cloud-transition success story that the 5-6% revenue growth profile does not yet support; I’d need either $130-$145 or clear 8-10% growth reacceleration.

At $192, NetApp is being valued like a higher-quality growth infrastructure name than the actual numbers justify. The business is good, profitable, and improving, but the scale of the premium is hard to defend. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $6.24 billion, up 5.6% from $5.91 billion, while net income rose to $1.28 billion from $1.19 billion. That is respectable, not transformative. The more important point is the shape of the model: gross margin is an excellent 78.6%, operating margin reached 26.8%, and free cash flow was $1.87 billion, or roughly 30% of revenue. This is a mature cash machine with some growth, not a business entering a new hypergrowth phase. On that base, the market is paying 30.3x earnings, 6.2x sales, and 20.9x EV/EBITDA. For a company growing revenue about 5% and earnings in the low teens, those multiples are stretched.

The quarterly pattern reinforces that this is still a seasonal, somewhat lumpy infrastructure vendor rather than a clean recurring software comp deserving a premium software multiple. April quarter revenue was $1.26 billion versus $1.07 billion a year earlier, but that follows January and October quarters both at $1.71 billion and July at $1.56 billion. Net income margins swing from 14.9% in July 2025 to 32.1% in April 2026 and 31.9% in April 2025, which says more about mix, buybacks, tax items, or seasonal operating leverage than about a steadily compounding SaaS model. Annual profit quality is real — operating cash flow of $2.07 billion comfortably exceeded net income of $1.28 billion — but that strength is already fully capitalized. At the current market cap of $37.7 billion, the stock trades around 20x free cash flow. That is not insane in absolute terms, but it is rich for a company with modest top-line expansion and ongoing exposure to legacy storage dynamics.

The balance sheet also argues against paying up too aggressively. Net debt is manageable at roughly $420 million, but equity is only $1.35 billion, which makes the 28.6x price-to-book and 94% ROE look more optical than economic; this is a buyback-compressed equity base, not evidence of a software monopoly. Debt to equity at 1.84 is fine given the cash generation, yet it undercuts any simplistic “fortress balance sheet deserving scarcity premium” argument. The insider tape is not alarming, but it is not supportive either: recent activity is dominated by option exercises and small sales, not open-market conviction buying at these levels. Put differently, I see an excellent operator harvesting a high-margin niche, but the stock price implies the cloud/data infrastructure repositioning will deliver a longer runway and greater multiple durability than the raw growth profile shows.

The best pushback is that the market may be rationally paying for quality, not growth. NetApp has taken revenue from $5.66 billion in fiscal 2024 to $6.24 billion in fiscal 2026 while expanding operating income from $1.21 billion to $1.67 billion; that margin gain is meaningful. Earnings have compounded faster than sales, free cash flow quality is strong, and a 1.1% dividend plus continuing repurchases can make a low-growth business highly attractive if margins keep widening. A bull would also note that if hybrid cloud and data services keep lifting mix, today’s 26.8% operating margin may not be peak, and 30x earnings can compress quickly if EPS keeps compounding at a mid-teens rate. I weigh that differently because the stock is already priced for that favorable path. When a mature infrastructure company trades at more than 6x revenue, you need either sustained double-digit revenue growth or a credible path to much higher recurring revenue and margin durability; the briefing does not show that yet.

What would change my mind is straightforward: I would need to see revenue growth reaccelerate from mid-single digits to at least 8-10% for several quarters while holding operating margin above 25%, or free cash flow move sustainably above $2.2 billion without financial engineering driving the story. If the next few quarters show revenue materially above the recent $1.71 billion peak quarter run rate, with net margins staying near 20% rather than bouncing around the mid-teens outside the April quarter, then the premium multiple becomes easier to defend. Absent that, fair value is much lower than the current quote; I would need a price closer to $130-$145 to get constructive on the existing fundamentals.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-22 16:44:46
Verdict Overvalued at $192; quality FCF supports ~$120–130, not a 30× multiple on 5% growth

