Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$6,267.35
6-month call
Neutral +0.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$6,280.00
Great value below
$5,200.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.2% to $6,280.00
Predicted High
$6,280.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$5,980.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:40 am
Neutral
NVR trends range-bound to
$6,280.00
(+0.2% from $6,267.35)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVR trades above composite fair value while sentiment is deeply negative and the 6-month tape is down 18.8%; expect early drift lower toward the sub-$5,900 anchor, then gradual stabilization as low beta and quality dampen further downside, ending modestly below current with mild recovery.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $6,600 on strong housing data or below $5,400 on a rate shock would falsify this mean-reverting path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $6,267.35 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $6,267.35 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $5,887.42–$6,647.28 typical range · internal point $6,210.00 | — | ±6.1% | 6/10 | Negative sentiment and weak momentum bleed continues near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $6,433.97 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.7% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $5,716.79–$6,817.91 typical range · internal point $6,120.00 | — | ±8.8% | 6/10 | Drift toward composite fair value amid sticky-rate narrative |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $5,980.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Housing de-rating pressures NVR toward $5,932 anchor |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $6,050.00 | — | -3.5% | 4/10 | Quality and low beta cushion downside, buyers step in |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $6,150.00 | — | -1.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning and stabilization near fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $6,220.00 | — | -0.8% | 3/10 | Mild recovery as rate expectations reset into new year |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $6,280.00 | — | +0.2% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline as sentiment normalizes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $6,420.16 (+2.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $6,267.35 |
| Composite fair value | $5,932.53 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $4,964.02 |
| DCF fair value | $6,188.17 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $5,421.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $5,200.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +83 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.9% 3m 30.4% 6m 31.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.57 3m 0.55 5m 0.71 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -18.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NVR-20260803-171319-c254 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVR-20260803-180245-48f3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVR-20260803-180245-48f3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVR-20260803-180245-48f3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVR-20260803-180245-48f3 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NVR-20260803-171319-c254 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NVR-20260803-171319-c254 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $6,267.35 | $6,280.00 | +0.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.