Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$219.67
6-month call
Bull +26.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$278.00
Great value below
$195.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+26.6% to $278.00
Predicted High
$278.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$224.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
NVDA trends higher to
$278.00
(+26.6% from $219.67)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVDA sits well below composite fair value ($337) with strong quality, five straight beats, and a euphoric AI narrative amplified by Huang's 2027 doubling call. High beta and a neutral regime allow near-term chop, but value gravity and momentum should pull the tape higher over six months toward the deterministic $283 baseline.
Invalidated ifA break below $195 on heavy volume or a Huang/guidance walk-back on 2027 doubling claim
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $219.67 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $219.67 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $202.32–$237.02 typical range · internal point $224.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Narrative momentum and Huang megaphone lift high-beta name |
| What actually happened: closed $230.86 on Oct 1, 2026 = +5.1% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $194.53–$244.81 typical range · internal point $228.00 | — | ±11.4% | 5/10 | Drift higher as AI capex headlines persist |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $234.00 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | Consolidation; no catalyst, macro chop weighs |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $245.00 | — | +11.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into AI winners resumes |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $258.00 | — | +17.5% | 4/10 | January CES and hyperscaler capex guides support |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $270.00 | — | +22.9% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings run as 2027 doubling narrative crystallizes |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $278.00 | — | +26.6% | 3/10 | Value gap closes toward composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $283.07 (+28.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $219.67 |
| Composite fair value | $337.14 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $339.95 |
| DCF fair value | $355.05 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $397.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $195.00 |
| Value net score | +22 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +75 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.6% 3m 39.6% 6m 40.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.56 3m 2.15 5m 2.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | NVDA-20260729-000735-717e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVDA-20260917-161152-a6dd |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVDA-20260917-161152-a6dd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVDA-20260917-161152-a6dd |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVDA-20260917-161152-a6dd |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | NVDA-20260729-111118-fc61 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | NVDA-20260729-111118-fc61 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $219.67 | $278.00 | +26.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 22, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.