The numbers describe a high-quality mature infrastructure franchise that has already extracted most of the easy margin upside and is now being priced as if a second growth chapter is certain. Fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.24B is only 5.6% above the prior year’s $5.91B; the three mid-year quarters grew 1–4% year-over-year while the seasonally weak April quarter jumped 18% to $1.26B, which is encouraging but still leaves trailing growth in the mid-single digits. Earnings and free cash flow look better—net income $1.28B, operating margin 26.8%, FCF $1.87B on only $198M of capex—because gross margin sits at 78.5% and the company is an efficient converter of profit into cash. That $1.87B FCF against a $37.7B equity value produces a roughly 5% free-cash-flow yield. At 30× trailing earnings and 21× EV/EBITDA, the market is paying a pure-software multiple for mid-single-digit top-line growth and high-teens earnings growth that is largely margin-driven rather than volume-driven. The balance sheet is fine (net debt under $0.5B) but the 94% ROE and 28× price-to-book are optical artifacts of a shrunken $1.35B equity base, not evidence of a compounding growth machine.

What stands out is the gap between cash-flow reality and the multiple. Operating cash flow matched cash on the balance sheet at $2.07B; the business throws off cash with little reinvestment need. Yet revenue CAGR of 5% and recent quarterly deceleration outside one seasonal print do not support a 30× earnings multiple or a 6.2× sales multiple. The valuation synthesis fair value near $95 is aggressive on the low side—quality of FCF and sticky enterprise relationships deserve something closer to 18–20× earnings, call it $115–130—but even that leaves the stock 30–50% expensive at $192. The “hybrid cloud data services” narrative is doing the heavy lifting; the reported numbers have not yet shown the reacceleration that would justify embedding another decade of multiple expansion.

The strongest counter-argument is that the market is correctly capitalizing a durable software-mix shift that the trailing figures understate. April-quarter revenue acceleration, operating income rising from $1.34B to $1.67B year-over-year, and an earnings CAGR of 13.8% show real operating leverage. Gross margin near 79% and FCF conversion above 140% of net income are characteristic of a platform that has already escaped pure hardware commoditization; if cloud data services and AI-related unstructured data workloads continue to lift the mix, mid-teens earnings growth can persist longer than a simple 5% revenue CAGR implies. A skeptic of the cheap-fair-value camp would also note that EV/FCF around 20× is not outrageous for a sticky enterprise franchise with net-cash-like leverage and a 1.1% dividend that is only 32% of earnings. Those points have merit; I simply weigh the still-anemic organic growth and the absence of sustained double-digit revenue prints more heavily than the margin story. Paying 30× for execution that has so far delivered 5% sales growth is a bet on narrative, not on the ledger.

I would reverse to neutral or better only if two consecutive quarters show revenue growth reaccelerating through 10%+ with cloud/services mix explicitly lifting gross margin another 100–150 bp, or if fiscal 2027 guidance implies FCF above $2.2B while the multiple compresses toward 22–23× forward earnings. Persistent sub-6% growth or any sign that hyperscalers are taking share in the hybrid layer would confirm the overvaluation case.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-22 16:54:30
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Great business, bad price — pass, revisit sub-$120 8/10
Genuinely strong storage franchise trading at roughly 2x deserved value on a rented AI-data narrative — pass here, buyer in the low $100s.
The cruxWhether the hybrid-cloud/AI-data story converts into durable 8-10% revenue growth; without that, the ~$95 composite fair value wins and today's $192 is air.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NTAP's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+65
Strong
edge √Σ 138 · risk √Σ 60 · conf 8/10

