Made on
Aug 15, 2026
Price at call
$234.66
6-month call
Bear -11.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$208.00
Great value below
$160.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.4% to $208.00
Predicted High
$232.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$208.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 15, 2026 1:11 am
Bear
NXPI trends lower to
$208.00
(-11.4% from $234.66)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisNXPI trades far above fair value with cracking narrative and negative sentiment, but risk-on tape and no earnings catalyst keep the drift shallow near-term; value gravity pulls lower over months toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA close above 260 on strong auto/industrial guidance, or regime flip to risk-off accelerating decline below 190 fast.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $234.66 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 15, 2026 | — | $234.66 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 29, 2026 | $209.60–$259.72 typical range · internal point $232.50 | — | ±10.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape supports drift, no catalyst near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 15, 2026 | $198.35–$270.97 typical range · internal point $228.00 | — | ±15.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment weight begins pressuring price mildly |
| 2 months | Oct 15, 2026 | $222.00 | — | -5.4% | 5/10 | Auto growth doubts resurface into Q3 print approach |
| 3 months | Nov 15, 2026 | $215.00 | — | -8.4% | 5/10 | Earnings print exposes softer guidance, value gravity |
| 4 months | Dec 15, 2026 | $218.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning stabilizes after post-earnings dip |
| 5 months | Jan 15, 2027 | $212.00 | — | -9.7% | 4/10 | New-year reset, analysts trim auto estimates further |
| 6 months | Feb 15, 2027 | $208.00 | — | -11.4% | 3/10 | Convergence toward anchored PE floor as narrative fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $212.38 (-9.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $234.66 |
| Composite fair value | $130.25 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $118.99 |
| DCF fair value | $85.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $265.77 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $160.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +47 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.1% 3m 53.6% 6m 55.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.54 3m 2.39 5m 1.83 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | NXPI-20260815-001524-85ca |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-NXPI-20260815-003200-98be |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-NXPI-20260815-003200-98be |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-NXPI-20260815-003200-98be |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-NXPI-20260815-003200-98be |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | NXPI-20260815-001524-85ca |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | NXPI-20260815-001524-85ca |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $234.66 | $208.00 | -11.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $278.39 | $242.04 | -13.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.