Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$158.86
6-month call
Bull +8.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$173.00
Great value below
$145.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.9% to $173.00
Predicted High
$173.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$160.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
NVS trends higher to
$173.00
(+8.9% from $158.86)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVS trades below composite fair value with modest quality support, a calm risk-on tape, and positive cardiovascular data providing near-term lift. Value gravity toward $170-175 dominates over months, with the deterministic baseline reasonable but slight upside skew from signal-adjusted anchors.
Invalidated ifBreak below $145 on heavy volume or regime flip to risk-off with sector rotation out of defensives
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $158.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $158.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $150.71–$167.01 typical range · internal point $160.20 | — | ±5.1% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and cardio data momentum carry lift |
| What actually happened: closed $159.99 on Sep 4, 2026 = +0.7% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $147.05–$170.67 typical range · internal point $161.50 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, drift toward fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $141.28 on Sep 22, 2026 = -11.1% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $163.75 | — | +3.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity engages, defensive bid steady |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $166.50 | — | +4.8% | 5/10 | Anchored PE zone approached, slow grind higher |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $169.00 | — | +6.4% | 5/10 | Year-end defensive rotation supports low-beta name |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $171.50 | — | +8.0% | 4/10 | Approaching composite fair value plus DCF pull |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $173.00 | — | +8.9% | 4/10 | Convergence near baseline endpoint, upside capped near-term |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $173.71 (+9.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $158.86 |
| Composite fair value | $161.98 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $216.25 |
| DCF fair value | $196.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $168.29 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $145.00 |
| Value net score | +3 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.2% 3m 25.7% 6m 23.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.02 3m -0.14 5m 0.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 23d behind | NVS-20260730-203014-f2ab |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260822-141324-56fd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260822-141324-56fd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260822-141324-56fd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260822-141324-56fd |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | NVS-20260822-135549-2627 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | NVS-20260822-135549-2627 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $158.86 | $173.00 | +8.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $158.44 | $172.50 | +8.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.