NetApp shows the profile of a well-run mature earner. Revenue is grinding higher (5.66B to 5.91B to 6.24B), gross margin sits in a rare band for hardware-inclusive infrastructure at ~78%, and operating margin has expanded meaningfully from 21.5% to 26.8% over three years — real operating leverage, not just cost cuts. FCF of $1.87B on $6.24B revenue is a ~30% FCF margin, and OCF/NI of 1.35x plus accruals of -3.7% of assets say the reported earnings are backed by cash, not accounting stretch. Beneish M at -2.78 and Altman Z at 3.72 corroborate clean books. Capital discipline is a genuine strength: diluted shares fell from 229M to 201M (-3.2% CAGR) with buybacks running 264% of SBC, so per-share economics are compounding faster than the top line. Net cash of $1.10B on $3.58B liquid cash means the buybacks and dividend are self-funded, not levered. Insider tape is neutral — small planned sales and option exercises with tax-withholding, no open-market buying but nothing alarming either. What keeps this from a higher rung is the growth profile and moat ambiguity. Revenue growth is mid-single-digit at best, net income in 2026 ($1.28B) has still not decisively exceeded 2023 ($1.27B), and NetApp competes in a storage market with credible pressure from Pure Storage, Dell, and hyperscaler-native storage. It is durable, but not obviously widening its moat.

Strengths 4
m78
Operating leverage is real
Operating margin expanded from 21.5% (2024) to 26.8% (2026) on modest revenue growth, with gross margin holding ~78% — indicates pricing power and cost discipline, not one-time gains.
m72
Per-share compounding via buybacks
Diluted share count fell from 229M to 201M (-3.2% CAGR); buyback/SBC ratio of 264.6% means dilution from 6.1%-of-revenue SBC is more than absorbed.
m68
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.35x, accruals -3.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.78, Altman Z 3.72 — all four mechanical checks corroborate that $1.28B net income is backed by $1.87B FCF.
m55
Self-funding balance sheet
$3.58B liquid cash, $1.10B net cash, and $1.87B annual FCF — no external capital dependence for buybacks, dividends, or R&D.
Concerns 3
m45
Growth is modest and lumpy
Revenue grew ~5% in 2025 and ~5.6% in 2026; net income in 2026 ($1.28B) is barely above 2023 ($1.27B), suggesting the earnings expansion is driven mostly by margin and share count, not volume.
m35
Competitive intensity in storage
Storage infrastructure faces structural pressure from hyperscaler-native storage and share competitors; the data does not show clear moat widening, only defense.
m20
No insider open-market buying
12-month tape shows 6 sales ($898K) and zero P-buys; not a red flag given amounts are small and tied to option/tax activity, but no conviction signal either.
This is a textbook mature earner doing the right things: growing margins, shrinking share count, generating real cash, and keeping the books clean. I would call it Strong without hesitation — the numbers are internally consistent and the discipline is visible. What holds me back from calling it a fortress-tier compounder is that the underlying business is only inching forward on revenue and sits in a competitive storage market where I cannot see a widening moat from the data alone. It is a well-run company harvesting a good franchise, not a category-defining one.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Segment mix between hybrid cloud storage and public cloud services (growth vs. legacy)
  • Customer concentration and any hyperscaler partnership dependencies
  • Deferred revenue and RPO trend to gauge forward demand
  • Whether the 26.8% operating margin includes any one-time benefits or restructuring reversals
  • R&D spend as % of revenue and any capitalized software costs affecting FCF quality
Valuation / Mispricing
-75
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 118 · conf 6/10
Price $192.27 vs deserved ~$95, roughly 2x - a ~50% premium to composite FV, ~37% premium even to the friendliest anchored-P/E read. attractive below $115.00

