Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$187.18
6-month call
Neutral +0.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$187.50
Great value below
$158.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.2% to $187.50
Predicted High
$187.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$182.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:15 pm
Neutral
NTRS trends range-bound to
$187.50
(+0.2% from $187.18)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisNTRS trades slightly above composite fair value ($177.52) in a low-narrative, mildly risk-on tape. Expect a gentle mean-reversion drift toward the $180 anchor over 1-3 months, then stabilization near the deterministic endpoint as anchored-PE ($185.65) provides gravity. No earnings catalyst in-window limits both upside and downside.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $195 or below $170 on volume, or a surprise pre-announcement, would falsify the mean-reversion drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $187.18 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $187.18 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $186.20 | — | -0.5% | 7/10 | Mild drift lower as risk-on tape fails to lift custodian |
| What actually happened: closed $184.88 on Sep 8, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $184.50 | — | -1.4% | 6/10 | Gentle mean-reversion toward anchored-PE fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $175.73 on Sep 25, 2026 = -6.1% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $182.00 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $183.50 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Stabilization near anchored-PE floor around 185 |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $185.00 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning supports quality custodian names |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $186.50 | — | -0.4% | 4/10 | January flows and rate stability support drift higher |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $187.50 | — | +0.2% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $188.07 (+0.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Too little price history for NTRS to size the realism noise — using a default volatility.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $187.18 |
| Composite fair value | $177.52 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $164.87 |
| DCF fair value | $173.46 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $185.65 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $158.00 |
| Value net score | -50 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +47 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m — 3m — 6m — |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | — |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m — 3m — 5m — |
| Trailing 6-month return | — |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | NTRS-20260826-040001-2e79 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTRS-20260826-043910-afc3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTRS-20260826-043910-afc3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTRS-20260826-043910-afc3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NTRS-20260826-043910-afc3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | NTRS-20260826-040001-2e79 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $187.18 | $187.50 | +0.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.