Every valuation lens points the same direction: DCF at $92.91, EPV floor at $56.37, and an anchored P/E at $121.10 converge to a signal-adjusted fair value of $94.95 - roughly half the $192.27 price. Even the most generous of the three methods (anchored P/E) leaves ~37% downside. The composite implies a -51% gap, which is the kind of read you get when a mature, low-single-digit-growth storage franchise is being valued like a platform compounder. Earnings quality is high (score 3), so there is no haircut to hide behind - the deserved value is what it is. The Company-Quality lens grades this Strong (65), which nudges deserved value up, but not to $192. A cash-generative, share-shrinking storage franchise with inching revenue growth is a textbook mature earner - it deserves a fair multiple, not a platform multiple. To justify today's price you have to believe subscription/hybrid ARR inflects hard and durably reprices the whole stack. That is the bull narrative, and it appears fully in the price already.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Real cash and buybacks support some premium
Clean earnings quality, margin expansion, and a shrinking share count justify trading above EPV and above the raw DCF - but not to $192.
Rich / priced-in 3
m78
All three methods below price
DCF $92.91, EPV $56.37, anchored P/E $121.10 - the ceiling of the three is still ~37% under $192.27. No method supports the current quote.
m70
Priced like a platform, growing like a box maker
Composite FV $94.95 implies the market is paying ~2x deserved value on the hybrid/subscription re-rating thesis, while revenue only inches forward per the quality lens.
m55
EPV floor is punishing
The no-growth earnings power value of $56.37 says roughly 70% of today's cap is riding on future growth - a heavy ask for mature storage.
I don't see the cheapness here. Three independent lenses put fair value between $56 and $121 with a composite near $95, and the tape is at $192. The business is genuinely good - Strong quality, clean earnings, disciplined capital return - but I'm being asked to pay roughly double for it, and the growth simply isn't there to close that gap without a hybrid-cloud miracle. This is a Rich, not an Overvalued-blowup; it's a fine business at a bad price. I'd want it in the low $100s before it interests me on valuation alone.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Subscription/public-cloud ARR growth rate and gross margin trajectory in the next print
  • Guidance on billings and deferred revenue - is the hybrid mix actually accelerating
  • One-time items or tax benefits inflating trailing EPS that feed the anchored-P/E number
  • Capital return pace (buyback authorization use) that could compress share count faster than modeled
General Sentiment
+34
Tailwind
tail √Σ 96 · head √Σ 61 · conf 6/10

NetApp is riding a platform-monopoly narrative with strong intensity: the market has embraced the hybrid-cloud plus AI-data story, and the May 2026 blowout print (a 22-35% single-day gap) crystallized that narrative into price. That prior surge is doing ongoing work on sentiment, anchoring the stock near $192 well above any DCF-based fair value because holders are paying for narrative continuation, not cash flows. Oppenheimer's pre-print call for a beat and raise is exactly the kind of sell-side reinforcement that keeps momentum names bid into a catalyst. The macro tape is mildly risk-on but fragile (VIX 15, S&P just off highs, 10y at 4.69%), and with a 1.43 beta NTAP is more exposed to tape shifts than a defensive infra name should be. A -5% single-session drop on Aug 19 in an up market hints that positioning is crowded and reactive - the story is working but the stock trades like a high-beta AI derivative, not a boring storage box. Net: tailwind from narrative and analyst tone, partially checked by macro fragility and the fact that the easy narrative re-rate has already happened.

Tailwinds 3
m65
Active AI-data / hybrid-cloud narrative
Platform-monopoly archetype at strong intensity gives NTAP a story it didn't have two years ago; the May blowout welded AI-demand language onto the ticker and the market is still paying that premium.
m55
Bullish sell-side setup into print
Oppenheimer flagging a beat-and-raise 24 hours before results is the kind of pre-catalyst signaling that pulls in momentum buyers and pressures shorts on a name already trending.
m45
Positive momentum and prior gap higher
The May 2026 22-35% move is still the dominant technical fact on the chart; sentiment anchors to that event and treats dips as buyable until the narrative cracks.
Headwinds 3
m40
High beta into a fragile tape
Beta 1.43 with VIX ticking up and the S&P off its highs means any risk-off flinch marks NTAP down harder than the sector average - the Aug 19 -5% day in an up market shows the reflex is live.
m35
Rates and stretched market PE
10y at 4.69% and market PE 25.7 compress the discount factor on story-stocks trading at multiples of DCF; NTAP at ~2x fair value is exactly the profile that gets sold first if the tape turns.
m30
Narrative durability is only moderate
Cult coefficient is low and durability moderate - this is a rented story, not an owned one like the pure-play AI names, so the sentiment lift is vulnerable to one soft print or a hyperscaler commoditization headline.
The non-fundamental wind at NTAP's back is real: a credible hybrid-cloud/AI-data narrative, a fresh blowout-print memory, and analysts leaning bullish into the catalyst. But this is a rented narrative on a 1.43-beta stock trading at roughly 2x DCF - the tailwind is genuine but not the kind of decisive, cult-driven force I'd call dominant. I read it as a moderate tailwind that could flip fast if the print disappoints or the tape sours; for now the pressure leans up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Fiscal Q1 print vs the Oppenheimer beat-and-raise setup - a mere in-line result would puncture the narrative
  • Any hyperscaler commentary reframing on-prem/hybrid storage as commoditized
  • VIX behavior and 10y yield - a break above 17 VIX or 4.85% yield would disproportionately hit this beta profile
  • Whether AI-data workload disclosures actually accelerate subscription revenue growth or stay in the marketing layer
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-16
Holding
edge √Σ 90 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10

The world is spending more on data infrastructure than ever, but the spend is migrating to where the compute is — hyperscaler-native storage tiers and GPU-adjacent parallel filesystems. NetApp's structural bet is that enterprises keep a governed, on-prem/hybrid copy of their data for cost, sovereignty and latency reasons, and that ONTAP's ubiquity makes it the default control plane for that copy. That bet is holding: the installed base isn't leaving, and the first-party cloud services turn the migration into an annuity rather than a loss. What it does not do is put NetApp in the AI-buildout fast lane; the AI storage dollars concentrating around training clusters are mostly going elsewhere. Meanwhile the memory cost cycle has flipped from tailwind to headwind, which pressures the hardware margin that funds the software transition. Net: a durable, cash-generative franchise growing with enterprise IT budgets, not with AI.

Growth drivers 4
m54
All-flash and AI-adjacent data infrastructure mix
The refresh from disk/hybrid to all-flash arrays plus AI data-pipeline workloads (ingest, training data lakes, RAG-era unstructured stores) keeps the installed base upgrading at higher ASPs. This is the mechanism behind revenue growing ~5.6% while earnings grow ~7.6% — mix, not volume.
m43
Cloud/subscription storage services attach
First-party services with the three hyperscalers (ONTAP-based offerings sold through AWS/Azure/GCP consoles) grow well above corporate average and convert one-time box sales into recurring revenue, which supports the deceleration-resistant portion of the base.
m49
EPS compounding above revenue
Four consecutive estimate beats (+3% to +9%) driven by operating discipline and share-count reduction. Earnings CAGR 13.8% vs revenue CAGR 5.0% shows a durable wedge between top-line and per-share growth that does not require demand acceleration.
m30
Category demand tailwind
Sector in expansion phase with industry operating margins +9.0pp and revenue CAGR 20.1% over three years — enterprise data infrastructure spend is not contracting, so NetApp's problem is share, not a vanishing market.
Growth risks 5
m61
Share loss versus a fast-growing category
Recent YoY 5.6% against industry 23.1% is a -17.5pp gap. Even allowing that the peer set includes higher-growth software, NetApp is capturing a shrinking slice of enterprise data spend as hyperscaler-native storage and software-defined competitors absorb net-new workloads.
m47
NAND/DRAM component cost inflation
Memory pricing has turned sharply upward on AI-driven demand; as a systems vendor NetApp buys flash and resells it. Cost pass-through lags, so product gross margin is the most exposed line over the next several quarters — the likeliest source of a guidance disappointment.
m39
Decelerating quarterly trend
Revenue confidence flags the quarterly trajectory as decelerating despite the positive annual print. That argues the current mid-single-digit rate is a ceiling, not a base, absent a new refresh cycle.
m27
Enterprise capex sensitivity under macro headwinds
10y at 4.69% and a macro-headwind backdrop delay on-prem hardware refreshes, which are discretionary and lumpy. Box revenue is the first line to slip when IT budgets tighten.
m56
Price-implied growth far above any observable mechanism
The reverse-DCF demands 31.8% growth versus a 6.4% mechanical projection. No product line, market, or margin path in the current mix produces that; the structural rung carries the entire gap.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -9.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, NTAP was $192.27. We expect it to be $174.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $115.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.

Price when predicted$192.27
Our estimate for Feb 2027$174.00-9.5%
Great value below$115.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06